setup The A+ S1 FADE (ORB short)

[kingstonstock85 0]

Hi BBT Family,

Herewith I would like to share my main go to setup at the open. 

So basically, it is a FADE setup that takes advantage of range, resistance and support. What I look for are stocks that are up at least 200% (3x) from their 3-month lows, have elevated RVOL (min of 1.5), have decent AVOL (for liquidity) and range (min of 0.50 ATR). These are the fundamental stock search metrics. FWIW, I also look at other fundamentals like float, IO and short float. But I have yet to find indicators that add to this particular setup. 

The most important indicators are two intra-day metrics: 1) a strong prior day opening drive and 2) a strong close (by which I mean a stock that closes near its highs).

The reason for this is that stocks that have a strong opening drive the prior day, tend to have a weak opening drive the next day. This is even more so, when a stock also closes strong on the day. My thesis is that a stock has run and those whom have held want to take their profits. 

So basically, I am looking at an overextended stock that is also "overextended" from a short term / intra-day perceptive.

The play itself is "simple": You chart out support and resistance and short into a weak opening drive (near S1 support). Reasons2cover should be EMA/SMA or level 2 indicators like bids holding at key levels / whole levels or EMA/SMA's etc. I found it nice that this setup ties in with Andrews ORB setup, but also different because it does not focus on the opening range. I have added the ORB to my S1 FADE setup as a metric to short a pop and use the top end of the candle or VWAP as a guide / stop.

There are many challenges I need to work on though. One of the challenges I found on an overextended chart is that they also tend to be.. boring. Although AVOL might be liquid, there is always a chance the stock just does not move (yes, sideways). That is why RVOL is so important. Preferably this is a setup I trade with fresh news, like positive earnings, sales update or analyst upgrade. 

My backup here, if the trade does not work is, what I call, the R1 FADE. Which follows the same fundamentals, usually suitable for stocks that did not close near its prior days high, but also held above VWAP. This setup is my backup for when a stock does not have either a strong or weak opening drive. It is important though a stock is green. Which ties in with an "indecisive" opening and still have an opportunity on the short side. This setup ties in with the VWAP reversal trade (I think) but is different too as the focus is around R1 resistance.

Does this make sense to you? What are your thoughts? Very interested in feedback from the community. 

Thanks in advance for any feedback!  

[daniel pak 0]

have you backtestes? whats your winning percentage and average R per winning trade?

[kingstonstock85 0]

3 to 4R, winning percentage just under 60%. Higher if a stock closes high the prior day.