Rob C's Swing Trading Journal

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/24/2019

Not much occurring today. All three swing trades were down slightly today on low volume so no actions today.

Happy Holidays to everyone!!!

 

Long STX at 59.95. First target 61. Stop 59. Still holding.

SLB Long at 35.74. First partial at 37.25. Second/third partial at 37.81 and 38.32. Fourth/fifth partial at 38.78 and 39.33. Sixth partial at 40.48. Stop moved up to 40. Still holding.

Long BIDU on 12/20 at 128.03. Stop 126.80. First target $130 (also VWAP-1D). Still holding.

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/26/2019

Long CRWD at 49.58 from Brian’s watchlist. First target at 50.50 (blue line) which is also 1.5R. Stop at $49. I only took half shares so I may take a second entrance if it holds $50 and then I would move my target. I like the bull flag on the 60min chart.

 

Exited SLB today. Long at 35.74. First partial at 37.25. Second/third partial at 37.81 and 38.32. Fourth/fifth partial at 38.78 and 39.33. Sixth partial at 40.48. SLB weak today. The price dipped below $40 a few pennies triggering the exit. It was still a very good swing trade.

 

Long BIDU on 12/20 at 128.03. Stop 126.80. First target $130 (also VWAP-1D). BIDU down a little today. Still above stop. I don’t see a reason to exit yet. Still holding.

 

Long STX at 59.95. First target 61. Stop 59. Up slightly today. Still holding.

 

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/27/2019

Stopped out of CRWD and BIDU shortly after opening this morning. Luckily I had half shares (starter position) in both positions.

Long CRWD at 49.58 from Brian’s watchlist. First target at 50.50. Stop at $49. Stopped out this morning.

Long BIDU on 12/20 at 128.03. Stop 126.80. First target $130 (also VWAP-1D). Stopped out this morning.

Long STX at 59.95. First target 61. Stop 59. Down today. Still holding.

[Rob C 826]

Swing Trade watchlist for week of 12/30/19

 

GE. I like the double bottom on the daily chart and one more positive day MACD will cross. But you can see a double top and head and shoulders pattern as well.

The weekly chart shows a nice bull flag finding support.

 

The last hour of trading GE did break an 11.20 resistance level it has been struggling for 2 days and the 200MA-60min. But it couldn’t stay above it so GE is still on the watch list. Looking for a break and hold of the 200MA-60min to go long. I am worried there is a daily level at 11.26 that it may find resistance. But if it clears it could run to the next level at $11.60.

 

 

 

 

UBER if it breaks and holds 31.06

 

SBUX if it breaks 89.36. But one more down day and MACD cross the wrong way.

 

 

W (again) breaking out of range. Will go long if it breaks $93 or if it holds solid above $92.

 

FDX breaking back into its old channel. I may go long if it holds above $153.

Edited December 29, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

December 2019 Swing Trading Summary (I always end the month on a Friday)

It was kinda cool having a +12R month on my first month of swing trading. I know it had much less to do with skill and more due to the bull market. It seemed if you were long you would have made money.

I had 6 winners and 6 losers, so 50% win rate seems to be just fine with swing trading.

 

Some things I learned:

I have heard that one trade in the month makes your month. I never saw that it day trading but it sure makes sense in swing trading.

Letting you winners run is even more vital since that trade could be the one that makes your month. WDC was my trade that could have made my whole month. I thought I was quite happy catching an 11% move. But, I ended up not even catching half the move.

Check all your positions minutes before the close. Even though they are still above your stop make sure you want to hold them over night.

Have a trailing stop. I had two stocks make a 4% drop without reaching my stop. They popped and dropped while I wasn’t watching. Going to try and keep a 2% stop on my positions.

 

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/30/2019

I started the morning thinking I wasn’t going to enter any new trades with SPY dumping. But once it hit bottom and reversing I did pick up 3 stocks.

 

Long STX at 59.95. First target 61. Stop 59. Almost hit my stop this morning and bounced. I have been holding for a week now. Price hasn’t hit my stop or first target. The sideways movement has lowered RSI to the middle range. MACD is still bullish, but two down days will cause it to recross. Still holding.

 

Long today UBER at 29.89. Since this was not the plan I went half shares. Stop 29.30. First target at least $31. The plan was to go long at the break of $31.06. But today the price dropped hard and took a strong bounce off of the 29.34 daily level. When the price recovered and broke VWAP, two 60min chart levels and the 50MA-5min I went long. After my entrance the price took a slow drop following the 50MA-5min down. This is the most concerning of my current positions.

 

Long today CRWD (again) at 49.13. First partial at 49.97. Stop moved to B/E. Next target $51 or 50MA-1D.

 

Long today BE at 6.47. I got this one from Brian’s watchlist (thanks Brian!). I liked that it was staying positive while SPY was dropping hard. I went long when the price broke the 200MA-5min. I have no idea how to trade a low price stock so I went half shares.  First partial at 6.75. Second partial at 7.05. Stop moved to B/E. Next target 7.25 which it almost reached by the close today.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/31/2019

I know it will be a couple of months before I know where to set my stops for my swing trades. I know they should be looser than my day trades due to the overnight volatility. I usually set it to the next major tech level or whole dollar. But today I was stopped out on 3 out of my 4 positions and each one rebounded back after my stop was reached. So I definitely need to keep re-evaluating where to place my stops.

 

Long STX at 59.95. First target 61. Stop 59. Sideways again today. Still holding.

 

Long yesterday UBER at 29.89. Stopped out at the open then price rebounded quickly back to PDC.

 

Long yesterday CRWD (again) at 49.13. First partial at 49.97. Stop moved to B/E. Stopped out at the open, then price rebounded quickly to PDC.

 

Long yesterday BE at 6.47. First partial at 6.75. Second partial at 7.05. Third partial at PM today at 7.57. I set a limit order for 7.80. The price was reached but my order wasn’t filled. I moved my stop up to 2c below PDC. The stock dropped 8% to my S/O. Then of course the price rebounded nicely.

 

On the good side I wasn’t planning on day/swing trading the next few days so only keeping an eye one position will help me not think of the markets.

 

I wish everyone a Happy New Year.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2020 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Swing Trade Journal watch-list for week of 1/06/20

 

An interesting week. I got stopped out (by a small margin) on BIDU, CRWD, BE and UBER then all of them rebounded and BIDU and UBER made a big run after my stop out. So I was already feeling a bit salty about it then on my vacation (Thursday) where I purposely turned my text alerts into email alerts so I cannot focus on the markets, GE finally hit my trigger price which I did not see. By the end of the day the price actually reached my final target.

I was feeling pretty distracted after seeing that and I was worried about disrupting my family’s vacation. But, luckily while I was visiting Knotts Berry Farm I saw this T-Shirt. I never buy T-shirts when visiting amusement parks, but bought this one on the spot.

So this emotion is considered so childish they made a peanuts T-shirt out of it. Wow that really put things I perspective, Thanks CB!!!

My watchlist.

First the tensions with Iran may escalate making all longs on the watchlist moot. So first I look at defense stocks and companies that their revenue will be unlikely affected by the tensions.

The defense stocks popped. The only one that looks like I may not be chasing it is HON.

There was a pop but the volume has not arrived yet. It was also interesting the previous week was really holding onto the lower Fibonacci line. This makes PDC a strong tech level with the middle Fibonacci line and 3 daily levels all merging. If it holds PDC and moves higher I may go long. But if it does it will be difficult not to chase it. Thus it will be difficult to find an entry but will keep an eye on it.

 

I like I but I am wondering if I missed the boat already. Also another stock I may be unsure of an entry point. A new high looks extended, so it needs to at least hold PDC.

 

I may go long on Monday if DKS is positive. NKE has recovered but DKS took a hit on Thursday. The weekly looks good (with a bull flag wedge) and the daily looks good if it recovers on Monday.

CRWD looks like its breaking out and made a double bottom. May go long (again) if it holds PDC.

 

UBER looks good again but unsure if I could take this trade. I was stopped out on Tuesday, so I would enter this trade with a much worse entrance price. Also the trigger would have been $31 which I missed on Friday so I may be chasing it. But it is worth looking at it.

 

 

LULU looks interesting. May go long when it breaks 235.50. Or a starter position if it holds above 233 since since that will create a MACD crossing.

Edited January 6, 2020 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 1/06/2020

 

Long STX at 59.95. Finally hit my stop today. Surprising how long I held that stock without hitting my stop or first target. It stayed in a tight price range for 9 trading days. Now MACD has crossed in the bearish direction. I will keep an eye on it if it holds VWAP. But for the most part it is off the watch list. Its biggest competitor is now touting a new product that may take market share away.

 

Long today CRWD at 52.10. Too bad I was stopped out last week when I had an entry at $49. First partial today at 53.47. Second partial today at 55.47. Stop moved to 53.

Long today LULU at 233.89. My trigger was at 235.50. But I liked the MA crosses this morning so I entered with half shares. I will enter with the other half if it breaks 235.50. Stop is currently at 230.

Long today DKS at 47.74. My trigger was at 48. But I liked that it also had MA crosses this morning so I entered a little early. Stop is currently at 47.60.

Long today I at 7.38. I went long when it broke the 200MA-5min. But it retraced and never broke that MA again today, though it tried several times. I only took 1/3 shares since 7.44 is the real trigger price. Depending how the stock trades I may take more shares if it shows strength. Stop at 7.20.

 

I feel like I am in too many positions since there are international unknowns currently. I have placed auto stops on all the positions. Hopefully that will help with the down side if something occurs.

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 1/07/2020

 

All 4 of my swing trade positions opened positive this morning. Three of them reached a +1R by 10am EST point where I usually take a partial profit. But, I have always had an issue taking partial profits too frequently so I decided today to challenge myself and hold on longer. Plus SPY was down when my stocks were up. So I thought as SPY recovers my positions will go even higher. But the opposite occurred. As SPY went higher my stocks dropped and all went finally in the red. Though DKS did recover and finished green. I would have looked at this day a whole lot differently if I took the partial profits where I usually do.

 

Long CRWD at 52.10. First partial at 53.47. Second partial at 55.47. Stop moved to 53.

Long LULU at 233.89. Lost all my gains from yesterday. Back at B/E. Stop is currently at 230.

Long DKS at 47.74. Stop is currently at 47.60. Stock did finish green for the day.

Long I at 7.38. I originally only took 1/3 shares since 7.44 is the real trigger price. When the stock was holding 7.44 this afternoon I took more shares. The price dropped quickly after that and finished red. Stop 7.20

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 1/08/2020

 

I took me on a roller coaster this morning. It opened -1R below my stop. So at the open I am down -2R for the day. I guess I am not ready for the <$10 stocks. The price really dropped then and hit bottom and made a nice double bottom where I went long again (at the break of 50MA-1min) with a tight stop. The price rebounded quickly and I took partials on the way up. Though this was supposed to be a swing trade, when it topped out and broke down through the 20MA I exited. I really didn’t want to hold this stock overnight anymore.

Sorry I use Etrade for swing trading so I don’t have the DAS triangles to show entrance/exit.

 

Long CRWD at 52.10. First partial at 53.47. Second partial at 55.47. Stop moved to 53.

Long LULU at 233.89. First partial today at 237.80. Stop moved to B/E.

Long DKS at 47.74. First partial today at 48.74. Stop moved to B/E.

Long I at 7.38. and 7.44. Stopped out at the open for a -2R loss. Back long again (this morning) at 6.84. First partial at 6.99. Second partial at 7.06. Third partial at 7.11. Forth partial at 7.18. All out at 7.15.

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

 

Swing trade journal 1/09/2020

 

Lots of learning and contemplation today. First CRWD almost reached my next target (missed by a few cents) in premarket. But I am always upset at myself for not letting my winners run so I held back. Then CRWD almost reached my target twice after the open, but again I held off from taking a partial. Then the price dropped dramatically into the red.

Same for LULU. The price opened a few cents from my target but I held off. Then the price dropped big, well into the red. Same thing happen to me earlier this week. So today I realized something obvious. My broker commissions are now free. So just take a partial. If you think it is a bit too early, just sell less shares. Sounds incredibly simple, but I guess after paying commissions for 20 years you just don’t realize the obvious.

DKS spiked lower at the open and I got stopped out by a few cents. Then the price rebounded to PDC. Though I probably would have exited the position today it showed me that I really need to stick to my B/E. I set my stop slightly above it, just under a tech level. If I stuck to my B/E I would not have been stooped out.

Last bit, I really shouldn’t have had two positions in the same industry.

 

 

Long CRWD at 52.10. First partial at 53.47. Second partial at 55.47. Stop moved to 53. Though price took a big drop midday, it finished with some strength. Still holding.

Exited LULU at 233.89. First partial yesterday at 237.80. Did not reach my stop, but was red today. I really don’t like any of my positions underperforming the market. I waited until the close in case it finished strong. It didn’t. I exited the trade for a small profit.

Stopped out DKS at 47.74. First partial yesterday at 48.74. Price spiked down at the open and I was stopped out. Still finished up with a small profit.

Long HON today at 178.65. and 178.90. I like the charts and I like that HON, though is officially listed as an industry sector company, is partial a defense stock. Which offers some portfolio protection if the events in Iran get escalated.

I like the general up trend in December for HON. I like that the 50MA-1D has been strong support and is still angled up. I like the 175.50 has also been strong support. And I like the V that was just created the last 5 trading days.

 

Today when HON rejected VWAP the second time, making a double bottom I went long with 1/3 share size. Then when the price broke the 178.77 daily level and there was a MA crossing I purchased another 1/3. There is a very strong level on the daily near $180. So I will wait and if it breaks that I buy the last 1/3.

I was actually thinking about taking a partial profit when it made a new HOTD. But I stopped myself saying, “now this is a swing trade – look for larger moves.” Then it quickly dropped off, making me think twice about that decision. I did like it finished strong on good volume.

 

New on the watchlist is KNL. There is no setup yet and it has some room to fall before it starts hitting any support levels. The CEO sold 2M worth of shares. Not a good sign. I am assuming that’s what started the slide. I want to keep an eye on it if it reaches support or some positive news or the shoe finally dropping.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 9, 2020 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 1/10/2020

 

Long CRWD at 52.10. First partial at 53.47. Second partial at 55.47. Third partial today at 57. Forth partial today at 58. Stop moved to 55.

Exited HON today. HON was just following SPY. There was no reason to have it as a position unless it has its own mind so I exited with a small profit. May get back in if it breaks $180.

Long FUN (Cedar Faire amusement parks) today at 54.08. First target 54.80. Stop is at 53.50. SIX – Six Flags Amusement parks (FUN’s largest competitor) had a massive drop due to issues with its China project and (more importantly) stated a softening in crowd attendance at its parks. FUN immediately had a big drop at the open in reaction to the possibility that they may have an attendance reduction as well. FUN fell 3% through an important daily level and immediately half of the gap was bought back up showing buyers may think the news may not impact FUN. Also there was an analyst report today stating FUN should report 7% YOY increase in revenue. They also have a very large dividend of 7% where the analyst did not mention was in danger. And finally I was at possibly the largest Cedar Faire amusement park over the holidays and the crowds were much larger than expected (based on crowd calendars). SIX was complaining a reduction in season passes. On New Years Day Knotts Berry Farm was really packed. I heard some of the workers mention that it was overly crowded due to an expectantly high season passes where many are in the park on that day to renew.

FUN also made a double bottom on the daily chart and is now on the bottom of the channel. I also notice there is historically a bounce when the RSI drops to 40. When the price was hugging VWAP in 5/15/60 time frames today, I went long. I also liked it did not follow SPY today and it finished strong in the last 20min of the market.

 

 

 

On the watchlist is KNL. There is no setup yet but finally had a positive day, but it has some room to fall before it starts hitting any support levels. The CEO sold 2M worth of shares. Not a good sign. I am assuming that’s what started the slide. I want to keep an eye on it if it shows support or some positive news or the shoe finally drops.

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Watchlist for week of 1/13/2020

 

PFE is almost at a break out price. Next resistance level is quite far away. RSI a bit high at 63. One or two more positive days MACD will cross (bullish) and MA crosses will occur. First trigger at 39.70, then likely buy more when it breaks $40. Then a nice gap to the next tech level.

 

ADNT keeps making higher lows at the bottom of the channel. RSI=42. Now it is at the 5^th time it has reached the bottom of the channel in 5 months. Large div 5.4% which I think supports the bottom of the channel. May go long if it holds the $20 level.

VZ is entering oversold territory with RSI of 34. Price is touching the bottom of an expanding channel with increasing volume. Will have to watch if a signal appears that it has found support. It needs to hold off the 20/50 crossing that will occur with one more down day.

 

KNL is over sold RSI=30. I assume it was caused by the CEO dumping 2M worth of shares. Created a bullish candle on Friday. Finished the day at a big resistance level from Oct 2018. Will watch to see if support is found.

 

 

Waiting to see if ICE breaks out this week. RSI=58. All MAs going up. Trigger when it makes an all time high 95.70.

 

Several stock on the secondary list that I will keep an eye on twice a day.

KO – I like for a long but it made a foreboding shooting star on Friday, removing it from my primary  watchlist.

EBAY – May reach support levels, but MACD just crossed the wrong way.

CENT – I like CENT but I feel like I am now chasing it. I wish I knew about it on Friday.

MSI – Fighting a strong resistance level. Maybe enter if it breaks 170.

ROKU - Reaching a critical layer that it has bounced from before. ROKU was originally on my watchlist but I thought daily chart looks to much like a descending triangle. But since Brian has it on his watch I will add it to mine. Should be interesting which way it heads.

 

Edited January 13, 2020 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 1/13/2020

 

Long CRWD at 52.10. First partial at 53.47. Second partial at 55.47. Third partial today at 57. Forth partial at 58. Fifth partial today at 59. Stop moved to 57.

Exited FUN. Opened today OK but then quickly dropped below VWAP-5min and stayed there. Not the response I expected after that powerful close on Friday so I exited. Actually, I sold only half my shares for a tiny loss. I kept the other half as a long term trade because I like FUN in the long term. But as for the swing trade, it is closed.

Long and then exited PFE today. PFE reached my first trigger of 39.70 and I went long with half a position. Then PFE quickly made a double top and started to drop quickly. When the price broke VWAP-5min I exited for a small loss. I will watch to see if PFE shows strength again this week.

Long KNL today at 24.46. Stop at 24. First target $25. Showing strength again today. Maybe the price has bottomed. Today KNL created an ABCD pattern on the 5min chart. I went long (starter position size) when it bounced from VWAP. Price moved higher after I entered and finished strong, close to my first target.

Long KO today at 56.04. Stop at 55.40. First target $57. KO on the secondary watchlist. Showed strength and created an ABCD pattern on the 5min chart. After creating a new high and pulling back, I went long when it bounced from VWAP. Price stayed flat after I entered but finished strong at the close.

Long MSI today at 169.90. Stop at 168.80. First target $172.80. Triggered entrance price. The price moved higher during the day, but finished weak the last minute before the close.