Rob C's Swing Trading Journal

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/6/2019

I am starting to learn swing trading in addition to learning day trading. I am definitely hoping for feedback from the more experienced swing traders.

 

I like the HH/HLs and a wedge forming. Essentially, SLB was tracking the general oil sentiment, see USO below:

USO also in a nice upward trend. But I like SLB more. I like the wedge that formed (like a coiled spring) and the very large div of 5.4%. Even with the large gain in the last month RSI is not showing it as overbought. Macro economics still seems bullish with the assumption OPEC will extend its production reduction agreement. Since SLB is an oil service company I would think the gains will lag slightly over pure oil companies. SLB has received recent analysis upgrades and >$40 targets.

So I went long on Thursday at $35.74. I didn’t wait for the break of the wedge. I thought the strong bounce and holding the bounce was good enough. Then Friday SLB had a strong day. I was up more than 1R, but now that it broke through the wedge (by Stockchart) I was going to risk it and hold for a little longer before taking my first partial profit. I am hoping it may run a little now that it broke through the resistance.

SLB Long at 35.74. First target 37.21, second target 38 (200MA-1Day). Stop $35.

 

So here is the big question for the experienced swing traders. Why does Stockchart and DAS daily charts not match up? Stockchart shows SLB has broken the wedge. DAS says SLB has not broken through the wedge. Why the difference in charting? I like Stockchart for an overall view but for choosing levels I will stick with DAS. See DAS daily chart below and the difference to Stockchart. My first target is based on the top of the wedge on the DAS daily chart.

 

Any feedback is much appreciated. I am totally new swing trading so any comment is helpful. Thank you. Have a good weekend.

 

[SA Trader 2]

Rob,

I don't have answers to your questions, but I like your trade. I am also watching SLB and it looks great on the weekly. I am thinking of buying the dip to 35 or break and hold  of the ~37.2 level. 

 

[Rob C 826]

7 hours ago, Deon said:

Rob,

I don't have answers to your questions, but I like your trade. I am also watching SLB and it looks great on the weekly. I am thinking of buying the dip to 35 or break and hold  of the ~37.2 level. 

 

 

Your right it looks very interesting on the weekly chart. I am not use to looking at the weekly, though I see Brian do it. I will have to learn but I don't have any instincts on what a weekly chart should look like. Another skill I need to learn.

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/9/2019

Current swing trade SLB

Entered:  Long at 35.74.   Stop $35.

Price reached first target where I sold 25%. I sold when it bounced off the $37.30 level (from July). Which was about at 2R. I moved my stop to B/E.

Originally second target at 38 (200MA-1Day). But I may consider taking another partial at the $37.60 level since it bounced strongly from the $37.30. 

Chart from today:

 

On my watch list is WDC. It might have recovered from the CEO leaving showing a double bottom. The price today dropped likely due to their biggest competitor STX CEO just sold over $4M worth of stock causing STX to tank and WDC having collateral damage. So a buying opportunity may be near. WDC is only half HD, the other half is flash memory, so it sometimes trends with MU. So MU has been caught in a range and STX has been heading higher until recently. But WDC has been dropping. Also, WDC is also highly sensitive to the trade wars.

Thus too many ifs to enter a trade so just watching. Either good news about the trade wars or MU breaking out of its range, or STX heads back up and the WDC chart has to look good. There may be a downward wedge forming. We will see if it can hold above $47.50. A lot of different signals may occur. Any way simply WDC might have reached a bottom after CEO left.

 

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/10/2019

Long WDC at 49.30  First partial at $50. Stop at 48.65

I also currently have another swing trade with SLB Long at 35.74. Partialed at 37.25. Stop moved to B/E.

I would have liked to say that shortly after I posted my journal yesterday saying WDC is on my watch list, I bought shares and already made a 3% profit. But no. Four things needed to happen before I would take the trade. First WDC needs to break $49 so it no longer looks like a descending wedge. Second and third MU and STX both need a green day. And finally we need good news on the tariffs.

All four things did occur today. But it occurred minutes after I shutdown my platform this morning. Next time I had a chance to check WDC was almost at $50. I waited for a pull back and the price bounced hard from 49.20. So I went long at 49.30. The price rose a bit but dropped back down to B/E at the close. I am a little worried WDC finished the day weak. Hopefully my stop is wide enough for the sellers to do some profit taking. The way it found strong resistance at $50 today, I may take the first partial there.

See below, there are 4 levels below the current price. If the price breaks through them all I would stop out.

 

SLB finished up slightly. I do like the hammer created today and then it finished the day strong. There is a daily level at 37.63 I may take another partial there, but I prefer waiting until the 200MA-1D at $38. My stop is still at B/E.

I am really new at swing trading so any comments or feedback would be appreciated.

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/11/2019

Took partial profit on both of my positions.

WDC long at 49.30  First partial -this morning- at $50.63. Stop moved up to B/E

SLB Long at 35.74. First partial at 37.25. Second partial -this morning- at 37.81. Stop still at B/E.

 

SLB still moving higher today. The next tech level is reasonably far at 38.79. Also the price today bounced off of VWAP-1D, so I may take another partial if it reaches VWAP again. Which is approaching my 4R so I don’t want to be greedy.

 

WDC broke through the recent “range” at 50.75 and bounced off of 51. There is a strong level at around $51.50 (daily level and 200MA-1D) that I will be waiting to take the next partial.

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/12/2019

Took way too many partial profits on both of my positions. But it is a much better problem to have than being stopped out, so I really can’t complain.

WDC long at 49.30  First partial –yesterday- at $50.63. Second/third partial –today- at 51.96 and 52.77. Stop moved up to 51.50

SLB Long at 35.74. First partial at 37.25. Second/third partial -yesterday- at 37.81 and 38.32. Fourth/fifith partial –today- at 38.78 and 39.33. Stop moved to 38.30

 

SLB still moving higher today. I did take the first 4 partial profits at tech levels. The 5^th partial I took because of 3 reasons. First, according to stockcharts the price hit an important resistance level which previously caused a reversal in Sept and July. Though my DAS chart says this level is actually above $40, I don’t know why the discrepancy and many traders may be selling off the stockchart level. Second RSI is reached 69. Recent history SLB reverses when it hits 70 RSI. And third, a strong double top was formed on the 5 minute chart today so I took another partial.

 

 

I only have a small number of shares left. I moved my stop up, but I am hoping for a few days of consolidation.

 

WDC is on a tear today. I took two partials and the price still moved up another 2% after my last partial. But I had enough of partialing today. Plus, the level that it did bounce from today is not too strong (the $54 ad 50MA-1D). I only have a few shares left and I think WDC has more room to run than SLB. So I am going to hold my on to my shares at least to the next strong level above $55. My concern as usual is Stockcharts had the next level below $55. I still don’t understand the price difference between the two charting platforms. It is a big difference.

WDC has moved quite a bit the last few days so I am also hoping for a few days of consolidation.

 

I am a little nervous about the 12/15 tariff deadline, so I am worried to add any stock to my watchlist.

I will add one. PLAY. Since Dave & Busters is domestic it shouldn't be generally affected by the tariffs. So I will add it to my watch list. This is quite preliminary since I can't determine a trading plan for it. So it really is a "watch". It had earnings two days ago. Improved revenue but negative growth in same store sales and it tanked yesterday. Then it completely rebounded today engulfing the previous days candle. I don't know if it works for the daily chart but engulfing is a play that Andrew preaches on the 5 min chart. The stock had a nice upward trend before earnings. It also has a made a really strong hammer on the weekly. It also found a really strong support at ~38.25. There are 4 strong levels all withing one dollar above, so I may not want to go long until it breaks $42. Again no plan yet, just watching. 

Edited December 12, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/13/2019

All out WDC at $55

WDC long at 49.30  First partial at $50.63. Second/third partial at 51.96 and 52.77. Then all out at $55.

SLB Long at 35.74. First partial at 37.25. Second/third partial -yesterday- at 37.81 and 38.32. Fourth/fifth partial at 38.78 and 39.33. Stop at 38.30

 

SLB I still have a few shares left. Recent history SLB reverses when it hits 70 RSI. And we are hitting strong levels. But I think it is still worth holding onto a few shares and see if it consolidates and moves higher

 

 

First on the watch list is PLAY. This is sort of an antitariff play since its revenue is domestic so it should be unaffected. Not a pretty chart. But it did have an OK upward trend the last 3 weeks and seems to have a nice support at 38.30. The reason for my interest is it tanked after earnings and completely rebounded the next day. Then the next day it did what I hoped and dropped again but to a lesser degree. Now I hope a pendant or even better a wedge can form that I can trade from. If this formation occurs it will take a few days. So I am just watching now.

 

W I got from Nas posting it a couple of weeks ago and I have been watching it. It looks like it has broken out of the range now, but that was a really large range on Friday which causes difficulty in choosing a stop.

 

If you look at a daily chart it looks like you go long on the break of 91.25 with a stop of 86.09. A $5 stop makes any decent R/R impossible.

Looking at a 60min chart the $86 level doesn’t seem as critical. So two options. One goes on the break of $91 with a stop at $88. Though $3 is still a large stop, there are only 3 levels in between $91 and $100. A $92.50 level, but it is not that strong, a $94.95 level, which is strong but almost 2 years old and 50MA-1D. So it could really run if it gets going. The second option is go long at the break of 90.20 with a tight stop of 89.50 and manage it like a day trade for the first day or two. It could easily be stopped out, but if there was a signal on the 5min chart for the day it could be worth the risk. I will have to wait until Monday and play it by ear. I can’t make a decision on the trigger yet.

 

Have a good weekend. See you on Monday.

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/16/2019

SLB Long at 35.74. First partial at 37.25. Second/third partial at 37.81 and 38.32. Fourth/fifth partial at 38.78 and 39.33. Stop at 38.30  SLB was up a little today. Still holding a few shares to see if it breaks $40 and runs a little. I am hoping for consolidation since RSI is high.

 

W Long today at 86.51. W broke out of its range last week but didn’t move much and had a large price range on Friday. Wasn’t sure what to expect today.

W opened lower and dropped and bounced off of $85. Dropped again and recovered and I went long just above VWAP. My stop is a few cents below the $86 level the previous day bounced from. A few minutes later the price dropped and touched my stop then went up and I tried to take a partial at $87.50 which is at my 2R. The marketable limit order got stuck in the order window as “sending” for 110 seconds. By the time the order was “accepted” the price dropped significantly and the move was over. The rest of the day the price moved sideways. I did like the last 5 minutes of the day it finished with a white candle and the largest volume of the day.

I am still a little upset about my order not going through. I contacted Centerpoint to explain what happen and how to recover the next time.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/17/2019

SLB Long at 35.74. First partial at 37.25. Second/third partial -yesterday- at 37.81 and 38.32. Fourth/fifth partial at 38.78 and 39.33. Stop at 38.30  SLB has bounced hard from 39.80 two days in a row. My hopes for breaking $40 and running are starting to dwindle. If it fails again, without making a wedge, I may exit the trade.

 

Stopped out on W as it opened just under my stop. I am still a little salty about my broker having issues with the route and preventing me from taking a partial yesterday at 2R.

After the big drop on W I was fishing for the bottom and took a small share size at 83.57 after seeing a double bottom. My stop is quite tight at 83.40 (the low of yesterday) where it tested multiple times. Essentially if we open lower tomorrow I am out. Then I wait and see if it drops back to the bottom of the channel again at around $80.

 

Long CVS at 73.40. I took Brian’s recommendation. Though my entrance was a bit higher as I went long after the double bottom. My stop is a little wider than Brian’s at 72.80.

 

On watch T. I know it has had a big run, but if it stays above 38.60 it may be worth a long. Dividend is still amazing, RSI has recovered. It is currently lagging the market.

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/18/2019

SLB Long at 35.74. First partial at 37.25. Second/third partial -yesterday- at 37.81 and 38.32. Fourth/fifth partial at 38.78 and 39.33. Stop at 38.30  SLB has hit and bounced from ~$40 four times in 3 days. It has not formed a wedge so I am wondering if it will ever break it.

 

Long CVS at 73.40 -yesterday. I took Brian’s recommendation. My stop is a little wider than Brian’s at 72.80. CVS opened lower and briefly went below my stop but I was busy intraday trading so I didn’t see it. Once I started tracking CVS the price touched my stop 4 times but never went below. I held on and it finished at B/E. So still holding.

 

Long W (again) at 83.58. Took first partial at 85.44. Stop moved to B/E. The next target is 88.50 according to tech levels. But knowing myself I may not be patient enough. Hopefully I can make it to 87.50. 

 

Long LK at 30.54. First partial at 31.45. Stop moved to B/E. Bounced off the bottom of its recent range with a double bottom this morning. The next target is around 32.60. But it was having trouble staying above $32 so I need to keep a close eye on it tomorrow.

 

Watchlist PLAY. Price took a strong bounce and created a hammer. If it breaks 39.40 tomorrow I may go long. The problem is the stop level. Ideally it would be at $38, but that is a wide stop. Since there is a very strong level at $42, I don’t even have a R/R of 2. So I don’t think it is worth it. Again will have to wait and see if a setup occurs.

Edited December 18, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/19/2019

SLB Long at 35.74. First partial at 37.25. Second/third partial at 37.81 and 38.32. Fourth/fifth partial at 38.78 and 39.33. Stop at 38.30  SLB going sideways which is OK, gives it some time for the RSI to drop. Still waiting for the price to break $40

 

Long CVS at 73.40 – on 12/17/19. I took Brian’s recommendation. My stop was a little wider than Brian’s at 72.80 and it held (touching my stop 4 times). All out –today at 74.23. OOPS a hotkey mistake. I wanted only to sell 25%. I don't feel like getting back in since Brian is already out of the trade. So trade is over.

 

Long W at 83.58. Took first partial at 85.44. Second partial –today at 87.19. Stop moved to $85. The next target is 89.30.

 

Long LK at 30.54. First partial at 31.45. Second partial –today at 32.12. Third partial –today at 32.76. Stop moved to $31. Next target 33.50.

 

 

Watchlist PLAY. Price took a strong bounce and created a hammer. If it breaks 39.40 tomorrow I may go long. The problem is the stop level. Ideally it would be at $38, but that is a wide stop. Since there is a very strong level at $42, I don’t even have a R/R of 2. So I don’t think it is worth it. Again will have to wait and see if a setup occurs.

Edited December 19, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/20/2019

I learned a lot in swing trading management in the last 24 hours. I usually set my stop order and an alert for my next target since I can’t watch my swing trades all day. So when I took a look at my holdings before the close yesterday I was surprised to see W drop 4% in a few hours just hovering above my stop. Since it was weak and went green to red I was uncomfortable holding over night so I exited.

I was unsure if that was a fluke until this morning LK dropped more than 4% in 2 hours. Again just hovering above my stop. The last 24 hours I have given away a lot of unrealized gain back to the market. Thus this is not a fluke.

So if an experienced swing trader is reading this I would like to ask if you use trailing stops on your holdings when you can’t continuously watch. I was thinking of a 2% trailing stop. Is that a bad idea? Is it too tight of a stop? Should I stop out with all or some of my shares when triggered?

 

SLB Long at 35.74. First partial at 37.25. Second/third partial at 37.81 and 38.32. Fourth/fifth partial at 38.78 and 39.33. Stop at 38.30  SLB going sideways which is OK, gives it some time for the RSI to drop. Still waiting for the price to break $40

 

Long W at 83.58. Took first partial at 85.44. Second partial at 87.19. Out -today at 85.51. Dropped 4% in one day and went green to red. Felt uncomfortable holding overnight.

 

Long LK at 30.54. First partial at 31.45. Second partial at 32.12. Third partial at 32.76. Stop moved to $31.48  Next target 33.50. Saw it drop over 4% in about 1 hour today. Not feeling comfortable. Plus there seems to be too many reverse hammers on the daily chart. Still holding.

 

 

Long BIDU today at 128.03. Stop 126.80. First target $130 (also VWAP-1D) Heard Norm talk about it and I liked the chart, especially after the BABA run. BIDU just broke a strong level set in early November and it is reaching the huge gap created in May.  But I am not too crazy about entering a new trade this close to Christmas so I took half share size. There was a big bearish level 2 signal this morning. I waited for those shares to get eaten then went long. I didn’t place a hard stop and drove to work. When I got there I saw there was a big drop and went through my stop and bounced back. Then it took a dive at the end of the day barely not stopping me out again. My first instinct is to bail on the trade instead of holding a weak stock over the weekend near my stop. But it was triple witching day, which may have caused some unusual behavior. Plus the last few minutes the stock was very strong and I took half share size. So I am holding over the weekend.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 20, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Swing Trading Watch list for Christmas week.

I am really not in the mood to enter any new trades during the holidays, but there were some interesting stocks to watch.

GE has been consolidating for 6 weeks after its big run up. So do you see a double top or double bottom? I don’t know, but if it is a double bottom there are some interesting levels to work with.

The price has been bouncing between 10.90 and 11:15. There is also a level at 11.22. That level is over a year old but it was a strong support level. If it breaks that level there isn’t much for the next 30 cents which makes a break out interesting. Even if it is only to the top of the channel.

 

STX  has been also consolidating for weeks after its big run. Its biggest competitor WDC is currently on a tear so it makes you wonder if STX will soon follow. It had a big day Friday. If there is follow through it may make things interesting. I may go long if it breaks $60. There was a MACD intersection on Friday.

 

INTC is approaching levels it hasn’t seen since the dotcom era. I may go long if it breaks and holds above 59.50. MACD just had a cross over on Friday. Not a signal I actually know how to use, but I am trying to learn.

 

[Rob C 826]

Swing trade journal 12/23/2019

Long STX at 59.95. First target 61 (thought there is a strong level at 60.80 to punch through first). Stop 59.

The trigger was a break of $60 but STX gave an L2 signal and I went long a few cents early confident it will break through $60.

The price moved in my favor a bit today but not enough to take a partial profit. I am a little worried since the ex-dividend date is tomorrow. But looking at the previous ex-dividend days for STX, I don’t see any negative pattern.

 

SLB Long at 35.74. First partial at 37.25. Second/third partial at 37.81 and 38.32. Fourth/fifth partial at 38.78 and 39.33. Sixth partial at 40.48. Stop moved up to 40.  SLB finally broke $40 today. When the price bounced a level at $40.60 today I took another partial profit.

 

Long LK at 30.54. First partial at 31.45. Second partial at 32.12. Third partial at 32.76. Fourth partial –today at 33.05. Exit –today at 33.91. I probably should have kept a few shares for my kid’s college fund. Taking profits too early is an issue I am working on.

 

Long BIDU on 12/20 at 128.03. Stop 126.80. First target $130 (also VWAP-1D). The price moved in my favor a bit today but not enough to take a partial profit. Still holding.

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2019 by Rob C