Hello Everyone,
I just finished three months of live trading this past Friday, and about two weeks before finishing I came to the realization that something had to change if I was going to make it through the learning curve. After reading “Trading in Zone” and watching Mark Douglas’s “How to Think Like a Professional Trader” on YouTube, I decided I would create a 20-trade sample set to work on three areas of my trading.
(1) Thinking in probabilities
(2) Discipline to not give into FOMO
(3) Holding my winners longer
I figured since this is basically testing out a theory presented in one of the recommended Psychology books, I would make the results public so everyone in the community can see it. The desired outcomes I am looking for at the end of the sample set are:
(1) Getting away from thinking trade to trade, and start thinking in a series of trades
(2) Taming FOMO, so I do not get over excited and enter a trade too early
(3) Confirm my profit taking plan is profitable over a series of trades.
All of my indicators, confirmations, and risk analysis that defines my edge is based on information obtained in Andrew’s book and the lifetime Webinars.
Edge Defined
Strategy: 15 Min ORB – I chose this strategy specifically to force myself to deal with FOMO each and every day. I will caution that my edge does not appear every day, so there will be days that I do not take a trade. While tracking 5 Min ORBs and 15 Min ORBs for the last three months (total of 165 Stocks), I was surprised to see that 15 Min ORBs that meet my criteria appear more frequently than 5 Min ORBs. The percentage of them working is almost the same.
5 Minute ORB Pullback
Met Parameters - 52 of 164
Total trades within parameters that have worked - 41 of 52 (78%)
15 Minute ORB Pullback
Met Parameters - 55 of 165
Total trades within parameters that have worked - 41 of 55 (74%)
Stocks for Watchlist: I select up to three stocks to watch based on the following criteria
% Change – Gapped at least 2% but not more than 10%
Catalyst – Needs to have fundamental news of sort.
Vol – >100,000
Float – High or Medium float (> 50 m)
ATR - .50 to 2.00
Trading – Must be trading higher than normal volume
Exchange – I prefer Nasdaq over NYSE
Edge Criteria: I have three parts risk analysis, indicators, and confirmations
Risk Analysis: 1:2 or Greater
Indicators: Must meet 2 of 3
Trades within the ATR
Small share size with high volume
Has a direction upward or downward (higher highs, higher lows, lower highs, lower lows)
Confirmations: Must meet 3 of 4
ORBO closes above VWAP/ORBD closes below VWAP
No large wicks/candles (wick cannot be larger than body, candles body not larger than ½ ATR)
Closes near VWAP (needs to be within $.30)
Has a pullback prior to breaking the opening range (cannot go past planned stop)
Profit Taking Plan: As I am with CMEG, I have found you have to be very selective on when to take profits otherwise you are giving the money you make back in commissions, so I developed strict criteria for taking profits.
Plan A – 1/3 out at just a little above 1:1 (this allows me to be at break-even if the stock moves back to my entry point), all out at profit target (+/- $.03)
Plan B – 1/3 out at just a little above 1:1, 1/2 at profit target, all out at technical level or my first out
Plan C – 1/3 out at just a little above 1:1, 1/2 out near the profit target if stock stalls near it, all out at the profit target or my first out.
Share Size: I am taking share size based on a fixed dollar amount. Thanks to KyleK29 & fjmocke for the hotkey setup.
Daily Trading Goal: My daily trading goal is to trade only within my edge, stick to my profit taking plan, control my emotions, and be disciplined. If I meet these then it is a green day regardless of what my P/L says.