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Showing content with the highest reputation on 07/01/2020 in Posts
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4 pointsWednesday - July 01, 2020 Futures Watch /ES rallied hard yesterday into the Volume POC 3100 which was the likely probability once reverting back from the Sunday lows. Pulling away from V. POC may lead to another test of 3040 high volume area and lower consolidation area. /NQ pulled away from Volume POC approx 10000 and is extending past the one SD range. Probability favors a pullback back into the range, but as the strongest sector, the alternate case to retest 10300 is certainly on the table. /RTY has been oscillating around the Volume POC 1420 area with tight range consolidation on Monday, break away lower into Tuesday before moving higher, and now right back in the area. Given correlations with other markets, look for a tightening range before aligning to the prevalent trend of other products. Premarket Review at 9:00 ET $SPY - Starting to trend higher into PM highs, may be attempting to retest 310 and yesterday highs in the afternoon. Expecting some strength and exhaustion into daily resistance levels 310.51 gap entry and 311.61 gap fill. $QQQ - Flat with yesterday resistance above 248.16 and PM highs. Looking for an extension higher and pullback given futures volume profile. $IWM - Slightly lower coming into PM highs and yesterday highs 143.62. Daily has 144.50 area as resistance with multiple tests on prior days. Bond Futures lower about .30% and $TLT gapping lower into 162 lower end of prior range. Oil Futures volatile this morning with large ranges around Volume POC 39.69. Natural Gas Futures pullback back after a two-day rally from the lows, also pulling away from V POC 1.718. Gold Futures breaking yearly resistance levels yesterday around 1800 and falling back into the breakout area. $GLD extended past Volume SD Range and pulling back into 166.3 V. POC. Silver Futures pulling back after strong breakout rally yesterday, very extended looking to revert back to 18.15 top of SD range. Volatility Futures down 1% pulling away from Volume Range and headed to test lows 30.31. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Industrials with airliner catalyst, Financials trying to break yesterday highs. Health Care with Pfizer catalyst. Weak Sectors: Materials and Consumer Disc. inside bar starting the day. Tech is starting flat. Things to Watch: $PFE - Pfizer, BioNTech Press Release Confirms Early Positive Data From Ongoing Phase 1/2 Study Of Coronavirus Vaccine Candidate $UAL - Extending capacity for flights $FDX - Earnings
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2 pointsTuesday SIM +2.2R MU 1MinOrbDown -1.0R First candle was white, closed above VWAP. and had a big down wick. Probably not the best short. NVDA 1MinOrbUp +2.5R good trade UBER 5MinOrbUp +0.6R Not a clean chart on the 1 minute, but that first five minute candle with the big wick down, and VWAP holding as support looked good. Finished the month of June +25R, this was all in SIM, but I am very happy with my improvements this month. I am tempted to go back live tomorrow since it's the 1st of the month. But I had a plan to get 3 positive weeks in SIM before going back to live. So I should stick to that plan and finish the week out in SIM, then plan on going live Monday.
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1 pointDay 119 - Jul 1 , 2020 11 Tickets 2 Symbols Green Day Personal: Canada Day today..wasn't rested at all, up late....ended up sleeping in. Got to screens late, but did all research and market prep - was not rushed. Accepted fact i was late and was fine with it - much clearer mind set. Goals for the day: Report Card = 100% Watchlist: RVOL at open: Trades BYND - Short - Asymmetrical Triangle BYND Forming tight consolidation just below VWAP, tried to push through but rejected VWAP and VPoC and broke through lower trend so I took it short. Stop above VWAP (pivot high - but too wide) Look for LOD+. Broke down but SPY is strong and has a positive catalyst - will see what happens. Looking to take some off into 144.5 PM Level and then hold on to the rest. Didn’t like the 5min hammers and break of downtrend so took the rest off. Ended up hitting right at PM Level I exited first time and then dropped another 6 points. Good: Good read, perfect asymmetrical triangle here with rejection off VWAP and a shakeout candle right before the drop. FDX (1) - Short - Descending Triangle (LOD Break) Was looking weak coming down forming a descending triangle just above 158. Took it short as it broke down, although 158 didn’t act as much resistance… Ended up taking half off right away on fake breakdown doji (In game plan) and got stopped out for the rest. Good: Following game plan Improvement: SPY moving up - was not playing with market. Note: 12:18 - FDX setting up a descending triangle. Would like to see another rejection at 159 and then come back down for the break. - Did not follow my own plan, took a loss because of it. FDX (2 ^ Above) - Short - Descending Triangle (LOD Break) Trying it again on the drop - didn’t like the wide bar - but selling coming in and thinking we could see a run for rest of the day. Took some off into Premarket Mirror level, and then didn’t like the potential bottoming volume hammer doji so took some more off. Came down had some more increasing volume and doji right off 155.90 level - looked like holding so I covered some more - final partial was break of downtrend. As soon as I got out we put in a real nice reversal shooting star for potential short - but 5min buying is coming in - change of character. Good: God job sticking with this - overall was weak and I hit stock with what it presented me. Improvement: Look for a better entry here - stop was way too wide. Better entry would be break down, and reject around 13:10 - should be adding into this, as stats show re-test is a great entry. Trade Ideas (Potential Trades) 10:36 - INO - Long squeeze out of asymmetrical triangle (Winner : 2-3R) 10:44 - FDX - Bear Flag looking weak below VWAP. Thinking this will flush, target 158 (Winner : 4.5R) 11:06 - INO - looking like a bull flag VWAP Break and Go - too wicky to topside (Loser) 12:18 - FDX setting up a descending triangle. Would like to see another rejection at 159 and then come back down for the break. Took this trade…didn’t wait for rejection - came up to touch 159 to the penny 12:33 - BYND setting up for ascending triangle off level I have marked (mirror) . (No Entry - Broke below previous low ) 12:33 - FDX testing downward trendline - will see what happens here. Would be more comfortable shorting this as it break again but will see. Wanting to go short at the top of trend - but know its better to wait. 159 showing some size (44 lots vs 1-5 lots other levels.) (Winner) 13:24 - INO Asymmetrical still holding. Also a Bear wedge with lots of bids at 20 - missed the 20 breakout would be chasing at 19.8 (Winner : 3-4R) 14:07 - INO Huge bid at 19 - 1000 lots. Not a great entry unless it consolidated there for a while and continues to hit that level. Broke right through within seconds (No entry) 15:15 - INO breaking out 20.20 level after holding MAs and putting in a Few hammers - 20.20 entry 19.87 stop (Loser) 15:37 - BYND asymmetrical short below 141.6 and long above 142.5 (Loser, but no Entry - no trading in last 30min - stats are terrible into close) Trade Review Goal 1: Playbook Setups Only = PASS Goal 2: No Adjusting = PASS Wasn’t going to trade as It was Canada Day and wasn’t rested up. Got to screens late, but did all the prep and just started trading later in the morning. Ended up taking a few trades, happy with entries they matched majority of my criteria but stops were too wide - therefor got less shares to keep for the bigger move. Trade management is still the name of the game for me… NOTE: Have started keeping track of "Trade Ideas" for trades that I am thinking of taking, but don’t for one reason or another. If followed to game plan - would have had another 6R + on the day if they were taken. Will keep monitoring, with more detail that way I can see WHY I didn’t take them when I should have…… Things I did well: Followed rules for when I wake up late - did full research and took my time getting into trades. Playbook Setups and Adjusting Stops Things I did poorly: Trade Management - should have been up an additional 2R if exit strategy was followed. Daily Report Card 1.Playbook Setups Only (ABCD, VWAP Break N Go, Triangles looking to add 1-2 more) = 3/3 = 100% 2. Placing trades with defined risk, and profit targets (No adjusting) = 3/3 = 100%
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1 pointI just posted that on your thread. My stop was at 52.01, high of that candle was 52.02, then it dropped about 80 cents. Maybe next time I'll go .03 above whole dollar instead of .01. Thanks
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1 pointwe took the opposite trade on $MU, I took it long on the 1 min orb to the upside for a break of $52 there was a wall of about 200,000 shares being sold there, I knew it was significant but didn't realize how much till i checked my recording, it almost broke it, but then got stuffed down. I'm not that big of a fan of $MU, it always seems to trade with wide candles, it wicked me out on an ascending triangle later in the day too, it was a great entry and broke my way. You should be proud of your month man! Really, great job!
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1 point6/29/2020: Did not hit target. Goal: Calm mindset. Goal: ORB and ABCD trading strategy. After first 3 minutes, until 10:30am. Look for confirmation and multiple signals. Goal: Move based on the chart, not the P&L. Goal: Wait for CONFIRMATION on entry. Don't need to be EARLY to enter. Review the PLAYBOOK CONFIRMATIONS. WKHS Should have waited for more confirmation here. I sensed a downward trend, it was close to the VWAP, good R:R, but if I had waited for more confirmation about whether it was a false breakdown or not, I could have avoided it. I was greedy to catch the move near the VWAP. Respected the stop loss and exited, closed out the day as I hit daily loss limit. Back to the playbook to study.
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1 pointTuesday - June 30th, 2020 Futures Watch /ES Futures closing at the highs and fading slightly lower into today's PM. Tightening range and consolidation with a volume pocket above to get to the Volume Point of Control (POC). /NQ Futures closed strong and had a slight fade pullback, currently hovering near the 10,000 mark and no direction clear at this time. /RTY Futures closed strongest yesterday and appears to have tested Volume POC twice. Ideally other markets will drive directionality. Premarket Review at 9:00 ET $SPY - Flat around 304 area. Market expecting more information before making a move. Watch 303 area major consolidation yesterday and high volume node. $QQQ - Flat around 242.75 area, had a major pullback off the 237.35 tweezer (double bottom) lows from yesterday. Watch 242.46 yesterday pivot high before closing rally. $IWM - Flat around 141 area, break above Friday highs so showing relative strength for a move higher in the coming week. Watch highs and lows from yesterday defining the range we're in. Bonds slightly higher, $TLT at a volume node and may consolidate as it did last month between 162/168.5 Oil Futures down 1.8%, but showed some strength in correlation with the markets yesterday, so may be pulling back similar to S&P. Natural Gas Futures very strong up 3.8% after yesterday strength, watching again today for continuation. Gold Futures consolidating below 1800 resistance, fairly flat. Silver Futures flat and volatile range between 17 and 18.5. Not on watch. Volatility Futures up 1.9%, keep watch for this to show a early signal for market directionality. Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: From yesterday, Metals and Home Builders performed well. Volume was light overall across all sectors. Today, watching Technology for continuation and Utilities for a break of Friday highs. Semiconductors ($SMH) are quite strong, so may help Technology carry forward. Weak Sectors: Financials and Energy are continuing to be the weakest sectors overall, daily ranges are reduced on Energy so possibly slowing momentum to the downside. Things to Watch: $WFC due to relative weakness in weak Financials, possibly due to dividend cuts over other banks (failed stress test). $FB getting away from 220 after two volatile days. $MU gap up and strength in semis.
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1 pointMonday - June 29th, 2020 Markets closed weak last Friday, June 26th with major index products closing near the lows after a roughly 2% decline throughout the day. Notably Technology and major names like Facebook and Amazon were sold off heavily and led the entire markets. Sunday Night /ES Futures opened lower at 2986.25 with low at 2983.5 before coming back above 3000s. Getting above 3025 area would be of interest as that brings us into the major breakdown area from last week. /NQ Futures opened lower 9785.5 with low at 9780.25 before coming slightly higher. Overall below areas of consolidation from last Friday and still showing weakness. /RTY Futures opened lower 1362.2 with low of 1359.6 before coming much higher to test 1400. Showing relative strength given already recovered the breakdown area from last week. Monday Premarket at 9:00 ET $SPY - Trending higher from Friday low, holding at roughly 0.5% higher near Thursday's low. $QQQ - Range bound between Friday's low and Thursday's low, roughly flat 0.0% $IWM - Trending higher off Friday's low attempting to test Friday high, up as much as 1.5%. Bonds are slightly lower from last week, I expect a small pullback as bonds have had a nice run from the recent lows. $TLT recovered from recent lows at 153.00 area up to 166.5 in after market last Friday, a roughly 8.5% gain in roughly two weeks. Oil Futures pulling away from 41 Gap Fill Highs, up slightly today. Natural Gas Futures very strong up 6.25% from recent selloff last week, I expect a strong bounce from these extended yearly lows. Gold Futures flat from last week, extended at 1800 resistance on /GC. I expect $GLD to have a pullback this week before attempting a breakout. Silver Futures down slightly after a major run over the past months, consolidating in 18 - 19 range. I expect silver to underperform gold in the coming months, but still remain bullish. Volatility Futures down 2.4%, with 23/51 day contracts roughly same price (slight contango). Sectors Premarket at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Industrials with $BA up 6%. Financials with most large bank names up close to 1%. Weak Sectors: Communications down with $FB down 4%. Things to Watch: Since major Tech was down heavily last week, watching $XLK and MAGAF names closely. If selloff continues, other potentially 'risk-off' sectors may get bought at these lows like $XLU (been weak for a while).
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1 pointFriday SIM +5.2R I traded fairly well today, should have been more patient on some entries. I am actually very happy with a couple of trades I didn't take. There were two different times I was going to take positions, one I didn't because it was too far extended from VWAP, I think that was GPS, even though that would have been a big winner, it wasn't one of my current playbook strategies. The second was a break of HOD fifteen minutes in or so, I don't remember which stock that was maybe BBBY, I'm not trading HOD or LOD breaks right now. These two non entries are what I am most excited about from this week, it shows I'm starting to be more self aware while trading. Another big accomplishment today was it is the first day I CHOSE to trade in sim. My new funds hit my CMEG account, so I could have traded live if I wanted to. I made a deal to have 3 consecutive green weeks before going live again, I stucjk to the plan and conquered the temptation to get back in live. So I am happy with my progress this week, and look to build on it next week. I think self awareness is the most important aspect of my trading, so I'm really going to concentrate on that moving forward. NKE 1MinOrbDown +0.22R This was a good entry below VWAP, if I would have been more patient with my profit taking, I could have had a nice winner. NKE.2 5MinOrbDown +0.4R Good trade, it just wasn't ready for the big drop yet, it did happen 10 minutes later after I stopped watching it. WFC 1MinOrbDown +0.35R Stock tried to get above VWAP and rejected hard, so I shorted, no follow through. WFC.2 5MinOrbDown +0.23R This one also wasn't ready for the big move, happened 10 minutes later just like NKE. C 5MinOrbDown +0.17R Slippage got me on this entry C.2 5MinOrbDown +3.9R I got pretty lucky here, as I was hitting my hotkey for shorting, the price quickly moved closer to my stop loss, so that gave me more shares than if it had not made that move, either way, this was a good 5minOrb with ABCD on the 1Min. Did a little stat review in TraderVue before journaling. Group 1 is longs this month, Group 2 is shorts this month....I had no idea there was such a big discrepancy. Is this something I should worry about, or just see how it plays out next week before making any adjustments?