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Showing content with the highest reputation on 02/02/2019 in Posts

  1. 1 point
    Hey traders! You know me as Matt R, blowing up the chat with Pivot alerts. I never traded with pivots before about a month ago, but turned them on one day by accident and man, was I glad I did. I did some research on them and it's changed the way I'm trading. I'm calling out stronger supports, taking better less risky trades, and getting out much safer than I was before. For those who don't know what pivots are, here is a great article to start on: https://thesecretmindset.com/pivot-points/ Tells a little about them, how they're calculated, and taking some basic pivot trades. In my opinion, they're just strong reversal trades, but instead of you going on your own and trying to see a W, or head and shoulders, or ABCD, or any other things that are subjective, this is a level that every single trader with a computer has access to, and is staring them in the face. They are numbers that DO NOT CHANGE!! ALL DAY! Everyone on the planet has the exact same numbers. And you know what else that means? Computers have them too. Which, in this case (and not usually the case in day trading) is great. So have I figured it out and gotten 100% success? No. There are some times that I get faked out, just like any reversal. But my stop losses are shallow and my $10 and $20 losses are manageable when the rewards are so great. And now, I've started noticing even more trends with these. Here are the two main trends that I see on these trades: 1) NEVER take a pivot trade that is going against the stock (short a stock going up, long one going down) unless it CROSSES A MOVING AVERAGE! Just because the stock hits a pivot doesn't mean it will reverse. A lot of times a strong stock will just blast right through. I have examples of this in all three charts below. 2) If you do take a trade that bounces off a pivot and then crosses a MA, beware of normal resistances, like VWAP, other resistance, HOD, Open, etc. I have found that three (3) 5-min candles in a row or a MA cross of any kind mean the trend is possibly over and the pivot reversal could be done. COULD BE. Just keep your finger on the trigger. These things are not bullet proof, and are subject to the same issues other trend trades are. People can always change their mind, or news can come out, or whatever. We will not always bounce happily from one pivot point to another. That's it so far. I attached some photos of some charts of trades I did. I took a few false pivots and tried to figure out what happened. Each time, it was because I broke one of these two rules. The other thing you need to know is that you could be buying or selling on a bounce. That is ok. Pivots bounce 2, 3, 4, or even 5 time before breaking, especially over slow periods like lunch. See the SQ example 1. You need a lot of patience with this strategy. If you took the trade at the first bounce, you would have been at break even for some time. Stop losses are your friend here. Which leads me to rule #3. 3) Set your stop at a pivot trade above the highest candle wick above the pivot, which really shouldn't be more than $0.10-0.20 or so. See, so your risk on these trades is very small, so you can price/buy shares accordingly. As far as price targets for these, obviously the next closest pivot is the end target, unless the move is breaking one of the main rules! (It's not near a MA, no supports in sight, etc) Just pay special attention to each 'obstacle' as I call them. Once you've passed another one, it's one step closer to finishing the Pivot journey. The final thing that's exciting about these is holding a position long or short that's approaching them. In the last photo, NVDA was a trade I had long from open from another strategy. I held that puppy until $144.50 because of these rules (no breaking MA at pivot, etc). I hope this article helps! Again, this is what I've seen, practiced, and read. Typical disclosures, don't listen to me, I'm a nobody, do your own research, etc etc. However, these PPs are very exciting and I hope it will help all of us be more confident and able traders. Anything to give us a leg up over those other people, right? See you guys in the chat and let me know if you start seeing additional trends for us all to become aware of! Thanks guys! Matt R
  2. 1 point
    Greg, I am sorry things did not work out today. A couple of weeks ago, I was having exactly the same issues that you show in your trades. I really mean exactly the same. Recently I had 5 days in a row losing $150/day. The only reason I only lost $150 is because I have account controls with DAS that stops me when I reach this $150 limit. I had a number of common trader issues. Not respecting STOP levels, over trading, revenge trading trying to recover loses, not being analytical on how to select trades, trying to catch ORB within the first 5 minutes of the open, etc. I have taken some corrective actions that seems to be helping: 1- Every morning before trading, I hand write my rules for the day and keep the paper in front of me. It is important to hand write the rules. The human brain seems to process information better when the person hand writes it. 2- I modified my rules they are as follow: A- Wait 10 minutes before taking my first trade. B- Only take trades and setups that I am familiar with around the VWAP and have the potential of 1:3 or 1:2 Risk:Reward. I call these A+ setups. C- Set the stop loss at my risk per trade limit (see risk management below) and respect the stops. I enforce this with STOP range orders. D- Only take 2 trades maximum per day. If my first trade is a winner I stop for the day. If I lose on my first trade I will look for a second A+ setup. If I get stopped for a second time. I stop trading for the day. E- I do not trade after 10:30. If I am already in a trade and it is going my way I stay with it. 3- My risk management strategy is the following: Although, I have a fully funded account I only use 10% of my real equity to trade. If my account has $25,000. I use it as if I only have $2500 equity. So for trading purposes my equity is $2500. My broker gives me a 1:4 margin, so I really have $10,000 buying power to get shares. In other words when I trade stocks, I make sure that the number of share that I take can be obtained with $10,000 or less. I have set myself a risk per trade limit of 1% of the equity. This means that with the $2500 equity, if I get stopped out I will lose $25. I use this risk per trade limit to determine how many share to get. For instance is a stock is $10/share, technically I can buy 1000 shares with my buying power. However, if this stock can move $0.10 against me and I have 1000 share, then I will lose $100 which is way over my risk per share. Thus for a $10/share stock with a potential loss of $0.10, I would only get 250 shares. Now if a stock is $100/share I could buy 100 shares with by buying power, but if this stock has the potential to drop $1, I will lose $100. In this case I would only get 25 shares. There are different ways to manage share size to stay within the risk management. Some people have a set number of shares based on the stock price and price action. When they build their watch list they know for each stock the proper size to take. Other people use hotkeys that automate the share size based on Ask price and buying power. I personally use hotkeys that I have created for this purpose. I use STOP RANGE orders with my STOP LOSS at risk per trade ($25) and wins at 3 times risk ($75). If I make my $75 in my first trade, I stop trading for the day. If I get stopped on the first trade, I lose $25. In this case I look for another A+ Setup to trade. If I win that one at $75, then I will be up $50 for the day. If I lose my second trade, I will be down $50 for the day. I don't do more than 2 trades per day, I either my outcome is one of the following: +75, +50, -50. I use hard STOPs so, I don't let trades run against me. I also use hard stops for my target. So when I hit the 1:3 ration, I get out with a win. Sometimes on winning trades that look strong, I adjust my STOP and end up getting a 1:4 or 1:5 ratio. I use hotkey to set up to STOP orders. In order to be successful with this risk management plan is important to identify A+ Setups that have the potential to give 1:3 risk:reward. Not only do you need to identify them, you also need to enter them at the right price that could potentially give that 1:3 ratio. If the trade does not meet these conditions, wit for it or look at another stock in your watch list. Don't settle for less. If you select trades like this, you will have few losing trade and the winning trades will yield enough to overcome your losing trades. Obviously, this is easier said than done. Selecting A+ trades come with practice. For me this is the trickiest part of trading. Right now this is my main area of focus where I want to improve. This risk management works well with the daily rules. For instance having a rule of a maximum of two trades per day, forces me to look very hard for the A+ setups. Also, the 2 trade rule forces me to stop trading after. My theory is that in the long run I will be ahead. If my success rate at selecting a good trade is 3 out of 5 days (60%), in a week I can expect lose $100, but make $225 for a +$125 for the week. The better I get at selecting A+ Setups, the better it gets. Right now my main focus is identifying these A+ Setups and sticking to my rules. When I had those 5 losing days in a row, every single day I was up for the day but I continued trading and gave it all back and some more. 4- I don't use 1 Minute Charts anymore because they are too "noisy". The 2 Minute Charts allows me to identify A+ setups better. 5- At the end of the trading day, I look at my handwritten notes. Make remarks on what I did right and wrong. I save my notes as part of my trading journal. I also save my trades images with annotations of what went right and wrong. I also save my trade log. I review my journal to determine if I need to change my rules or risk management plan based on bad behavioral patterns that I identify. These are my rules and risk management. They seem to be working for me but they may not work for everybody. I am sharing because it is always good to learn what other people are doing. You probably need to find what work for you. Analyzing your trade with my strategy: For your FB trade you may have had a different view is you only look at the price action after 9:40 AM. You would have seen a doji and waited a another couple of minutes, then you might have seen the price bounce from a support around $165.50. The 2 minute chart might have shown a different perspective that could have helped. The AAPL trade was harder to see because it was trading in a narrow range from 9:35 AM until 9:45 AM. This period is a pure chop. In my mind when a stock is trading like this, it could go either way. I see these setups as a 50/50 chance. Not an A+ setup in my mind. Eventually it went up, but it could have gone down based on the indicators. When I see these chop patterns, I look for other stock to trade or wait a little longer. Following my rules, I would have stopped trading after AAPL, since I have a limit of two trades per day. I think the MSFT might have been easier to read with a 2 minute chart. Although, it is still a hard one to read. In the 2 minute chart you might have seen a shorter candle from 9:50 to 9:52 this could have made you wait another 2 minutes to make a decision. Again, I would have not traded MSFT because I would have already hit my 2 trades per day limit. On PYPL, I don't know if the 2 Min. would have shown better direction. Reversals are very tricky. I stay away from them because I usually lose on them. I like trading around the VWAP especially between 9:40 and 10:00 AM. After 10:00 AM, the patterns seem to change and I don't know how to trade them. I have taken some successful reversal towards VWAP, but most of the time I can't figure out the right time to enter a trade and end up getting chopped in a move like your first PYPL trade. Definitively, I would have not traded PYPL becuase of 2 trade limit, it is late in the morning, and it is not the a setup that do well with. I hope this helps.
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