Rob C's Trading Journal - starting Feb 1 2019

[Rob C 826]

Finished my first month of live Futures trading!!  Since I reached my goal for the month (50 points) I will take the last day of January off from trading.

SP500 had lots of upward momentum. We had a nice pull back around 11:30 EST concluding with a sharp V. That is the same as a strong hammer in candle charts. So I went long. After the 3rd HH I moved my stop up by a point and was stopped out. I would have been stopped out 12 minutes later for more of a loss any way. Then the price ran up. Later the ES made a beautiful break out trade (BO) but I was not near my computer at the time. An hour later there was an OK failed break out (FOBO) but it hesitated too much so I didn't take it, though it worked out well. 

Then the price had trouble breaking the HOTD. After 4 failed attempts and making a new low I shorted but exited when the price stalled at my 1st target. I did miss the big move, but again I am very protective of my P/L at the end of a month so I am just happy to finish the day positive.

I hope everyone has a good day trading tomorrow and have a good weekend!

Rob C

 

[Rob C 826]

2/1/2021 Monday

First day of the second month of trading Futures (ES) live.

Huge upward momentum in PM, but then slightly down for the 3 hours before the open. But I still thought the market will retest the high. The significant pullback occurred right before the market open. An entry presented itself within a minute of the open so I only placed a buy limit order for 1 contract. I was surprised I got filled. It wasn't long after the price reached my first target (the outer band - in red) but I tried to hold out for more but immediately got a stall in price and I exited.

It was nice to start the month with a positive day so I switched to SIM after the one trade to make sure I finish the day positive.

I hope everyone had a good start to their month today.

Rob C

 

[Rob C 826]

Futures (ES) trading journal 2/2/21 Tuesday.

Strong upward momentum from the PM and again at the open. We had a strong pull back but not a very deep one. Thus very little space between the entry and the HOTD. So I had to have a target as "double the range" at 3816. The price just missed my target and as it fell enough, that I didn't think it was heading back, I exited. That was enough to call it a day with Futures and  switched to trading equities for the rest of the morning.

I hope everyone had a good day.

Rob C

 

[Rob C 826]

Futures (ES) trading journal 2/3/21 Wednesday.

There was some downward momentum from PM but not strong. The price dropped at the open enough to create a level to mark (thick blue line), but not enough for me to trade from. There were 3 setups using this level that I did not take. Though the 3 setups from this level were all winners. I have noticed that when setups are winners that day there seems to be a better chance the next setup will be a winner as well.

The price broke the level and pulled back for a break out trade (BOT). Surprised my order got filled since it was just touched. Though it was a really good setup I only took one contract. The bandwidth (the distance between the redlines that display local volatility) was large. Since my stop is based on the bandwidth a 2 contract trade would have had a 6 point risk. That is too much for me to risk so early in the month. The price dropped immediately and reached my conservative target.

I hope everyone is having a good day.

Rob C

 

[Rob C 826]

Futures (ES) live trading journal 2/4/21 Thursday.

A bit aggressive today. We had some nice upward momentum at the open. There was a pull back, but not deep enough for a setup, then bounded higher. Then again we had another pullback, almost deep enough for the setup. But I liked that it was a repeating pattern and the SPY ETF looked like a long as well. So I went long and it did reach my conservative target where I exited.

I hope everyone is doing well today. I got totally chopped up at the open with equities today. Luckily I have been trading only SIM at the open with equities due to my playbook at the open is no longer working. So no harm done. I just need to adapt may play book. It may take a few weeks. 

Rob C

 

[Rob C 826]

Futures (ES) live trading journal 2/5/21 Friday.

Well I have been on an amazing winning streak the last 3 weeks and as usual I end my winning streaks with a big finale. Thus I hit max loss today which I define as 3 losses in one day and I stop trading.

There were some OK setups, but not great so I let them go by. Too bad since they were both winners. Finally a really nice break out trade setup occurred and I went short. Soon after I was stopped out. Which immediately setup to flip my position which I did and was stopped out again. Shortly after I had a closer look at the trade and saw I had the wrong stop by 1 tick. So I wouldn't have been stopped out and had a really good trade instead of two stop outs.

The mistaken stop with two stop outs messed up my psychology and I left the screen for awhile. I walked back to the screen a couple hours later. There was another breakout trade where I went long. I was stopped out again and stopped trading for the day.

I still had a nice week with 12 points. I have the weekend to wind down from my 1 tick stop out mistake. I should be OK on Monday. I won't make that mistake again.

Everyone have a good weekend!

Rob C

 

[Rob C 826]

 

Futures (ES) live trading journal 2/8/21 Monday.

Looks like I still haven't recovered either from my max loss on Friday or my 3 week winning streak because I still made a mistake today that turned a winner into a loser.

There was some upward momentum in the PM but not that much. But a really nice break out trade did setup at the open. The price made a new high, fell back down testing the support. Moved back higher to make a new HOTD and then pulled back to give an entry. It looked so good I took two contracts on the trade long. By rule, when I take two contracts, the first contract target must be the outerband (in red) that existed at the moment of entering the trade. I placed a limit order there and the price quickly moved higher and just before reaching my order I moved the order higher. I essentially got greedy. The price spiked through where my order should have been and quickly moved down to stop me out. If I followed my rules I would have made 3 points from the first contract and moved my stop for my second contract to B/E. This is the first time in my 5 weeks live trading I did not follow this rule.

A few hours later we got some good momentum down and a strong pull back. the price then moved lower and gave me a setup. But my order for two contracts was not filled. The price dropped and pulled back again for another entry. This entry wasn't as pretty as the first so I went long with only one contract. That was a good decision since the price immediately went against me and I was stopped out.

Near the close of the market we got some upward momentum which broke a level set a couple of hours before. Again we get a retest of the support level and a new high was made. But there was a quick spike that could be perceived as a lower high. So I lowered my trade to 1 contract and got a lucky fill. This setup look so good on the SPY that I actually went long on the ETF as well. The price moved up quickly then bounced from the recent high. I was desperate for a win since I was 0-5 right now so I placed my order 1 tick below the high and it was filled quickly. Yes I missed the big move but I am nervous when we are near the close. Plus I held much longer on the SPY for a nice run.

[Rob C 826]

 

Futures (ES) live trading journal 2/9/21 Tuesday.

I am still making mistakes so I still haven't recovered from the break of the winning streak. But I am feeling better.

There was some downward momentum in the PM. Soon after the open there was a pull back and an entry and I shorted. After a few minutes of moving sideways the price dropped to my conservative target. I was seriously thinking of quitting for the day while I am ahead since the volume today seemed low. But I decided to watch the chart the whole day.

The price bounced back and broke out of a forming level. The price came back down and tested the level and went back for a new high. So this is a really good break out (BO) setup. The price pulled back again and I went long. A few minutes later I was stopped out by two ticks.

Then a setup for a failed breakout trade occurred so I flipped (short) and got stopped out quickly. This is where my mistake occurred. For trend trades I mostly follow the ES tick chart, though I do look at the SPY ETF for confirmation. But for reversals I must have a reversal setup on the SPY as well to take a trade. I didn't even look at the SPY (I have one full computer screen with just the SPY). After I was stopped out I happen to look and the SPY looked like a very good long setup at the same moment I shorted. If I had looked I would have never have taken the trade.

It was a few hours later before we got momentum again. the price rose and we had a strong pull back. I took an entry passed the midband (white) and went long with two contracts. Even after 2 years and 4 months of live trading this was my longest trade I have every took (80 minutes). It was 25 minutes before my first partial.  During almost the next hour I slowly moved up my stop until the price made a new low and I exited.

I hope everyone traded well today.

Rob C

 

[Rob C 826]

Futures (ES) live trading journal 2/10/21 Wednesday.

Max loss again today (defined by 3 losses). When I crash and burn after a winning streak in equities, it usually takes a week of sloppy trading before I recover. It looks like it will be the same with Futures. I have tried, with equities, taking time off and trading in SIM (for over a week) after a winning streak. But it doesn't work. Once I go back live (with lower risk) I trade sloppy for a week, then recover. So a have a couple more days to go. What is interesting is I am doing really well with equities this week. So my mind really has the two instruments separate.

The market open with some momentum down. I thought the momentum was too weak to trade so I let the test trade setup go by and missed the huge drop. Feeling pretty high on the FOMO I waited for another setup. A really pretty test trade setup occurred at 10:30am EST with strong downward momentum and a strong pull back. My order was not filled and the price dropped to the outer band (red line). By my rule once the outer band is touched the setup is gone. The price moved back up and gave a really nice entry, which by my rule I didn't take. Then the price dropped and reached my target. 

So now the FOMO is getting really strong. So when a "Test-Retest" setup (essentially a double bottom) occurred I went long even though the entrance is in the middle 1/3 of the range. Thus, by rule it is no longer a valid setup. But I took it anyway and was stopped out. 

Then the price dropped again with a strong pullback. It gave me an entry and I shorted. By rule the first task that needs to be done after the entrance is set the limit order at the target. I usually have several minutes to do this, but you never know. So mistake number two of the day is I waited a few seconds before setting the order and in a few seconds the price dropped and reached my target and pulled back. I missed it. Then mistake number 3, by rule after the price reaches your conservative target you must place your stop at B/E. But trying to salvage the trade I gave it some room and was stopped out.

Then I was away from my computer for two hours and missed a winning Test-Retest trade. So FOMO is now at boiling levels. So when another Test-Retest trade was setting up 10 minutes before 2pm I took it even though I know Powell was speaking and taking any trade at that time is a major rule break. So as expected I got stopped out moments after the speech started.

I hope everyone is trading well today.

Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Futures (ES) live trading journal 2/11/21 Thursday.

Still trading a bit sloppy, but it feels nice to have a positive day.

Momentum was weak and went a bit sideways. We had a LOTD break out set up. A new low was made and then a pull back where we tested the back side of the level. Then a new low was made and I set my order just below the level. The order was filled and price dropped. The mistake I made is when I pulled my stop down to my B/E instead of just above the nearest low. The price came back up and stop me out by a tick before going on an amazing run down. The good news is I took the same trade on the SPY ETF and caught the run down.

When the price finally bottomed it had a nice pull back and an entry. But the reward to risk was a bit low so I should have taken just one contract but FOMO was bad from missing the last trade and I shorted with 2 contracts and was stopped out. 

There was a larger pull back with better reward to risk. I shorted on the entry passed the mid-band (white line) with two contracts. The price actually reached my final target.

I hope everyone had a good day trading.

Rob C

 

[Rob C 826]

Futures (ES) live trading journal 2/12/21 Friday.

First clean trading day in a week.

Due to a scheduling change I usually miss some of the morning trading. It can be a bit frustrating when I arrive back at my computer to see the trades I missed. And today it might have been the best setup this month I missed. So the FOMO was high when I started to trade, but good news is I kept it under control. There were two setups not long after I started trading that were questionable and I stayed discipline and did not trade them.

An hour after the market open the ES sprang higher and then bounced around a level for an hour. When it finally broke though the level and was rejected it made a real pretty failed breakout setup. I shorted and was stopped out, but it was a really good trade. 

About an hour later another failed breakout occurred and I went short again. This one did work out. But when the price was one tick from my cover order it missed the fill 3 times. So I pulled the order up and covered.

Since the bandwidth on the first trade was larger the stop was was larger. By the time of the second trade the bandwidth decreased so my target decreased. That, plus moving my target short my winner was only 25% larger than my loser. But I am really happy going into the 3 day weekend with a positive day.

Everyone enjoy your 3 day weekend and Happy Lunar New Year.

Rob C

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Futures (ES) live trading journal 2/16/21 Tuesday.

I did hit max loss today (defined by three stop outs) but I did trade OK today. So its just one of those days.

There was good downward momentum in PM and we had a strong pull back giving an entry to catch the continued downward move. But I was stopped out by a tick. It happens.

The price made a new low and rose to test the backside of the level then made a new low. It was a good break out (BO) set up, though the drop and rise in price was a little too sharp thus probably the reason I was immediately stopped out. 

The price dropped sharply again and a strong pull back. This was the best setup (TT) of the day so I shorted with two contracts. The price tried to drop 3 times. On the last try I covered on one contract. I have a rule after taking a partial or if there are 3 tries for the price to move and fails to move, I set my stop to B/E. Which I did and was stopped out by 2 ticks before the price dropped to my target. 

Then I was away from my screen and missed two setups. But I was at my screen when a "2nd times a charm" (2TC) setup occurred. This is when you have good momentum and a pull back which fails to go back to the low/high. Then pulls back more for another entry with larger reward to risk. So I shorted and was immediately stopped out.

So I ended my day early, but that is OK I needed more time to replace a bathroom faucet which ended up trickier than expected.

I hope everyone had a good day trading.

Rob C

 

 

Edited February 17, 2021 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Futures (ES) live trading journal 2/17/21 Wednesday.

A one and done day, thank goodness.

There was good downward momentum from the PM and a strong pullback (bounced at SPY ETF YY LOTD) after the open. I tried to enter a "Test-Trade" but price did not give an entry. The price broke right through the level and reversed and I took a long entry on a failed break (FOBO) out setup. I took 2 contracts and covered one when the price stalled at the pullback's high. Then covered the other contract after the price was getting a little erratic.

Test Trade and FOBO are setups I learned from the Day trading Academy.

I hope everyone has a solid day of trading.

Rob C

 

[Bailey Nevener 83]

Hello Rob!

I see you are one of the most active members on Bear Bull Traders forums.  I was wondering if you have had success in making a ‘living’ from trading yet, or what you feel is the distance between yourself and that.

I personally have not hit this level by any means.  I would also like to add most of my consistent success with day trading has arisen from my own strategies and I have found very little consistency from any moderator’s thought process other than Aiman.

Appreciate your thoughts.

Bailey Nevener

[Rob C 826]

6 hours ago, Bailey Nevener said:

Hello Rob!

I see you are one of the most active members on Bear Bull Traders forums.  I was wondering if you have had success in making a ‘living’ from trading yet, or what you feel is the distance between yourself and that.

I personally have not hit this level by any means.  I would also like to add most of my consistent success with day trading has arisen from my own strategies and I have found very little consistency from any moderator’s thought process other than Aiman.

Appreciate your thoughts.

Bailey Nevener

Hi Baily,

Thanks for your post. Nope I still have a day job. When I started learning/practicing day trading, almost 3 years ago, I did create a business plan. The time line I gave myself was 5 years to learn the trade and work my way up to an income that I can sustain my present cost of living. I didn't see any profit for the first year and a half. I am definitely not made for day trading. My heart would pound against my ribs on every trade for the first year. So I had to make a lot of modifications to my personality. I think this was probably the reason why I stuck with it. I saw improvements in my discipline and patience in all parts of my life. Trading was essentially the vehicle for self improvement. Also I was well disciplined with my risk. So I wasn't losing much money during the 1.5 years.

Once profitable I ran into my next challenge which was sustainability. My systems in my tradebook seem to be profitable 4 to 6 months at a time. So I would prove them in SIM then spend a month with small risk. Then I would slowly increase my risk. Just about the time I would start making decent money my system would start to fail and I would go back in SIM to figure out what changes I need to make. I don't know if I have faulty systems or I am poor with continuously tweaking my tradebook, so they will fail sooner or later. I just hit a big snag like that recently. End of November I suddenly lost profitability so I went back to SIM. It took 6 weeks before I saw profitability return and now I am slowly increasing my risk.

I know it sounds like an insult when it takes longer than others to reach CPT level. But it really isn't. All of us perform self programming to fit our life endeavors. If these self modifications happen not to be ideal for the traits we need for trading, it takes longer to become a CPT. I personally have a really bad FOBW. Likely from being an engineer. I don't design processes to fail 40% of the time. So its a big task to change my mindset.

My biggest tip? Is turning off the chat when you are trading and only turn it back on when you are done for the day and just watching to learn. Just hearing the chat sways me a lot. When I turned off the chat, just before the open is when I made my first step into profitability.

Good luck with your trading.

Rob