Rob C's Trading Journal - starting Feb 1 2019

[Mike B 624]

I was sloppy today as well. Tough market to trade today.

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 7/02/2019

I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. My nerves were good. Still on SIM only.

I took 3 SIM trades today. One with MU, one with AMD and one with NFLX. Still trading a bit sloppy.

MU looked weak, but I needed a really good entry. I got a pull back but was concerned it was such a big pull back it was more like a reversal. Price did bounce and headed lower a few pennies. I went short when the price was between the VWAP-1min and VWAP-5min. I love taking trades in between the two VWAPs. I just don't see reversals occur between the two VWAP time frames. Whatever direction it is going in it continues until it reached the other VWAP. Target was the 39.4 level with a tight stop at the 39.75 level. R/R~3. I tried to take a partial at the LOTD but made a hot key mistake and added a little. I always make a lot more hotkey mistakes in SIM. I then made a real cover, but didn’t notice the price was already was 20 cents into profit and thus at 2R. So I should have made a larger partial or completely exited. Instead I took a normal first partial. Then price reversed and I was stopped out near break even for a small win. Sloppy. I let a 2R get away from me because I didn’t stay in touch of the total price move.

This is what MU looked like when I took the trade.

 

My next trade was with AMD. This trade didn’t work out, but I really like the setup, though waiting for the 5min candle confirmation would have been smarter. AMD also looked weak this morning and had a really nice pullback and bounced strongly off of VWAP. I shorted once I saw the 4^th 1min candle was going to be red. Target was the 3.70 level and VWAP as my S/O. I did make it to my first partial (the low of premarket) but it reversed and I was stopped out at B/E. There was a bit of a slide on the exit so I was flat for this trade.

This is what AMD looked like when I took the trade.

 

 

My last trade was with NFLX. I was waiting to see if the price would break this really strong support level at 373.25. It didn’t and started heading up. There were way too many levels above it to try to go long. Instead I took a small risk that this was a pull back since it did bounce from the 20-50MA 4 times. On the fourth bounce I shorted. The spread was tight at that moment so I kept the S/O tight at the 50MA with the target of the 200MA-5min. R/R~3. After 10 seconds price reversed and headed back up and I was S/O. NFLX started its run down about two minutes later but I was at my trade maximum already. The loss was small so I am flat for the day.

 

 

What I did good today:  Waited for pullbacks.

How did I challenge myself today?  Exited at B/E.

What I did bad today:  Traded sloppy.

What can I do better tomorrow:  Need to keep discipline on the SIM. Hopefully successful by the end of the week.

 

 

[Mark D. 435]

Hi Rob, 

Here's my commissions from yesterday on the tiered IB plan. I took 100 shares of MU and 50 on GBX. 

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 7/03/2019

I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning. My nerves were good. Still on SIM only.

I took 3 SIM trades today. One with AMD and two with NFLX. Still a bit sloppy and FOMO issues even on SIM.

NFLX gave no signs in the premarket what it would do. Plenty of volume in the first 20 seconds after open then was dry. NFLX gave a very bullish 2 minute candle but I didn’t feel comfortable taking the trade then. The price went up almost a dollar without any green showing up in the price and sales. I am so not use to that. The price retraced back to VWAP then moved back up and finally green hit the tape. I went long on the break of the 377.04 daily level. My target was 379.25 with VWAP as my stop. After trading NFLX for a few days that may be unreasonable and shouldn’t expect to go past my first partial target of 377.87. Still need to learn.

Price made it to my first partial near the 377.87 but I forgot that I have to sell at the bid not the price. I forgot and sold a partial when the price reached my 1^st target. The bid was far below it and I essentially sold my shares at B/E. I waited until the bid hit my target and I partialed. Then when I took a second partial I forgot that NFLX should be more of a scalp and I partialed light. The price reversed and I got out at B/E. So with the two trade management mistakes it was only a small win.

What it looked like when I took the trade:

The total trade:

The next trade was with AMD. AMD was an unusual setup that I have never taken before. It was essentially a V-reversal 5min after the open. But I do see AMD bounce back to VWAP often when it’s extended. AMD fell 35 cents in 3 minutes then paused. What caught my attention was a 72k bid on L2 3 cents below the price. It quickly disappeared and in return several asks totaling around 30k about 5 cents above the price. I had also noticed that SPY was climbing. I went long on the 1min high with the PDC as my target and the LOTD as my stop out.

I took my first partial at the 9MA and my second at VWAP. I lost faith in the trade about 2 minutes later and exited.

The charts when I entered the trade:

The total trade:

 

My last trade was with NFLX again and sadly was a FOMO trade. The really nice setup occurred on NFLX while I was trading AMD and thus missed it. It bounced off of the VWAP 3 times. I usually take the third bounce to enter the trade. Instead I took the trade at the break of the 377.87 daily level. The true R/R is only 1.3, but I chose an incorrect S/O of the bottom of the candle so I could have an R/R~2. But that was not the correct stop. If I used VWAP as the S/O I would have had a winner. The trade entrance should have been 3 minutes earlier or should not have entered. Though I did get a small partial, the trade was a loser as my S/O was too tight.

What it looked like when I entered the trade:

 

 

What I did good today:  Finally green. First time in a week.

How did I challenge myself today?  Watched time/sales more. Something I wanted to practice while in SIM.

What I did bad today:  Traded sloppy.

What can I do better tomorrow:  Need to keep discipline on the SIM. If I keep trading like this I will be on SIM all next week as well.

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Friday 7/05/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. My nerves were not good. Still on SIM only.

About 5 minutes before the open my daughter seemed to be yelling in distress. It sounded serious enough that I left my platform to have a look. Yep it was bug. She has quite a strong phobia about them. I told her my hopes of having an insect biologist in the family is fading fast, which she responded by jumping into my arms in fear. It was interesting that I did pause before killing the bug. I am finding it harder and harder to kill insects since I have been reading more books on Buddhism. Then my daughter asked to be put down. So I said to her, ”OK, you are short and poor.” She definitely did not find it as funny as me and yelled, “no, I mean on the ground!” As usual time flies fast when spending time with her, so when I headed back to my platform the market already open. I panicked to see NFLX setup just as I expected and was moving by my planned entry point. So I immediately took the trade. I shouldn’t have. I was not mentally ready, I didn’t even have a chance to turn on my screen recorder yet. So I managed the trade poorly. I should have just taken a breather and let the trade go by.

I took 3 SIM trades today. One with NFLX, one with MU, and one with FB.

NFLX had a really strong premarket low level that it tested over and over for 45 minutes. So my scenario was, if NFLX dropped at the open and bounced off the 377.82 daily level I would go long when it broke the 378.25 strong premarket level. Though there are some levels above it, if it broke the 379.50 level it may run since the levels above it are sparse. As I discussed above I was late to my platform and took the trade a little late and was not mentally prepared. I did take two partials at the two levels (daily level and 200MA), though both were close to my entry. Then the lack of mental preparedness kicked in and decided to add to my position when it retraced to VWAP. But, I didn’t check the ask so I added based on price. There was no retrace it was just a fluctuation inside the spread. So I added at the same price as my partial. NFLX never broke the 200MA and retraced. When the BID touched my B/E I exited. Too bad about trying to add. I made a small winner into a loser.

I saw MU setting up really well, but at the time I wanted to enter I was still in my NFLX trade. I have an one trade at a time rule and also a rule of not closing a trade to start another one. So I missed the entrance when MU was forming a bullish 2min hammer and crossed VWAP, the 50MA and a daily level all at approximately the same time. After I was out of NFLX I did see MU pull back to the 31.18 level and I went long. My target was the high of premarket but honestly my S/O was ill-defined. But I was planning on stopping out a few cents below the bottom of the wick of the current candle. Though my partials were at levels (HOTD and high of premarket), they were still taken more from nerves. Then I stopped out just before I hit B/E. If I waited for B/E I would have reached my target. Nerves and sloppiness.

My last trade of the day was with FB. Honestly, I wanted to stop after my second trade. I was positive for the day and still had not recovered from being late to the open. But, the setup on FB looked too good to ignore. My win% on 5min ORBs have been bad. The main reason is I take the trade when one of the time frames look good and the other one adequate. But, I don’t wait for a trade that both 1min and 5min time frames look good. But that is what I had on FB this morning. If I look at either time frame it looks like a good trade. The 1min showed weakness, then a pull back, then indecision and the downward movement again. The 5min chart has shown weakness for the last hour and the 5min candle was bearish and not extended. So I shorted on the break of the 5min candle body. My target was the 195 level with stop out at the high of the previous candle. My nerves really showed by taking a ton of partials. I exited when it looked like it may reverse.

What I did good today:  Best trading day in the last 7. Also, an extremely good day for a Friday.

How did I challenge myself today?  Was late to the open, which caused a lot of nervousness, but still traded adequately enough to be green.

What I did bad today:  Traded sloppy.

What can I do better tomorrow:  Unsure yet if I will be on SIM on Monday. I traded sloppy this week, but that was the original reason why I went live several months ago. I always traded sloppy on SIM. So do I stay on SIM until the sloppiness goes away or go back to live before the sloppy bad habits are formed. I will have to review my trades and decide this weekend.

 

 

[Mark D. 435]

Quality dad joke 

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 7/05/19.

Traded SIM all week due to three days in a row of all losses. The trading improved as the week went on. I was sloppy all week, but that is common for me on SIM. I don’t want to make sloppiness a habit so I am switching back to live on Monday but will trade half shares.

I traded NFLX mostly this week since back test data showed it became in play at the open. But as luck had it, it was not in play this week. But I learned a lot trading something that the spread would vary continuously. I was always nervous about trading BABA and TSLA due to their unpredictable spread, but I think I am OK now. BABA and TSLA spreads are not as bad as NFLX.

Back test data shows nothing looks very in play at the open for next week. Though MU, AAPL and JD look OK. I am comfortable with MU. I had to make quite an effort to stop trading AAPL when it was no longer in play, so I will have conflicting emotions I will need to deal with. And I have very little experience trading JD.

Here is my plan for this week:

Concentrate on process and score card, not on W% and P/L

AAPL is in play at the open again. JD is now in play. Decide by premarket which should be higher focused.

FB had a marginal week again. Assume it is no longer in play at the open.

AMD was no longer in play for the 2min ORB. Do not focus on it at the open.

MU is in play at the open, make it your primary focus for the week.

Trade half share size until trading improves.

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Monday 7/08/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning. My nerves were good. Trading live but on half shares.

I took 3 live trades today. One with MU, then BABA and one with MU again that was supposed to be on SIM but was accidentally live.

MU and AAPL were my primary focuses at the open. Both gapped down and had heavy levels above their current price, so I really did not want to trade either long. MU set up as a 2min ORB as it created a hammer and broke the 39.07 daily level, the HOTD and the high of premarket all around the same time. I would normally enter the trade there but there were so many strong levels above it I waited. It finally broke the 200MA-1min and 200MA-5min and I went long. Looking back it was probably extended. I should have taken the trade earlier or waited for it to break the 39.34 daily level, but I was too long biased at the time. Also R/R was only 1.5 but with a chance to go red to green I entered the trade with PDC as my target and the 39.17 level as my stop out. MU struggled to break the 39.34 level and 200MA for 4 minutes. But AMD was reversing and was moving higher so I was hoping MU would follow. But, then the price started to retrace I was stopped out at my planned level.

I was looking for a 10 min ORB setup and found BABA. At first it didn’t look good since it was near a daily level at 168.91. But, I had a minute to investigate before the 10 min candle finished. I couldn’t find where the 168.91 level was from but the daily level at 168 was created recently and was strong. So I shorted with the 168 level as my target and the 169.76 level as my S/O. The price did drop to the 168.91 level where I took a first partial, but apparently that level was strong and it bounced. I exited the trade slightly beyond my B/E when it was clearly reversing.

MU reversed and was setting up the same as my first trade. I was going to wait for the price to break the 200MA again so I had time to switch to SIM. After switching the order entry template I forgot to click my watch list to activate the change. So when I went long at the break of the 200MA I was still in live mode. I noticed this right away but the trade was moving in my favor. Since I should not be taking this trade live I partialed heavier. Instead of ¼, ¼, ¼, etc, I partial ¼, 1/3, ½ and thus ran out of shares fast and missed most of the move. This bothered me and even though I partialed heavy on purpose due to the hot key mistake. I really don’t like my MU winner was a tiny bit smaller than my MU loser.

Score card:

What I did good today:  Nerves were fine even though it’s the first live trading in 9 days.

How did I challenge myself today?  I took a 10 minute ORB.

What I did bad today:  Should have followed my instincts with the first MU trade and entered early. Hot key mistake.

What can I do better tomorrow:  I shouldn’t be so biased where to enter a trade. Things continuously change and so should the trade setup.

 

 

Edited July 8, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Tuesday 7/09/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. My nerves were OK. Trading live but with half shares.

I took 1 live trade today with MU. I did take 2 SIM trades after MU to practice 5min/10min ORBs but was stopped out on both. I will only journal the live trade here.

MU and AAPL were my primary focuses at the open again. Both had lots of levels above the open price and mostly clear space below. I watched both intensely and already had a trade scenario for long/short for both stocks in my head. For MU long, I would enter (long) the trade if it broke the triple level of  VWAP, the daily level of 40.28 and the engulfing of the last 5min candle in premarket. The price broke that level 23 seconds after the opening. My target was the 40.61 level with my S/O at below the 50MA-5min (40.20) which was respected in premarket.

This is what it looked like when I entered the trade:

There was slippage on the fill, but that is common so close to the open. Though my partialing was poor as usual, it was better than yesterday. My first two partials were actually as planned. I took 25% at PDC and high of premarket. My third partial was supposedly going to be at 40.61 but nerves caused me to partial at HOTD. Then a correct partial at the 40.61 level and again a bad partial soon after and missed the rest of the run.

 Score card

What I did good today:  Followed my entry plan.

How did I challenge myself today?  Took only SIM trades when trading out of my element.

What I did bad today:  The usual, I was hitting the sell button like it was the shooting button on a video game.

What can I do better tomorrow:  Will run the numbers this week. If I see the data in front of me how bad my partialing is I may be more patient about it.

 

Edited July 10, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 826]

Wednesday 7/10/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves were not good, though I don’t know why. Meditated longer than usual to calm the nerves, which worked. But, it was temporary, my heart was pounding at the open. Trading live but with half shares.

I took 2 live trades today with MU and AAPL.

MU and AAPL were my primary focuses at the open again. Both stocks had a really strong premarket. When I was creating my mental opening scenarios, I planned NOT to take either short at the open and only long if the first minute candle was a hammer. It ended up both stocks created an 1min hammer.

I took MU as my first trade because it setup first. It bounced off a strong support at $42, made a nice hammer and already a volume of 1M shares in the first 30 seconds. I went long with the 42.61 daily level as my target and VWAP as my S/O. It touched my stop out level 3 times so my nerves were getting bad. I am not sure if I was being careless or not focusing enough (I couldn’t keep my eyes off AAPL which had a really nice setup too) but I made the mistake of not noticing the Y-axis scale. When the price reached my first partial ( a notable premarket level) I didn’t notice I was already 20 cents in the green. That should have been a large partial. Instead all I thought was that I partial too much and make it small. The price then quickly retraced and I was stopped out. Since VWAP was so close to my B/E I let it go past my B/E a few cents. I did give my profits all back though. Too bad I made that Y-scale mistake again. This could have been a solid winner instead of a small loser.

AAPL setup had come and gone. Both the 1min ORB and even the 2min ORB the entrance had past. But I guess the FOMO was to strong and I entered the trade immediately after I exited MU. The R/R was about one now. My S/O was the 202.31 premarket level. My target realistically was the 202.87 level. But, what caused the rational to take the trade is there is no level for about $1.50 above that level. So if it breaks it could run. But, this was a mistake and I shouldn’t have taken the trade. There were many other stocks setting up. I just had FOMO from watching it during the whole MU trade and was dying to enter. The price did reach my target, but not much profit can be made by that. It did form an ABCD so I was hoping it would pop higher. It popped a little but not much. Plus, it hurt watching MU really run while I was in the stagnate AAPL trade. If I caught AAPL at one of its actual entry points it would have been a nice trade, but I was chasing. Yes I made a profit from it but this was a mistake.

Score card

What I did good today:  Created a correct entry scenario for both stocks.

How did I challenge myself today?  Fought through my nerves.

What I did bad today:  Couldn’t keep my eye on my trade. I kept looking at other charts. I chased AAPL.

What can I do better tomorrow:  Focus on one trade at a time.

 

[Rob C 826]

Thursday 7/11/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. My nerves were fine. Trading live but with half shares.

I took one live trade today with AAPL.

MU and AAPL were my primary focuses at the open again. Both stocks had an adequate premarket. As usual I was creating my mental opening scenarios. I had no bias this morning and thus had both long and short scenerios created for both stocks.

AAPL was showing strength and I was waiting for the break of the 50MA-1min to go long. It tested that level a few times before finally breaking through and thus entered long. The target was the 204.33 daily level and my stop out was tight at the 203.6 (VWAP, 200MA and bottom of the candle). I tried taking my first partial at the 204 level and got a bad fill. From then on my partialing was as usual too abundant. The price struggled to break the 204.33 daily level for a couple of minutes than started to drop. I moved my stop to the 204 level and exited when it was breached. AAPL didn’t make too much of a move today.

I also took one SIM trade on a 15min ORB and was quickly stopped out as usual.

Score card for my live trade.

What I did good today:  Created a working entry scenario.

How did I challenge myself today?  Focused on one trade. I would glance at the others (and SPY) only to give insight to my current trade.

What I did bad today:  The usual: way too many partials.

What can I do better tomorrow:  Working on new partialing criteria will implement on Monday.

 

[Rob C 826]

Friday 7/12/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves were fine. Trading live but with half shares.

I took two live trades today with MU and AAPL.

MU and AAPL were my primary focuses at the open all week. Both stocks had an adequate premarket. As usual I was creating my mental opening scenarios. But I was long biased on both stocks, maybe too biased. So I only created long scenarios for the open.

For my scenario for MU I was hoping price would drop and bounce off the 200MA-5min and then I would go long when it broke the 50MA-1min and VWAP, which is what I did. My target was the level 44 with my stop at 43.70.

What MU looked like when I entered the trade.

The price was bouncing around a bit. I did take a quick partial more for risk reduction than profit taking. I really didn’t like MU created two reverse hammers on the 1min chart so I stopped out a few cents early.

I was focused on MU so I was surprised, when the trade finished, that AAPL had a really good setup. But since it was a surprise it took me one or two seconds to setup up the R/R, target, stop, etc. So I did chase it a little. But, it still had a R/R>2 at my entry. I really liked the hammer on the 2^nd 1min candle and I like that both candles were struggling to cleanly break the 202.87 daily and the 203 level. Then went long on a clean break. The volume concerned me a little. Usually the min volume I like to see on AAPL to be in play is 400k in the first minute. My target was the 203.75 level and my stop was the 202.87 level.

Then the waiting game started. The price just missed my stop out by a penny 4 minutes later. Finally 12 minutes after my entry the price broke out. I took lots of partials, as usual, with my final exit at 204.

Score card for my live trade.

What I did good today:  Got out of a losing trade early.

How did I challenge myself today?  Patiently waited 12 minutes for the break to occur.

What I did bad today:  The usual: way too many partials.

What can I do better tomorrow:  Working on new partialing criteria will implement on Monday.

 

[Rob C 826]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 7/12/19.

Traded half share size all week as I slowly get myself back up to speed after a painful 3 days of terrible trading at the end of June. So first week of July I traded SIM only, then this week at half shares. Next week I will trade at $25 risk per trade.

My score card for the week was OK at 86% and win% was also OK at 56%. I was green for the week, which always helps my mood going into the weekend.

I analyzed my last 50 live trades to determine a new method of taking partial profits. I was surprised by the data. I was assuming the data would show that I should use range limit orders or I should decrease the size of my first partial. But, it actually said the opposite. I only have a 22% success rate of reaching my target. It seems that my targets look reachable, so it is probably my setups/time frame I trade in. But, this means taking partial profit is vital. 29% of all my 1min/2min ORBs reach my first partial price and retrace to get stopped out. Thus, the first partial profit is vital and I should not change it. But, there always seems to be at least one (if not two) extra partials on the way to the target. Those are the ones I need to work on. I will start to make an effort to reach my target with in 4 partials (it usually takes 5). I may try and use a limit order on the 4^th partial.

I traded almost entirely MU and AAPL this week. There was only one other stock (BABA) where I unsuccessfully tried a 10min ORB. There were a couple of SIM trades trying other time frame ORBs. All were unsuccessful.

Back test data shows nothing looks very in play at the open for next week. Though MU, AAPL still look OK. JD was not in play last week so it’s removed from the watch list. FB was definitely in play last week, though the previous two weeks it was not. So I will plan the two primary focuses each day based on premarket data.

Here is my plan for this week:

Concentrate on process and score card, not on W% and P/L

AAPL is in play at the open again. So is FB. Decide by premarket which should be higher focused.

JD had a poor week. Assume it is no longer in play at the open.

AMD is no longer in play for the 2min ORB. Do not focus on it at the open.

MU is in play at the open, make it your primary focus for the week.

Go back to full share size next week, $25 risk per trade.

 

 

 

[Rob C 826]

Monday 7/15/2019

I had a well-being score of 6/10 this morning (had a headache). My nerves were a little negative. Probably due to trading full shares today (first time in two weeks).

I took one live trade today with MU. I also took two SIM trades, a 5min ORB and a 15min ORB. Both SIM trades were stopped out. I am only journaling the live trade.

According to back test data I was expecting MU, FB and AAPL to be in play. FB looked better in the premarket so I made MU and FB my two focuses at the open. I was short bias on FB  but had no bias on MU. As usual I was creating my mental opening scenarios. But I was uncomfortable trading FB to the upside at the open.

MU dropped and bounced off the 44.63 daily level and I went long a little before the break of the 44.79 level. I didn’t wait for the break since I saw a big ask. . I didn’t have a set R/R because I had no levels after the 44.88 daily level and MU doesn’t usually respect dollar levels much anymore. My S/O was the 200MA-1min.

I took my first partial at the 44.88 daily level, then I had no more levels so I partialled with the only aim that my 4^th partial would be at 2R. Which it was. I finally exited when the price dropped below VWAP. I also saw the largest ask I can remember during this trade. 

 

Score card for my live trade.

MU

92%

 

What I did good today:  Took a good setup, even though it was very close to the open.

How did I challenge myself today?  Swapped out AAPL for FB to focus on at the open. That took some resolve.

What I did bad today:  I can’t remember the last time I wasn’t stopped out on any trade besides the 1min/2min ORB. SIM or Live. I definitely have only one play in my playbook.

What can I do better tomorrow:  Keep working on the other setups.

 

Edited July 16, 2019 by Rob C

[Mark D. 435]

nice trade