Feeling stuck... Need some advices

[Mohamed Omar 0]

Hi Bear Bull Traders, I hope everyone is doing fine. I just signed up for my life time membership. 🙂 

Before I start I just want to mention that English is my third language, so I apologize for the mistake in advance.  

I've been trading for a year now, I started with simulator for 3 months, and then I went live, it was a total failure lol, I lost all of my account (10k) in 3-4 months, so I went back to simulator, and I'm still there. I'm still not profitable. I read multiple book including Andrew's 2 books on day trading, I skipped only 9 days of trading in one year so I'm very dedicated. I have a solid morning routine, and I sleep well. I feel that I'm getting a LOT better, and I have a lot more control on my emotions, but still at the end of the month I'm NEVER profitable.  

I trade in simulator, with 5000$ account.
Max loss 300$ (6 %)per day
Risk per trade 100$ (2%)
Risk / reward goal 1:2 (risk 100$ to make 200$).  

I don't trade in the first 5 min 
I don't trade low float stocks
I don't trade after I make a minimum of 1% profit of my account ( I'm thinking of getting this up to 2%, but not sure )*** 
I don't look at my P/L when I'm trading.

***I have a problem in setting a daily goal, I feel 1% profit per day is to low, because when I hit 4-5 days max loss per month I end up losing at the end of the month.

Andrew's advice:

2% profit per day is a big aggressive, specially with small size.

Use 1% risk per trade and 3% max per day.


Any other advice guys ?


Thank you all!



 

[Abiel 475]

Hi Mohamed... what are the causes you have detected for this performance? 

How was your performance in the 3 months simulation?

 

 

[BrianS 5]

Hi Mohamed,

What are your win/loss percentages on your trades?  Are all of your losers full risk losses by your rules?  When you are exiting, are how close are you coming to your 2 to 1 risk reward target?  I feel like those questions would need to be answered to know if it is money management or entries that are hurting your profits.  It does feel like your risk per trade is high as Andrew said.  Let's say there are 20 trading days in a month, if you hit max loss of $300 4 times, that is $1,200 of loss.  With your daily profit goal of 1%, you cannot get back to even in the remaining 16 trading days so something in the mix has to change.

[Mohamed Omar 0]

14 hours ago, Abiel said:

Hi Mohamed... what are the causes you have detected for this performance? 

How was your performance in the 3 months simulation?

 

 

Hi Abiel, thanks for your response. 

I think my daily goal is to low for my max daily loss.
And sometimes my position size is too big, so I get stopped out on pullbacks. 

I'm still in the simulator right now, my performance is getting better everyday,

But to be honest, since I've never experienced a winning month yet in a full year, I feet that there is something I'm doing wrong. 

Thank you 🙂

[Mohamed Omar 0]

6 hours ago, BrianS said:

Hi Mohamed,

What are your win/loss percentages on your trades?  Are all of your losers full risk losses by your rules?  When you are exiting, are how close are you coming to your 2 to 1 risk reward target?  I feel like those questions would need to be answered to know if it is money management or entries that are hurting your profits.  It does feel like your risk per trade is high as Andrew said.  Let's say there are 20 trading days in a month, if you hit max loss of $300 4 times, that is $1,200 of loss.  With your daily profit goal of 1%, you cannot get back to even in the remaining 16 trading days so something in the mix has to change.

Hi Brian, thanks for your response.

- Win/ loss percentage : 40-65% win rate 

- Are all of your losers full risk losses by your rules? Yes, if the trade go against me right away I wait for it to hit my full risk, if it goes to my favor at 25-30 cent away of my entry I move my stop to break even.

- When you are exiting, are how close are you coming to your 2 to 1 risk reward target? My goal is to hit the 2 to 1 risk reward, but if the stock is struggling to go to my target I will start taking partials at 1:1 risk reward.

Yes I just realized that to, so should I do that :

With a 5000$ Account 

Risk per trade : 1% = 50$
Reward per trade : 2%= 100$
Minimum Daily goal : 2%= 100$
Max daily loss : 3%= 150$


So in 20 trading days, if I hit 4 max loss of 150$ = 600$
And 16 days of a minimum of 100$ = 1600$
So I should end the month at 1000$ profit = 20% of my account.

The only problem I see with that, is 16 winning days on 20 days is 80% win rate for the month, so let's say my win rate is at 60% not 80%, I will not be profitable.

Any advice ?

Thank you 🙂  
 

[Skye 28]

Mohamed, I was using numbers similar to those and also found that it didn't work so well. As you have said, the daily max loss kills your account. But bringing that down and keeping the trade risk the same means you don't have much of a chance if you start with a bad trade or two. 

My approach was to change to this approach:

Risk per trade : = 30$
Reward per trade : N/A (focus on good risk/reward and using proper levels) 
Daily goal : 50$ (really good days will sometimes be 100$+)
Max daily loss : 50$ (will sometimes hit around 75$)

A couple of things I have found to be really important:

This is the big one: I should rarely hit my stop loss. A typical example would be a by with the candle bouncing off of a moving average after pulling back. The idea I have going into that trade is that the stock is going to move up (let's say it's a long). If it goes under the line instead, then I was wrong. So of course the question then is will it just go to the next moving average which is close by? Is that moving average farther away? Is there anything that's going to keep it from going the wrong way? The point is at this stage I realize that I was wrong and I'm questioning the trade. If I don't have a pretty solid feeling of Plan B like there's another moving average close by that I can wait for, I'll sell it. I really learned this from Andrew. Where Andrew would buy a stock and then start questioning "Well is it really going to do something? I don't know, I'm not feeling so good about it" and then he would sell it. I would be sitting on that stock waiting for it to go all the way back to my Max loss. It's similar to when a stock is moving but then it just starts bouncing up down up down on the 1-minute chart and it's not really doing anything. You start questioning yourself, is this really going anywhere is it going to do something? I'm more likely to sell that stock than I used to be. Before it drops like a rock and I hit my stop loss and feel like I kind of knew that was coming. I can afford to make a small amount of money. I can afford to lose a small amount of money. I really can't afford to hit that Max stop loss in a situation like that.

I only scale-out once at 50%. Or I'll just sell the whole thing if I'm at a strong resistance line or am not too sure if it's going to keep going. The point is, the fees are really taking a toll with these small buys. If I do scale out of 50% and I'm hanging on to the rest, I'm really trying to be patient and wait for the close of the 5-minute candle without being able to make a new high. This is what I mostly working on right now. I keep selling too early and then the stock moves on without me. Again, with the fees being such a big part of the picture you need to let these things run when they're going your way to take advantage of what you're already in.

Another big one: I only trade 3 to 5 buys a day. Again, with the fees being so important with the small buys you can't really make money doing 15 or 20 tickets. This is also the only way I have found to successfully make myself really be patient and wait for the good setups. That's the thing about Sim, you're not really being impacted by the losses so it's easy to just keep trying keep trying. If I know that I'm going to quit after two more trades I'm going to be really careful about which two I'm going to use for that.

I do a screen capture of the five minute and one minute charts of my trades and put them in a document. I also put the profit loss info in a spreadsheet with a graph. But I don't really go over everything until the weekend. I have found that looking everyday doesn't really sink in as much as looking back at the last week and looking at the repeated mistakes that I've made. You know like patterns of things that I'm doing wrong.

 

[Mohamed Omar 0]

6 hours ago, fullmoonguru said:

Mohamed, I was using numbers similar to those and also found that it didn't work so well. As you have said, the daily max loss kills your account. But bringing that down and keeping the trade risk the same means you don't have much of a chance if you start with a bad trade or two. 

My approach was to change to this approach:

Risk per trade : = 30$
Reward per trade : N/A (focus on good risk/reward and using proper levels) 
Daily goal : 50$ (really good days will sometimes be 100$+)
Max daily loss : 50$ (will sometimes hit around 75$)

A couple of things I have found to be really important:

This is the big one: I should rarely hit my stop loss. A typical example would be a by with the candle bouncing off of a moving average after pulling back. The idea I have going into that trade is that the stock is going to move up (let's say it's a long). If it goes under the line instead, then I was wrong. So of course the question then is will it just go to the next moving average which is close by? Is that moving average farther away? Is there anything that's going to keep it from going the wrong way? The point is at this stage I realize that I was wrong and I'm questioning the trade. If I don't have a pretty solid feeling of Plan B like there's another moving average close by that I can wait for, I'll sell it. I really learned this from Andrew. Where Andrew would buy a stock and then start questioning "Well is it really going to do something? I don't know, I'm not feeling so good about it" and then he would sell it. I would be sitting on that stock waiting for it to go all the way back to my Max loss. It's similar to when a stock is moving but then it just starts bouncing up down up down on the 1-minute chart and it's not really doing anything. You start questioning yourself, is this really going anywhere is it going to do something? I'm more likely to sell that stock than I used to be. Before it drops like a rock and I hit my stop loss and feel like I kind of knew that was coming. I can afford to make a small amount of money. I can afford to lose a small amount of money. I really can't afford to hit that Max stop loss in a situation like that.

I only scale-out once at 50%. Or I'll just sell the whole thing if I'm at a strong resistance line or am not too sure if it's going to keep going. The point is, the fees are really taking a toll with these small buys. If I do scale out of 50% and I'm hanging on to the rest, I'm really trying to be patient and wait for the close of the 5-minute candle without being able to make a new high. This is what I mostly working on right now. I keep selling too early and then the stock moves on without me. Again, with the fees being such a big part of the picture you need to let these things run when they're going your way to take advantage of what you're already in.

Another big one: I only trade 3 to 5 buys a day. Again, with the fees being so important with the small buys you can't really make money doing 15 or 20 tickets. This is also the only way I have found to successfully make myself really be patient and wait for the good setups. That's the thing about Sim, you're not really being impacted by the losses so it's easy to just keep trying keep trying. If I know that I'm going to quit after two more trades I'm going to be really careful about which two I'm going to use for that.

I do a screen capture of the five minute and one minute charts of my trades and put them in a document. I also put the profit loss info in a spreadsheet with a graph. But I don't really go over everything until the weekend. I have found that looking everyday doesn't really sink in as much as looking back at the last week and looking at the repeated mistakes that I've made. You know like patterns of things that I'm doing wrong.

 

Hi,
I dunno how to thank you, the two things you mentioned are 2 problems I actually have. I will right these on a stick note and keep them close. 

Thanks a lot 🙂 

[Bibonow 19]

To start off, I did not see the word ''Journal'' in your initial post and I think this is where the problem is. Here is a list of things you can watch IF you have been journaling your trades : 

1) Your stop loss : where are they situated ? in air ? on feeling ? on a technical indicator ? a price level? new 5 minutes high or low ? It needs to be somewhere for a reason

2) Your entry: Do you anticipate or enter when lvl breaks? On moving average ? Important lvl of Support and resistance ? 

3) Your Sizing according to stop : Do you stop out BEFORE your actual real stop ? 

4) Your trade management wich include the way you scale out. Wich can make or break your overall profit and Risk : reward

5) The stocks you decide to trade,   Whats the float, did it gap up or down more than x% ?

6) What patterns are you trading ? Are you going with your mood, experiencing, or do you have ONE OR TWO pattern that you are trying to master

7) are you revenge trading ? Are you chasing ? are you averaging down ? 

8 )  Whats your Win Rate % ? 

9) What is your average winners $ ?

10) What is your average losers $ ?

11) Do you cut your losses ?

If you Risk 1% per trade, aiming for 2:1 Risk:Reward, and your Daily Profit target is 1% , it doesn't make sens, your target should then be 2%  daily AT LEAST

Here is what I came up with : I calculate everything in ''R''  wich is What I risk per trade in $  (mine is 30$ for now with a 3.5K account) lets say 1% then

RISK PER TRADE : 1R
MAX DAILY LOSS: 2.5R  ( Why not a round number ? Because sometime trade is just no going anywhere and I get out without it going to my stop)
DAILY GOAL : 4R ( To me it is not to high because of my style of trading wich is more riding the trend for big bucks) A scalper/momentum could go for 2.5R or 3R
WEEKLY GOAL : 10R
PS: Daily Loss and Goal are calculated INCLUDING Commissions

When I will  be  +10R for 2 weeks in a row, I will then up my ''R'' to 50$ instead of 30$ and so on my boy so stop thinking 1% a day is not high enough becasue it is only 50$, when this 1% be equal to 250$ instead of 50$. Thats some serious money.
 

NOW

My question to you is what is YOUR bread and butter pattern, where is YOUR edge in the market !?

A) Do you prefer to ride the trend or take reversals ?

B) Are you more of a
***Scalper ( in and out in seconds )
***Momentum trader ( couple minutes )
***Longer Term  ?

C) What pattern do you like the most, fits your personnality the most ? 

Stick to it, master it and inscrease ''R'' when you have concistency.

Feel free to email me @ [email protected] and Congratulations on your english, it is pretty good 

 

Since I started to work harder, I started to be luckier! 🙂

See you in chat Monady

[Mohamed Omar 0]

4 hours ago, Bibonow said:

To start off, I did not see the word ''Journal'' in your initial post and I think this is where the problem is. Here is a list of things you can watch IF you have been journaling your trades : 

1) Your stop loss : where are they situated ? in air ? on feeling ? on a technical indicator ? a price level? new 5 minutes high or low ? It needs to be somewhere for a reason

2) Your entry: Do you anticipate or enter when lvl breaks? On moving average ? Important lvl of Support and resistance ? 

3) Your Sizing according to stop : Do you stop out BEFORE your actual real stop ? 

4) Your trade management wich include the way you scale out. Wich can make or break your overall profit and Risk : reward

5) The stocks you decide to trade,   Whats the float, did it gap up or down more than x% ?

6) What patterns are you trading ? Are you going with your mood, experiencing, or do you have ONE OR TWO pattern that you are trying to master

7) are you revenge trading ? Are you chasing ? are you averaging down ? 

8 )  Whats your Win Rate % ? 

9) What is your average winners $ ?

10) What is your average losers $ ?

11) Do you cut your losses ?

If you Risk 1% per trade, aiming for 2:1 Risk:Reward, and your Daily Profit target is 1% , it doesn't make sens, your target should then be 2%  daily AT LEAST

Here is what I came up with : I calculate everything in ''R''  wich is What I risk per trade in $  (mine is 30$ for now with a 3.5K account) lets say 1% then

RISK PER TRADE : 1R
MAX DAILY LOSS: 2.5R  ( Why not a round number ? Because sometime trade is just no going anywhere and I get out without it going to my stop)
DAILY GOAL : 4R ( To me it is not to high because of my style of trading wich is more riding the trend for big bucks) A scalper/momentum could go for 2.5R or 3R
WEEKLY GOAL : 10R
PS: Daily Loss and Goal are calculated INCLUDING Commissions

When I will  be  +10R for 2 weeks in a row, I will then up my ''R'' to 50$ instead of 30$ and so on my boy so stop thinking 1% a day is not high enough becasue it is only 50$, when this 1% be equal to 250$ instead of 50$. Thats some serious money.
 

NOW

My question to you is what is YOUR bread and butter pattern, where is YOUR edge in the market !?

A) Do you prefer to ride the trend or take reversals ?

B) Are you more of a
***Scalper ( in and out in seconds )
***Momentum trader ( couple minutes )
***Longer Term  ?

C) What pattern do you like the most, fits your personnality the most ? 

Stick to it, master it and inscrease ''R'' when you have concistency.

Feel free to email me @ [email protected] and Congratulations on your english, it is pretty good 

 

Since I started to work harder, I started to be luckier! 🙂

See you in chat Monady

Hi Bibo, 

Thanks for your response.

I do have a Journal. I will ask myself all of these questions when I look on my journal on the week end. 

Now I am changing to :
Account 5000$
risk/trade : 1% (1R = 50$)
daily goal : 2% or more
Max loss : 2 % (2R= 100$)

I found that when the profit target is high, I overtrade and revenge trade a lot.
So this way I will have 2 max losses and stop trading or 1 good winner and I stop trading. I like it that way because If my daily Goal is more than 2%, I have to take another trade after a big win(2%), and if I lose I ALWAYS want to make my money back so I end up losing more.

I try to not take partials and wait for my setup to complete, if I feel that the stock will reverse but I'm not sure I will take half of my position at 1:1 risk reward and I put a stop to b-e.

Sometimes when the stock is going against me I exit my position before my stop loss to minimize the loss, but mostly I wait for it to hit my stop.

Now to answer your questions:

A) ride trends
B) Momentum trader
C) I prefer to short stocks, my 2 best strategies are ORB down and Double Bottom, the 3rd one is reversal to VWAP IF the stock is looking week in the premarket and on the daily chart.

Ok I will email you if I have any question, and thank you 🙂

See you tomorrow in the Chat.
 

[Skye 28]

Happy if it helps, Mohamed.

[nmarnson 8]

I would have someone who is profitable look over your trades. Following risk and stop rules won't help you if your entries are wrong. Have someone look at your entries, it may shed some light. I'd be happy to look over some of your trades if you like. 

[Mohamed Omar 0]

12 hours ago, nmarnson said:

I would have someone who is profitable look over your trades. Following risk and stop rules won't help you if your entries are wrong. Have someone look at your entries, it may shed some light. I'd be happy to look over some of your trades if you like. 

OK I would like that, the only thing is that my journal don't have a picture of my trade , I only track, the stock, long or short,  entries , stops, target, exits and R multiple.
I think to have you look over my trades, I need to take a screen shot of my chart and put it in excel with my journal.
Do you know how to do that?

Thank you 🙂 

[nmarnson 8]

8 minutes ago, Mohamed Omar said:

OK I would like that, the only thing is that my journal don't have a picture of my trade , I only track, the stock, long or short,  entries , stops, target, exits and R multiple.
I think to have you look over my trades, I need to take a screen shot of my chart and put it in excel with my journal.
Do you know how to do that?

Thank you 🙂 

I don't know how to do that, but you can save your screenshots in a folder, and send me some. Email me at [email protected] once you have 10 or 20 trades. 

 

You can also make a new post on the forum and put up some screenshots, so everyone can give their advice. 

[Skye 28]

You NEED to have the charts in your journal! On your keyboard should be a key to take a screen shot. It should say "PrtScn" or something like that. You should be able to save to the clipboard & then paste into Excel. Or you can save it and then insert image. I do mine in Writer (LibreOffice version of Word) and after I paste I can right-click and crop to the chart because the screenshot shows all three monitors.

Edited December 13, 2018 by Skye

[Mohamed Omar 0]

16 minutes ago, nmarnson said:

I don't know how to do that, but you can save your screenshots in a folder, and send me some. Email me at [email protected] once you have 10 or 20 trades. 

 

You can also make a new post on the forum and put up some screenshots, so everyone can give their advice. 

Ok I will do that. Thank you 🙂