EURNZD-Supply & Demand-May 2018

[Zack Zarr 5]

EURNZD-Supply & Demand- From May 1, 2018

 

Status: Partial Open

 

Profit: >2380 pips

 

This trade was opened based on the Supply and Demand analysis which I explained in a previous post as well as my book. Starting end of April and into May, I noticed a reaction to a monthly and weekly (inside monthly) supply zone on the EURNZD. It coincided with the beginning of weakness in EUR and almost all other currencies against the USD. The breakdown of the momentum line was also another reason for me to believe there is a potential for some downward movement. The three time frame analysis below show what I noticed and how I analyzed it.

 

 

If you notice, upon the first touch of the SZ, I opened a short trade. There is never a guaranteed method for when to open a trade. Many times, the trade cal and will go against you. But remember, it does not matter if it is against your trade. We as retail traders do not have any impact. The more important point is to realize that in its best case scenario, we are in a game of probabilities. If I see high probability for a movement in price, I will trade based on it until that probability become reality.

 

As you can see in the snapshot below, I was "under the water" in almost all these trades before they became profitable. When you trade based on monthly and weekly time frames, you simply remove the "emotion" variable from the equation. As I often say, THERE IS NO EMOTION IN A WEEKLY AND MONTHLY CHART. All the trades except for the first short were opened when the price was running against the direction of my prediction. But I simply cannot ignore the probability of the price moving down from a monthly zone. If you have read my book, you know where my stoploss would be. and you can imagine why you don't see any stoploss in my chart.

 

 

 

 

As you see on the analysis of my chart, the first target is almost hit, which is why I will close one or two of these trades. However, I would never close a trade if the setup has not fully completed. It is not relevant how many pips have been gained over a trade. The setup must be completed which is why I am still looking for further down move on this pair.

 

I will update as the case evolves over time.

 

Zack