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GoldWTcal

The realistic and average win rates

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Good day, 

In Andrew's two books about day trading ( the beginner's and the advanced techniques one ), about 8-10 strategies are mentioned. 

A question is, ( which is not mentioned in the books ), what are the expected and / or realistic win rates for these strategies? I mean if Andrew himself performs the trades with the strategies designed in the books,

what win rates can be achieved?  

By win rate, I mean, lets say, if you take 100 trades with a given strategy ( a set up ) , if you have 50 win trades, then the win rate would be 50%.

As a buyer of these two books, will appreciate the answer to the above question.

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Hello, 

Trading is all about  process and consistency and money follows once you focus on the process. Saying that you must test these strategies and find out for yourself. Andrew is a momentum trader, you may be also a momentum trader but may be you are not. Strategies work for him because he has traded them for years with a positive outcome. He has high win rate because he has developed the skills, the price action understanding and recognizing his edge, acts  without hesitation and executes his plan. They have high win rate for him and he trades them every day in the room. 

So the strategy is just an edge on the market, it is nothing else than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over the other. You must test it yourself as we have different personalities and see the market in different way. That means you must trade one strategy for a couple of months and collect data, and see which one works for you. This is where you develop your trading skills and find your edge. Your results with each strategy will show you which of them you are good at and which are not for you. From there you take those which work for you and continue to perfect them. 

A win rate alone doesn't mean you will make money. You must track pay off ratio ( av. winners / av. losers) too. A 50% win rate with 1 R pay off ratio = Breakeven. You will be losing money below 1R and make 20% profit if your win rate is 60%. You may have 30% win rate but your pay off ratio is 3R, you will make 30% profits in this case. Trading is a number game and strategy is one of the variables, and you must test it for an extensive period, a 100 trades will not tell you much because market goes through different conditions and sometime your edge is not presented, so you sit on your hands in these days and preserve your capital. Or you are not seeing the market properly for different reasons at this time and you must find it for yourself what is the problem and adjust it. That's why tracking all your trades, journaling them are important and part of the process.  

So if you are starting just now, pick up one strategy which clicks with you and trade it for 3-4 months, track your trades, take screenshots and review them later and the results will slowly start to emerge. This will be your results with the strategy. 

 

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Thank you, Angela and Peter. Will review the comments and I may have further questions.

Appreciated. 

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