jeremyjohnolson 19 Posted August 13, 2021 I haven't been around too long, but I have been here long enough to see several instances of buy the rumor sell the news play out in real life, so I know it is a valid concept that truly happens. I think most people know what I mean when I say that, but just in case some don't what I mean is, for example, a stock is about to have earnings release or some other event happen and there is anticipation leading up to that event that it might be really good, so people buy the stock and run it up leading up to the event. Then the event happens and unless it even far surpasses the best and highest expectations, often times it will sell off after the event happens. So my question is, does this same thing happen when the good news event is the possible passage of a piece of legislation? Does anyone know? Specifically, I am looking at the transportation bill and I have noticed that my company's stock ($KNX) in which I have stock options I can exercise (trying to decide best time to exercise) tends to go up whenever there is positive news that the transportation bill might pass, and pulls back a bit when it is looking less likely to pass. So my question is, is this a buy the rumor sell the news kind of thing where after it finally does pass, the stock might sell off some? Or is this different? I think it might be different because for events such as earnings, there are so many unknowns whereas with the transportation bill, at this point, there are not a whole lot of unknowns other than will the House pass it or not and then it finally get signed by the President. So it seems in this case, once it actually gets signed, the stock should go up because now it is known that roads and bridges will be improved thus helping the transportation industry to operate more efficiently. Right now it's trading higher only on the hopes that it might pass, so it seems once it is known and it is signed into law, we should see a pop, any thoughts? If we see a pop, then I want to wait until after it is signed to exercise my options (assuming it gets passed). If this is a buy the rumor sell the news phenomenon, then I should exercise now before it passes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Anthony 2 Posted August 14, 2021 Hey Jeremy, can I ask what your current strategy for swing trading has been? I haven't delved much into fundamental analysis. So I am not the person to ask. Do you use technical analysis much when swing trading? If it were me I would see what see if the indicators fitted in with my overall strategy. If they weren't I would probably try paper trading it to see I could still make a buck off it Don't feel pressured to take the trade, there will always be another opportunity around the corner. Last year I missed out on bitcoin and oil, so unfortunately I'm not writing this from a New York penthouse. Glad to still see you around, isn't there a statistic that 90% of traders have gone bust by this point? We must be pretty good Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jeremyjohnolson 19 Posted August 14, 2021 Haha, thanks Anthony! I haven’t been swing trading, just day trading. I am asking about this though because I was granted stock options of $KNX at work, as an employee, it was compensation they gave me because I am a Tax Director at Knight-Swift Transportation and I am trying to decide when to execute those options. I posted it here in the swing trading section because I feel like it is more of a swing trade type question. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
