Thunder dome

[Michael Sanchez 53]

10 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

Stock: NIO

Result: -1R loss

Strategy: ABCD

Long/Short: Long

Why did you take the trade?: NIO looked really strong and made a great open. I waited for a pull back and then after seeing it hold 9EMA on the 1 min took an entry with a stop back below the 9EMA.

What happened next?: The price fell and I was stopped out. NIO rolled over from here and sold off heavily along with the rest of the market.

How did you feel after taking the trade?: Quite calm, but still with this feeling that I really suck at ABCD patterns. There is a big wick right before my entry - should that resistance have put me off? I'm interested if others can see reasons to not take this trade that I didn't see at the time. 

What did you do well?:  I can't think of much. Used a stop, set enough room for it to work. 

What can you improve on?: ABCD patterns in-totum.

I do not think that I would have taken this trade simply due to the fact that it was too extended from the 5min 9ema. If i am not mistaken the 9ema on the 5min chart was around 40.19 which would have put me off.  Most if not all of my winning ABCD patterns have occured when the 5min 9ema is relatively close to my entry. Plus it acts as more support in my opinion. 

[Michael Sanchez 53]

10 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

This is something I want to experiment with. Right now I have 1 min, 5 min, 15 min and daily on a 2x2 grid. They all play a part, but starting to wonder if I should have 1, 2 and 5 full size then half space for the less-commonly useful daily and 15 min.

The 2min chart is extremely helpful. Sometimes great ABCD patterns occur in that time frame and its odd because the pattern is not recognizable on the 1 or 5 min chart. I definitely recommend it. 

[Michael Sanchez 53]

[Adam Lewis 64]

I was watching ATH for short opportunities, 10% up PM but on no catalyst and low volume, looked overbought to me. My first short came after it held the 9EMA, only to then not hold the 9EMA and stop me out -1R. Seeing the three tops on the 1 min chart, resistance, the SPY also taking a drop and a break back below the 9EMA I went back in and made 1.6R back. Net 0.6R. 

 

[Michael Sanchez 53]

4 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

I was watching ATH for short opportunities, 10% up PM but on no catalyst and low volume, looked overbought to me. My first short came after it held the 9EMA, only to then not hold the 9EMA and stop me out -1R. Seeing the three tops on the 1 min chart, resistance, the SPY also taking a drop and a break back below the 9EMA I went back in and made 1.6R back. Net 0.6R. 

 

Great trade man!!! I liked how you recognized when the trade was all out of steam and got out at the perfect moment. This trade was also resilient. I liked how you got back into the trade and trusted your setup!

[MattfromNZ 55]

On 3/5/2021 at 1:43 PM, Michael Sanchez said:

OXY: I don't have anything to say specifically about your 1st trade, but the pattern on OXY looks like a false VWAP breakout. I don't know a lot about these, but I saw this strategy in Andrew's advanced daytrading book, and this looks like a textbook example: You would enter to go long after it crossed back above VWAP.

NCLH trade: Just wondering what strategy you are trying to implement here?

AAL: Love it!

[MattfromNZ 55]

18 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

I was watching ATH for short opportunities, 10% up PM but on no catalyst and low volume, looked overbought to me. My first short came after it held the 9EMA, only to then not hold the 9EMA and stop me out -1R. Seeing the three tops on the 1 min chart, resistance, the SPY also taking a drop and a break back below the 9EMA I went back in and made 1.6R back. Net 0.6R. 

 

Solid, nice work getting back in there

[MattfromNZ 55]

I traded until 1pm EST today and had my "greenest" day ever: 8 trades, no losses. NIO is something I don't usually trade, but it was moving pretty well today. The 3rd trade I felt was the most risky and not really part of my playbook, and to be completely honest I was "competing" with some others in the chat room who were talking about taking it short lol.

I traded AMD which I don't know if i've ever traded before. It has a nice steady price action which I liked. It had a very non-threatning open so I tried 2 entries for 5min ORBS. The 2nd one might have worked with an earlier entry and tighter stoploss.

Finally I had a lovely VWAP reversal on SPCE. I am liking the VWAP reversal, which is basically a failed lightning bolt that has a double bottom.

[MattfromNZ 55]

Today was similar to yesterday, I made profit on my first 2 trades, and then slowly lost it all over the rest of the morning! Good day for learnings though. I was up almost 5R on my 1st two trades, both were 5min ORBs. I will share the one on RBLX because I think it is more interesting:

I made 2 VWAP reversal trades today, AAL was a winner, although not a big winner:

And my second one was a loser, and I just had to re-enter and turn it into a double loser didn't I?!

Finally I will post a losing ABCD trade. This trade broke my rules in many ways. Too add insult to injury, the price rocketed past my stoploss giving me a 1.5R loss on this one:

[Roberto 10]

I'm gonna have to start a forum log like this too. Seems useful for a number of reasons. Only thing I see here was the CAN trades were cutting across the short EMAs, although I know they usually don't look so spread apart when you take the trade.  

[Adam Lewis 64]

3 hours ago, MattfromNZ said:

AAL was a winner, although not a big winner

Good looking trade and similar to Peter's 'W' VWAP reversal pattern. Shame about the R:R being a bit broad, deserved more than 1R but you squeezed what you could out of it. 

3 hours ago, MattfromNZ said:

This trade broke my rules in many ways

I can see it's extended from the 9 on a 5 min chart. Was this rule also around the previous candles being top-wicky and showing failed attempts to break? The consolidation on the 1 min chart was a little erratic as well I guess.

3 hours ago, MattfromNZ said:

I made profit on my first 2 trades

5 min ORB is outstanding! Great work 🙂 RBLX didn't have shares for short for me, I guess as it's only just IPO'd. I want to figure out a 5 min ORB a bit more, are you still keeping stats on behaviour re: VWAP of 5 min ORBs?

On 3/6/2021 at 3:43 AM, Michael Sanchez said:

 

Great trade! What a shame you got out of the way but I feel your pain, it's agonising watching every tick. Once you're in a trade, what do you do? Do you keep watching the chart or leave it to do it's thing a while? I sometimes force myself to look elsewhere and only track what's happening by watching the P/L, this helps me stay in trades longer. Exiting trades early is a major issue for me, like you I get freaked out the second the thing wobbles. 

2 hours ago, Roberto said:

I'm gonna have to start a forum log like this too.

Feel free to join in here!! 🙂 

[Adam Lewis 64]

NIO, NIO, NIO...

Pre-market it gapped up 6%. My thesis was on the open it would pull back as profit taking took place, and then the dip would be bought giving me opportunities both short and then long. As such I was ready for either a fallen angel in the first minute or an ORB down and then buying the bottom. I had two support levels marked from PM / daily levels. 

It took 3 minutes for the volume to arrive. I took a 1 min ORB down before it did (not the best decision) and then a 3 min ORB down. Got out of the way early on both, terrified of the volume dumping and sending it to the moon. I then bought the bottom after seeing it hold the levels I'd set and then look like setting a new 1 min high, but setting my stop below the low of the previous candle left very little wiggle room. It wiggled just a fraction too much and I was stopped out by just a few cents.

This week I am trying to be more experimental with my trading. Last week I wouldn't have gone near this trade, but this week I'm trying to be more active on the open, there is volatility and volume and I want to learn to use it. That is, of course, much easier said than done.

[MattfromNZ 55]

4 hours ago, Roberto said:

I'm gonna have to start a forum log like this too. Seems useful for a number of reasons. Only thing I see here was the CAN trades were cutting across the short EMAs, although I know they usually don't look so spread apart when you take the trade.  

Like Adam said, feel free to join in. As for my CAN trade (ignore the second entry cause it was stupid), it's was a reversal trade which means you must cross the short EMAs at some stage. Having a look at back my previous successful VWAP reversal trades I can see that most of my entries came after crossing the 9ema. This is not something I've taken notice of before, my entry criteria is purely based around the behavior around VWAP. Thanks for pointing this out, I'm still fairly new to this strategy, I will start recording this as part of my trade log for this strategy to see if this is important or not.

[MattfromNZ 55]

2 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

Good looking trade and similar to Peter's 'W' VWAP reversal pattern. Shame about the R:R being a bit broad, deserved more than 1R but you squeezed what you could out of it. 

Thanks, that's cause it IS Peter's VWAP reversal strategy! I'm liking it so far, although i've only logged 7 trades, I am averaging 0.5R profit per trade.

2 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

I can see it's extended from the 9 on a 5 min chart. Was this rule also around the previous candles being top-wicky and showing failed attempts to break? The consolidation on the 1 min chart was a little erratic as well I guess.

Yes, extended from the 9ema on the 5, but also super extended in general, and there were no strong indications of continuation, you even have a reverse ABCD pattern on the 1min, and 2 bearish 5min candles.

2 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

5 min ORB is outstanding! Great work 🙂 RBLX didn't have shares for short for me, I guess as it's only just IPO'd. I want to figure out a 5 min ORB a bit more, are you still keeping stats on behaviour re: VWAP of 5 min ORBs?

Thank you, I did feel good about it. This is a pattern that I see from time to time that seems to have a high chance of success: The price opens with a small consolidation range below VWAP, and then breaks out from there. You enter after crossing VWAP if it is close to VWAP, but I have also seen it work when it's been well below VWAP and you enter at the break before it crosses.

So I have still been collecting data for my 5min ORBs, but not every single day, just when I feel up to it, and I only look at 10 stocks per day. It has been a great exercise and I have also started taking screenshots of all the patterns and filing them into categories. My main thoughts so far about 5min ORBs are as follows:

- To have the best reliability they should be combined with another pattern or strategy: the open formations that have an ABCD pattern on either the 1min or 5min, or an engulfing pattern on the 5min are the most successful.

- There are some great setups that are quite reliable without needing another pattern, but you don't see them as often. Today's pattern was an example.

- I think that I will need to take more notice of Volume and Tickers to be able to trade more setups.

[MattfromNZ 55]

2 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

NIO, NIO, NIO...

Wow that's crazy that it went 3mins with almost no volume!

I like that you are experimenting like this, you are definitely putting yourself in a position to learn in ways that (at least for now) I am not.

Eventually I would like to do that: maybe spend the 1st 10mins of the day going crazy on the open, after that it's more down to business. For now though I am super concentrated watching for what the best stocks will be for potential 5min ORBs.