Thunder dome

[Adam Lewis 64]

Stock: SNAP

Result: +2.4R profit

Strategy: ABCD (sort of...)

Long/Short: Short

Entry: 59.75

Risk: 15c

S/L: A break back above 9EMA on the 1-min chart

Why did you take the trade?: SNAP was down trending and in the first four minutes opened very weak. I saw it attempt twice to recover and break and hold above the 9EMA, failing both times. But what really made me enter this position was the volume on the green candle: very low green volume made me sense there was no enthusiasm from buyers at this point. Hence the second time the stock rejected the 9EMA I entered looking for a flush. I've labeled this an ABCD trade although I'm not sure it counts as one. I'm not sure what strategy this fits into actually. I just had good reasons for going in.

What happened next?: It worked out 🙂 There was a sharp move to the downside, especially after the price broke below the 59.60 level. 

How did you feel after taking the trade?: Quite pleased. I knew what I was looking for, I had a thesis, it worked out.

What did you do well?:  Used volume to support my thesis. Seeing the lack of buying enthusiasm on that green candle convinced me this was weak. If there were buyers lining up then that was the moment this stock bolted up. It didn't, so I was comfortable going short.

What can you improve on?: I still feel like I'm taking partials too quickly. My first partial is usually a 50% partial. This is something I think I can do better.

 

[MattfromNZ 55]

12 minutes ago, Adam Lewis said:

Great work today Matt, you've got some really good, disciplined trading going on here. I know you're working hard to log your trades. Are you also tracking the time of day that your trades happen, and the length of time you're in the position? From what I see some of your best trading seems to happen later in the day, after the open, and your positions remain in place for some time. We've spoken before about how the trading day seems to move through phases. I wonder if your data will expose a preference for a later, more stable phase?

Thanks man. I log the time I enter trades, but I was actually thinking about it today, I don't log the time I exit and that might be an interesting statistic. My trades seem to come in ebbs in flows. Yesterday my 2 main winning trades were both 5min ORBS, but yeah I guess I was in them for a bit, they weren't 1min wonders that's for sure! I do have the luxury to sit and wait at the computer as long as I want for good setups to come, and that by itself leads to a later bias I think. 

[MattfromNZ 55]

12 minutes ago, Adam Lewis said:

Stock: SNAP

Result: +2.4R profit

Strategy: ABCD (sort of...)

Long/Short: Short

Entry: 59.75

Risk: 15c

S/L: A break back above 9EMA on the 1-min chart

Why did you take the trade?: SNAP was down trending and in the first four minutes opened very weak. I saw it attempt twice to recover and break and hold above the 9EMA, failing both times. But what really made me enter this position was the volume on the green candle: very low green volume made me sense there was no enthusiasm from buyers at this point. Hence the second time the stock rejected the 9EMA I entered looking for a flush. I've labeled this an ABCD trade although I'm not sure it counts as one. I'm not sure what strategy this fits into actually. I just had good reasons for going in.

What happened next?: It worked out 🙂 There was a sharp move to the downside, especially after the price broke below the 59.60 level. 

How did you feel after taking the trade?: Quite pleased. I knew what I was looking for, I had a thesis, it worked out.

What did you do well?:  Used volume to support my thesis. Seeing the lack of buying enthusiasm on that green candle convinced me this was weak. If there were buyers lining up then that was the moment this stock bolted up. It didn't, so I was comfortable going short.

What can you improve on?: I still feel like I'm taking partials too quickly. My first partial is usually a 50% partial. This is something I think I can do better.

 

Although this is a great trade, I think calling this an ABCD is a bit of a reach. It is however a great 5min ORB setup: Crosses the VWAP, breaks down, pulls back to the VWAP but does not cross it, continues to break down. Very nice. Good observation with the volume, I got to start paying more attention to this.

[Adam Lewis 64]

4 minutes ago, MattfromNZ said:

I think calling this an ABCD is a bit of a reach. It is however a great 5min ORB setup: Crosses the VWAP, breaks down, pulls back to the VWAP but does not cross it, continues to break down

I agree completely and I've labeled it such only reluctantly. I'm not even sure solid ABCDs form in the first 5 minutes? I did see the ORB set up but I didn't enter in the right place for an ORB, and I wasn't thinking 'here's an ORB' when I went into this so I didn't try to claim it was one. It was trending down, held below resistance levels, showed a lack of buying enthusiasm... Hence my entry. I just had a 'sense' this was weak and was going to flush. Not sure if it's a good thing to rely on something so intangible when I'm still at such an early stage in my career!

[Michael Sanchez 53]

23 hours ago, Adam Lewis said:

Stock: SNAP

Result: +2.4R profit

Strategy: ABCD (sort of...)

Long/Short: Short

Entry: 59.75

Risk: 15c

S/L: A break back above 9EMA on the 1-min chart

Why did you take the trade?: SNAP was down trending and in the first four minutes opened very weak. I saw it attempt twice to recover and break and hold above the 9EMA, failing both times. But what really made me enter this position was the volume on the green candle: very low green volume made me sense there was no enthusiasm from buyers at this point. Hence the second time the stock rejected the 9EMA I entered looking for a flush. I've labeled this an ABCD trade although I'm not sure it counts as one. I'm not sure what strategy this fits into actually. I just had good reasons for going in.

What happened next?: It worked out 🙂 There was a sharp move to the downside, especially after the price broke below the 59.60 level. 

How did you feel after taking the trade?: Quite pleased. I knew what I was looking for, I had a thesis, it worked out.

What did you do well?:  Used volume to support my thesis. Seeing the lack of buying enthusiasm on that green candle convinced me this was weak. If there were buyers lining up then that was the moment this stock bolted up. It didn't, so I was comfortable going short.

What can you improve on?: I still feel like I'm taking partials too quickly. My first partial is usually a 50% partial. This is something I think I can do better.

 

BEAST MODE!!!!! Great trade Adam!! Great entry and partials. I like how you used volume to support your thesis. In fact, it was one of the first things that I noticed with this trade. Awsome, I also like your reasoning. You were not sure about the strategy, but you were confident that the stock would breakout to the short side. Great stuff!!!!

[Michael Sanchez 53]

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[MattfromNZ 55]

On 2/3/2021 at 6:56 PM, Adam Lewis said:

I just had a 'sense' this was weak and was going to flush. Not sure if it's a good thing to rely on something so intangible when I'm still at such an early stage in my career!

I want aim to categorize my trades in ways that will give me meaningful statistics. So for example you could keep track of your trades that you make on "sense" to see if over the long term it works for you. To me, relying on "sense" seems like a risky idea because it could lead down the path of trading on impulse (instead of following rules). "Sense" is impossible to measure, hard to adjust and quite likely to be highly affected by your emotional state. My personal goal is to become a good trader through rules, strategies and discipline first, and then any "sense" that I may have can develop from there. I can't personally separate trades made on "sense" with trades made on impulse or "hopes". Everyone is different and maybe you can. I guess if you don't try you won't know.

[MattfromNZ 55]

On 2/4/2021 at 5:58 PM, Michael Sanchez said:

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The ORB pattern for NIO isn't terrible, It crosses VWAP, pulls back to VWAP, starts to drop lower...I'm assuming you took it short? I would not have entered this trade, but only based on the analytics I've been doing lately: Entries after 2 VWAP crosses are generally a bad idea. You also have quite a bit of choppiness/candle overlap around the VWAP which is not ideal when your wanting directional price action. Take a look at my 5min ORB strategy on my shared folder (still very much a work in progress). 

EBAY trade was good, Nice pattern. The first time you got stopped out just seems unlucky. The second time I think your stoploss was too tight. The price action for EBAY just seems a little bit deceptive. I've never looked at it before, I wonder how it normally trades?

[Michael Sanchez 53]

On 2/5/2021 at 10:10 PM, MattfromNZ said:

The ORB pattern for NIO isn't terrible, It crosses VWAP, pulls back to VWAP, starts to drop lower...I'm assuming you took it short? I would not have entered this trade, but only based on the analytics I've been doing lately: Entries after 2 VWAP crosses are generally a bad idea. You also have quite a bit of choppiness/candle overlap around the VWAP which is not ideal when your wanting directional price action. Take a look at my 5min ORB strategy on my shared folder (still very much a work in progress). 

EBAY trade was good, Nice pattern. The first time you got stopped out just seems unlucky. The second time I think your stoploss was too tight. The price action for EBAY just seems a little bit deceptive. I've never looked at it before, I wonder how it normally trades?

Good idea!! I definitely need to look over your notes again. Especially for ORBs!

[Michael Sanchez 53]

[MattfromNZ 55]

1 hour ago, Michael Sanchez said:

I can see what you were thinking with PLTR: it crossed the VWAP, and then rejected it, looking like it might go lower. A reason to be hesitant about entry for me would have been the clear level of support that you can see around the open. Once the price made a double bottom, this was a bad sign for a short position and you could have exited earlier.

You nailed your RIOT trade man, look at the volume increase once it starts to go up, very nice.

Edited February 8, 2021 by MattfromNZ
word change

[Michael Sanchez 53]

15 minutes ago, MattfromNZ said:

I can see what you were thinking with PLTR: it crossed the VWAP, and then rejected it, looking like it might go lower. A reason to be hesitant about entry for me would have been the clear level of support that you can see around the open. Once the price made a double bottom, this was a bad sign for a short position and you could have exited earlier.

You nailed your RIOT trade man, look at the volume increase once it starts to go up, very nice.

Thank you man,, the first comment you stated was on point. I should have paid way more attention to my levels. I also did not notice the double bottom until i got out of the trade. Just goes to show that I needed to pay more attention to the price action and the stock in general. THANKS!!!

[MattfromNZ 55]

My two trades for the morning.  Now that all the craziness is over I got back into some meme stocks! Although neither were big winners, I am happy with both trades. GME Break even, and BB +0.5R.

[Michael Sanchez 53]

1 hour ago, MattfromNZ said:

My two trades for the morning.  Now that all the craziness is over I got back into some meme stocks! Although neither were big winners, I am happy with both trades. GME Break even, and BB +0.5R.

Great job getting out early on the first trade!!! I need to improve that skill. On BB, you did a great job taking that partial and getting out at break even. A 25% partial is not bad at all!!

[MattfromNZ 55]

I will post my two winning trades for the day as they are more interesting than my losing one. First is ABCD on AMC with a gain of about 2R (difficult to know exactly because my fixed risk keys dont work with SSR's.

And next was APHA for another ABCD for 2.5R's. This one would have been a nice one to be watching through until almost midday if I didn't have to work: