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Peter

Peter journal: First pullback+lightning bolt+ABCD

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2062544655_week2.thumb.JPG.ad8599daabedb18d69eec521dd477a89.JPG

 

 

Overall statistics after week 47/2020-1/2021:   

33 trading days: +26.5R     average day +0.80R                  

67 trades: 33 winners , 34 losers   =  win rate  49%

average trade profit: +0.39R

winners together: +62.3R , losers together: -35.7R , profit factor: 1.7

risk level 2: 2% of the next risk level and  26% of the Main Goal +100R.

 

Weekly statistics 2020:

week 47 -1.6R   ( 2 days  9 trades 3W/6L 33% W/R Average trade -0.17R, average day -0.8R )               

week 48 +6.5R ( 5 days 13 trades 6W/7L 46%W/R, average trade +0.5R, average day +1,3R ) 

week 49 +3.8R ( 5 days 11 trades 5W/6L 45%W/R average trade +0.34R,  average day +0,8R  

week 50 +5.3R (5 days 8 trades 5W/3L  62% W/R average trade +0,66R average day +1,06R )

week 51  +4.5R ( 5 days 8 trades 5 W/3L 62% W/R average trade +0.56R average day +0.95R )

week 52 -4R ( 2 days 4 trades 4 losers 0% W/R average trade -1R average day -2R )

week 53 no trades

week 1/2021 +3.6R (5 days 8 trades 5W/3L 62% W/R average trade +0.45R average day +0.72R

week 2 +8.5R (5 days 6 trades 4W/2L 66% W/R average trade +1.41R average day +1.7R )

 

Monthly statistics:

November 2020 stat: +3.9R. 8 tr. days average day +0.49R, 26 trades 10W/16L, Win rate 39%,  av. trade +0.15R

December 2020 stat: +10.6R 15 tr. days average day +0.71R, 28 trades 14W/14L, win rate 50% av. trade +0.37R

 

My main goal to learn my setup and show myself that i have edge in the market. I need to  reach  +100R trading profits, this +100R shows (if I reach there) that I have clear edge in the market. It takes more than 3 months (full earnings cycle), superb if I reach there within 4-5 months. Maximum is 8 months to show profitability   ( +12.5R month average ). I start with 5 dollar risk and raise risk if I reach +25R  (risk level 1 is 5 dollar 0-25R, risk level 2 is 12 dollar 25-50R, risk level 3 is 25 dollar 50-75R, risk level 4 is 50 dollar 75-100R)

 

Minimum acceptable profitability:

average trade: more than +0.2R profit, superb would be +0.5R or more...

average month: more than +12.5R profit, superb would be +25R or more...

average week: more than +3R profit, superb would be +7R or more...

and I want to see win rate 50% or more (this shows that I take quality setups)

profit factor more than 1.3

Edited by Peter
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My general trading rules are:

DAS allows trade only after 9.40

2 losing trades is max loss per day.

+3R locks profit +2R and releases "free bonus trade" until loser.

I am risking 5 dollar per trade (1R) if I got +25R then I raise risk to next level, first 4 risk levels are: (5,12,25,50 dollar)

if I get -20R. from the top then its "game over".... level down and it can go till 0R no -R is allowed after i reach +20R.

 

Main goal is to to get +100R trading profits. If this is reached then I can make new goals but before that this is my main goal.

 

to watch stock I need to see:

catalyst:

daily breakout:

premarket gap:

rel. vol.

trading pattern:

entry:

management:

overall grade:

 

 

Raise risk i need to see:

1. average trade +0.2R or more... +0.5R would be superb ( after 100 trades i need to see +20R profit or more)

2. up days 3/1  75% or more 

3.  win % 50 or more

 

stock selling rules:

1. 20% 2/1

2. 20% 3/1

3. 20% 4/1

4.20% 50/1

5. 100% next mayor level

 

My long setup: gap up+ fresh news+ daily breakout +rel. vol. over 150% + long pattern

162291965_firstpullbacklongsetup.thumb.jpg.39e02dd37b8a3d9317db3ff7c9f37466.jpg

 

my short setup: gap down + fresh news + daily breakout + rel. vol. over 150% + short pattern

1814443798_firtstpullbackshortsetup.thumb.jpg.8ba3284b5afd5610b5a2a7257f27ed0f.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monday stat: 2 winners 2 losers +2R

1. trade  +2,9R 

trade1.thumb.jpg.ae92f55c6d7c8d638943e33f808807ca.jpg

 

2. trade -1R.

 

 

1058731268_trade2.thumb.jpg.f3970fdff00441059e22fadd57269a0b.jpg

3. trade +1R.

1849466273_trade3.thumb.jpg.05d4f37350a800c3ec44e1a55f48dff1.jpg

 

4. trade -1R.

 

 

1001517461_trade4.thumb.jpg.94881def9c826de05ff651133667c376.jpg

 

 

 

Edited by Peter

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tuesday stat: 5 trades 1 Winner 4 losers -3R maxloss, not my day....

trade 5 -1R

63896798_trade5.thumb.jpg.aae3b2bfeb4d2c9a48cf10f6e0128f82.jpg

trade 6  -1R

388300951_trade6.thumb.jpg.16b0c63cfb58e5a7624dfacaf1d4a3bd.jpg

 

trade 7 +1R

378822645_trade7.thumb.jpg.13bc69021611325d053761ae2573d0ee.jpg

 

trade 8 -1R

1468768754_trade8.thumb.jpg.ac9d28cdc509cb5bff572dc89de559fe.jpg

 

trade 9 -1R

2043106196_trade9.thumb.jpg.b2364156c1cb95ab116a75e3fe3315f4.jpg

Edited by Peter

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Thursday and Friday was travelling and was not able to trade.

first week results:

11 trades 5 winners 6 losers 

win rate 45%

winners together +8,8R

losers together -6.4R

net profit +2,4R

average day +0.8R

average winner +1,76R

average loser -1.1R

average trade +0.22R

up days/down days 2/1... 66% up days

winning streak 2 trades

losing streak 6 trades

 

 

 

Edited by Peter
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monday stat: 4 trades 4 losers -4R

trade 12 and 13 -2R

1939309533_trade12-13.thumb.jpg.88f9bb75100af4def7b2a678205c377a.jpg

 

trade 14 -1R

1811419487_trade14.thumb.jpg.a9525aca991d3d77471c422a86d2726a.jpg

 

trade 15 -1R

558666575_trade15.thumb.jpg.4f7f0e2183699c79520c0ac96e759be7.jpg5 -1R

 

 

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Problem found: if its weekend or 4 days not trading then after that i start gambling first two trades was not setup, third trade was bad setup i usually don t short strong stocks right away.

Need to be more careful Mondays. I put reminder myself to read trading plan before each Monday open.

Notice: if i had 1/1 all or nothing approach, then this first 15 trades would be +3R 9 winners 6 losers win rate 66% average trade +0.2R... need to see more data, i watch it again after 50 trades.

Edited by Peter

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Tuesday trades 3 trades 3 winners +7R:

trade 16 +4.1R

673322194_trade16.thumb.jpg.4110859815cc3d1f64525a763cd33145.jpg

 

trade 17 +2.2R

1592114088_trade17.thumb.jpg.f5544da411a95e22ef230094a3f97900.jpg

 

trade 18 +0,7R

2071497093_trade18.thumb.jpg.ed43473ab35f73e3321aa37df7dba2a4.jpg

Edited by Peter
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Wednesday results: 3 trades 3losers -3R

trade 19 -1R

797719249_trade19.thumb.jpg.bf6739e67cdae56a6da0b1aa0e64209d.jpg

 

trade 20 -1R

1273720068_trade20.thumb.jpg.df5d991bf5f726f28e64fa6a8e407bc0.jpg

 

trade 21 -1R

1935389382_trade21.thumb.jpg.40797362e7d181caa505828d8c4a9ade.jpg

 

Friday results 1 winner +2,5R

trade 22 +2,5R

500528695_trade22.thumb.jpg.2e32943aa59d73ff836c3cb90baa13b7.jpg

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first 22 trade results +4.9R:

9 winners 13 losers win rate 40% (its less that minimum what i need to see 50%)

up days 4, down days 3  (57% up days, its less than minimum what i want to see 75% but not much data yet)

average trade +0.22R (its ok, Slightly above minimum what i need to see 0.2R)

winning streak: 3, biggest win +4.1R

losing streak: 4, biggest loser -1.4R

 

I had 2 revenge trades, and 2 no setup gambling trades,if i can eliminate those then stats. is awesome ( 50% winrate, +0,55R average trade profit.)

1. I made change, and i cant trade same ticker after losing trade  more. I need to take break also, after loser 10 minutes. I put it in my rules. Lets see next 2 weeks

is stats. getting better...

 

Edited by Peter

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monday results 1 winner 3 losers -1R

trade 23 -1R

104934648_trade23.thumb.jpg.7fb73a7176456f47384666c3b20ad185.jpg

 

trade 24 -1R

964420539_trade24.thumb.jpg.fbf5f20208b010f337e53997f1b1b21b.jpg

trade 25 +2R

341423262_trade25.thumb.jpg.53149e7ec68b8e057c8e4faf3a8cb654.jpg

 

trade 26-1R

2045328132_trade26.thumb.jpg.7a4e739f2b3e5def65f1cf1851659c3a.jpg 

 

Edited by Peter

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NB: i Noticed that i take too much  trades, my winrate is too low, i make this change:

1. first i draw most significant move to chart

2. then i watch pullback to that move and only after that i can take trade ,but if i want to short strong stock then

i need to see double pattern: first double top and clear rejection and only after that strong move to vwap. (If strong stock make dbl bottom or higher ,low i cant short it if its below vwvap anyway.)

And if weak stock make opposite move i ćant go long.

 

traidingplan:

1. first i draw most significant move to the chart

2. then i wait pullback to that move, less than 50% of the first  move

3. if vwap holds at least 3 candles then if stock make new 1min. high/low then i buy or sell it. stop loss goes other side of vwap.

If i want to short strong stock or long weak stock i need to see doubleltop or doublebottom and only after that move throw vwap.

If strong stock makes dblbottom or higher low i cant short it i need to see double conformation. and weak stock i need to see dbl bottom

and after that clear move throw vwap i can go long only after this double conformation.

 

 

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tuesday 1.12.2020 results 3 trades 1 winner 2 losers 0R

trade 27 +2R

1676646792_trade27.thumb.jpg.46cdaf798d630c294c0e607358a5e9f9.jpg

 

trade 28 -1R

1944358438_trade28.thumb.jpg.512d5322985238f76076115a11a2da32.jpg

 

trade 29 -1R

1900542134_trade29.thumb.jpg.072f46fe9e5d44a2d585d21c75744b26.jpg

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I m selling my winners caotically  i created clear rules to hold winners longer:

stock selling rules:

1. I am raising stop to breakeven +1c after it reaches +2R ( to get "free trade")

2. I am raising stop after stock makes at least 3x1min. pullback, and after that new high/low to that pullback  -1c

3. if I have +3R then i raise stop to closed 5min. candle -1c and creating range order with target: next clear level on daily chart

4. if I have +5R then i raise stop to closed 1min. candle -1c (i raise stop only if 1min. candle goes my way. if its opposite candle I do not raise stop) and I still have target next clear level on daily chart.

Edited by Peter

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