Peter journal: First pullback+lightning bolt+ABCD

[Peter 12]

 

Overall statistics after first 100 trades and 52 trading days:   

52 trading days: +35.5R     average day +0.68R                  

100 trades: 51 winners , 49 losers   =  win rate  51%

average trade profit: +0.35R

average winner 1.65R

winners together: +84.3R , losers together: -48.8R , profit factor: 1.72

risk level 2: 40% of the next risk level and  35% of the Main Goal +100R.

 

Trade 1-100 statistics :

Trade 1-25     stat: +4.8R  , 10winners/15 losers 40%  win rate, +20.2/-15,4, profit factor 1.31 , average trade profit: +0.19R

Trade 26-50  stat: +12.6R , 15 winners/10 losers 60%  win rate, +23.6/-11 profit factor 2.1 , average trade profit: +0.5R

Trade 51-75   stat: +9.8R , 13 winners/12 losers 52%  win rate, +22.1/-12.3 profit factor 1.8 , average trade profit: +0.39R

Trade 76-100   stat: +8.3R , 13 winners/12 losers 52%  win rate, +18.4/-10.1 profit factor 1.8 , average trade profit: +0.33R

Trade 1-100   stat: +35.3R , 51 winners/49 losers 51%  win rate, +84.3/-48.8 profit factor 1.72 , average trade profit: +0.35R

 

 

 

 

My main goal to learn my setup and show myself that i have edge in the market. I need to  reach  +100R trading profits, this +100R shows (if I reach there) that I have clear edge in the market. It takes more than 3 months (full earnings cycle), superb if I reach there within 4-5 months. Maximum is 8 months to show profitability   ( +12.5R month average ). I start with 5 dollar risk and raise risk if I reach +25R  (risk level 1 is 5 dollar 0-25R, risk level 2 is 12 dollar 25-50R, risk level 3 is 25 dollar 50-75R, risk level 4 is 50 dollar 75-100R)

 

Minimum acceptable profitability:

average trade: more than +0.2R profit, superb would be +0.5R or more...

and I want to see win rate 50% or more (this shows that I take quality setups)

profit factor more than 1.5

Edited February 24, 2021 by Peter

[Peter 12]

My general trading rules are:

DAS allows trade only after 9.35

3 losing trades is max loss per day.

+3R locks profit +2R and releases "free bonus trade" until loser.

I am risking 5 dollar per trade (1R) if I got +25R then I raise risk to next level, first 4 risk levels are: (5,12,25,50 dollar)

if I get -20R. from the top then its "game over".... level down and it can go till 0R no -R is allowed after i reach +20R.

 

Main goal is to to get +100R trading profits. If this is reached then I can make new goals but before that this is my main goal.

 

to watch stock I need to see before trading:

1. fresh news

2. daily breakout

3.rel.vol over 150%

 

to trade this stock I need to see:

1. signal candle direction of the gap

2. pullback to 9ema or vwap

3. 60min. chart supporting the move

4. 5min. chart supporting the move

5.after pullback new 1min. high/low is long/short

 

my playbook short setup:

1. fresh news: AMD had earnings

2. AMD gapped down 4%

3. rel.vol was 400%

I put this candidate to monitor watchlist then i need to see:

1. Signal candle 

2.pullback to 9ema 

3. 60min. supporting the move

4. 5min. supporting the move

5. new 1min low after pullback is short

 

 

 

 

Raise risk i need to see:

1. average trade +0.2R or more... +0.5R would be superb ( after 100 trades i need to see +20R profit or more)

2.  win % 50 or more

 

stock selling rules:

NB: I cant sell stock with breakeven, before first partial, if it is right side of 9ema

2/1 35%

3/1 35% or next price level

4/1 35% or next price level

last 12.5% I let run and raise only stop loss to last 5min. pivot after new high/low

 

My long setup: gap up+ fresh news+ daily breakout +rel. vol. over 150% + long pattern

 

 

my short setup: gap down + fresh news + daily breakout + rel. vol. over 150% + short pattern

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monday stat: 2 winners 2 losers +2R

1. trade  +2,9R 

 

2. trade -1R.

 

 

3. trade +1R.

 

4. trade -1R.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 24, 2021 by Peter

[Peter 12]

tuesday stat: 5 trades 1 Winner 4 losers -3R maxloss, not my day....

trade 5 -1R

trade 6  -1R

 

trade 7 +1R

 

trade 8 -1R

 

trade 9 -1R

Edited November 17, 2020 by Peter

[Peter 12]

trade 10  +1,4R

 

trade 11 +2R

[Peter 12]

Thursday and Friday was travelling and was not able to trade.

first week results:

11 trades 5 winners 6 losers 

win rate 45%

winners together +8,8R

losers together -6.4R

net profit +2,4R

average day +0.8R

average winner +1,76R

average loser -1.1R

average trade +0.22R

up days/down days 2/1... 66% up days

winning streak 2 trades

losing streak 6 trades

 

 

 

Edited November 23, 2020 by Peter

[Peter 12]

monday stat: 4 trades 4 losers -4R

trade 12 and 13 -2R

 

trade 14 -1R

 

trade 15 -1R

5 -1R

 

 

[Peter 12]

Problem found: if its weekend or 4 days not trading then after that i start gambling first two trades was not setup, third trade was bad setup i usually don t short strong stocks right away.

Need to be more careful Mondays. I put reminder myself to read trading plan before each Monday open.

Notice: if i had 1/1 all or nothing approach, then this first 15 trades would be +3R 9 winners 6 losers win rate 66% average trade +0.2R... need to see more data, i watch it again after 50 trades.

Edited November 24, 2020 by Peter

[Peter 12]

Tuesday trades 3 trades 3 winners +7R:

trade 16 +4.1R

 

trade 17 +2.2R

 

trade 18 +0,7R

Edited November 24, 2020 by Peter

[Peter 12]

Wednesday results: 3 trades 3losers -3R

trade 19 -1R

 

trade 20 -1R

 

trade 21 -1R

 

Friday results 1 winner +2,5R

trade 22 +2,5R

[Peter 12]

first 22 trade results +4.9R:

9 winners 13 losers win rate 40% (its less that minimum what i need to see 50%)

up days 4, down days 3  (57% up days, its less than minimum what i want to see 75% but not much data yet)

average trade +0.22R (its ok, Slightly above minimum what i need to see 0.2R)

winning streak: 3, biggest win +4.1R

losing streak: 4, biggest loser -1.4R

 

I had 2 revenge trades, and 2 no setup gambling trades,if i can eliminate those then stats. is awesome ( 50% winrate, +0,55R average trade profit.)

1. I made change, and i cant trade same ticker after losing trade  more. I need to take break also, after loser 10 minutes. I put it in my rules. Lets see next 2 weeks

is stats. getting better...

 

Edited November 29, 2020 by Peter

[Peter 12]

monday results 1 winner 3 losers -1R

trade 23 -1R

 

trade 24 -1R

trade 25 +2R

 

trade 26-1R

 

 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Peter

[Peter 12]

NB: i Noticed that i take too much  trades, my winrate is too low, i make this change:

1. first i draw most significant move to chart

2. then i watch pullback to that move and only after that i can take trade ,but if i want to short strong stock then

i need to see double pattern: first double top and clear rejection and only after that strong move to vwap. (If strong stock make dbl bottom or higher ,low i cant short it if its below vwvap anyway.)

And if weak stock make opposite move i ćant go long.

 

traidingplan:

1. first i draw most significant move to the chart

2. then i wait pullback to that move, less than 50% of the first  move

3. if vwap holds at least 3 candles then if stock make new 1min. high/low then i buy or sell it. stop loss goes other side of vwap.

If i want to short strong stock or long weak stock i need to see doubleltop or doublebottom and only after that move throw vwap.

If strong stock makes dblbottom or higher low i cant short it i need to see double conformation. and weak stock i need to see dbl bottom

and after that clear move throw vwap i can go long only after this double conformation.

 

 

[Peter 12]

tuesday 1.12.2020 results 3 trades 1 winner 2 losers 0R

trade 27 +2R

 

trade 28 -1R

 

trade 29 -1R

[Peter 12]

wednesday results 1 winner +1R

[Peter 12]

I m selling my winners caotically  i created clear rules to hold winners longer:

stock selling rules:

1. I am raising stop to breakeven +1c after it reaches +2R ( to get "free trade")

2. I am raising stop after stock makes at least 3x1min. pullback, and after that new high/low to that pullback  -1c

3. if I have +3R then i raise stop to closed 5min. candle -1c and creating range order with target: next clear level on daily chart

4. if I have +5R then i raise stop to closed 1min. candle -1c (i raise stop only if 1min. candle goes my way. if its opposite candle I do not raise stop) and I still have target next clear level on daily chart.

Edited December 3, 2020 by Peter