ORB Accuracy Rate 59% but Can't Make Money

[Sebastian B 6]

37 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I looked over my journaling yesterday and there were a lot of trades where I took a few partials, moved my stop to break even then it came back to stop me out. So I decided to do the math and my red day would have turned to a green one with $70 extra in P/L($15 risk) if I had just set a all out at 2:1. I am going to try this method next week and see how it goes. Has anyone else gone this route?

I think its a psychology vs profitability question. While the analysis shows you are more profitabiliy keeping the first partial at 2:1 you will have more losers and then maybe, due to mental issues after 2 losers in a row, then you dont take the 3rd trade which would have been a highly profitable one. While if you had done a first partial at 1:1 and then b/e, you may have had a -1R and a +0.5R beforte the 3rd trade and then feel more confident to do the 3rd one.  The analysis however may give you the confidence to stick to 2:1. Thats how i see it

Edited August 29, 2020 by Sebastian B

[Sebastian B 6]

ah you meant to set "all out" at +2R. didnt get that right at first read. 

[hailchaser2 185]

On 6/19/2020 at 1:09 PM, Rob C said:

 

5) This is the change that finally placed me into profitability for ORBs. Add a few cents to your stop. I kept missing huge runs by the price dropping and taking me out by a penny or two and going for a 10R run. I kept telling myself it was a coincidence there isn't an algo going to my stop and taking me out. But after a 100 or so times I realize that is exactly what the algo is doing. Because I have set my stop in the same place as the other 10,000 or so retailers. So we all can be taken out at the same penny or two because we all chose to have our stop 5 cents below VWAP or something like that. So I added a couple of cents to my hot key. I still choose the same stop as always but my hot key makes the stop a couple of pennies deeper. Same for my B/E stop key I added a a couple of cents. Now, at least half the time, the price drops just misses my stop and the stock takes me with it on its big run.

So, did you just put price=avgcost-.02 instead of price=avgcost?

[Rob C 826]

7 hours ago, hailchaser2 said:

So, did you just put price=avgcost-.02 instead of price=avgcost?

Yep, that's it. I do have different hot keys for my hard stop sell and cover. The above would be for my B/E hard stop sell hotkey.