Cad's Swing Trade Ideas

[ecadaret 14]

Hi all,

Stock: CRWD

Today it broke above $95 and it's holding at previous resistance (now I suspect as support) just below $95 at $94.90 where it closed the day. It's a little extended from the rising 5-day SMA, but it's holding above the intermediate term (using 30-min chart here) SMA. During the market (market = SPX) sell off days between 8/1 and 8/7, it held up fairly well and tested and held $82.50. Since then it has continued to trend indifferent to the market.

A few considerations for future price action:

1. Consolidate around $95 before breaking higher.

2. Pull back and test $88.5 - $92.50 level before breaking higher

3. Drop and retest $82.50 if the market has another steep sell off.

Considering this stock has a unique niche in the cloud cyber security space, i suspect this may be a strong stock for a swing trade depending on how the market behaves as it has shown sensitivity to the market evident in the both 30-min charts for the past 30 days.

Trading plan for CRWD:

Currently in a position near the week low as I saw it was holding $82.50 as support and with the market making a clean "double bottom" pattern, it made a strong reversal. I plan to see what Monday brings to see what it does. Depending on what happens...

1. If the market doesn't have news that brings it down and it moves near the $2,940 - $2,950 level and CRWD is breaking above $97.50, take a 1/3 off and wait for a test to $94.90 to possibly add back to the position depending on price action and market activity.

2. If the market does have news that brings it down and moves back to $2,900 and CRWD trades with market or continues to consolidate around $95, take a 1/3 off and wait to see if it drops and retests $88.50 - $92.50. I'll re-evaluate from there. Always a good thing when using the houses money to finance another A+ trade.

Charts for reference:

 

Stock: FB

On the daily chart, it's making higher low's and higher high's since Dec 2018. On the 30-min chart, the 5-day SMA (yellow) is almost flattened out and the stock is now above. This seems like a possible long swing trade that is manageable with Options. It may have a pull back to $185 which is where it makes the most sense to take an entry with a favorable risk:reward ratio/setup.

Trade plan Long:

Wait for pull back to $185 and then put on a synthetic long of 2 contracts to play it for a push back to $200 with a 45-day expiration. If it drops to $181, take 1/2 off. If it moves up to $200, take 1/2 off and re-evaluate.

 

Stock: NFLX

On the daily chart, it seems to be holding the $300 level. The drop out candle at $300 seems isolated and the support level is around $307. This is not the best setup since it can go either direction, but the buyers seem somewhat keen to hold it up. The stock is above the 5-day SMA, but it's still declining and on the 30-min it's still making lower highs and lower lows. The recent market sell off seems to be contributing to the current price action.

Trading plan Long:

If the stock can break above $317, it seems that it would make a move back up to $330 and possibly $350. I would put on a regular slightly OTM bull call spread with a 45-day expiration.

Trading plan Short:

If the stock breaks $300 again, i would put on a slightly OTM bear put spread with a 14-day expiration and would cover fairly quickly since it'll likely have $5-15 move.

 

Stock: SQ

Square had surprise earnings beat, but suffered a large down move because of the market. It's in a oversold condition that if the market recovers and continues to move up, has a great risk:reward setup. Even with the large down move, it still is consolidating at a price that makes it a higher low on the daily chart. the 5-day SMA is in decline and the stock is trading around it, but since it moved so strongly with the market, it's showing similar characteristics. If the market makes a move, SQ will likely make a similar move.

Trading plan Long:

Currently in a synthetic long spread at $64.65 with a Stop set at $64.10. Plan to take partials at $68, $70, and all out at $75. May add back to position with Options or just common stock depending on price action testing previous resistance levels that recently became support and play for a swing move back to $80 depending on how market trades.

Lot's of info here, but if you can provide any feedback Brian, that would be appreciated. I am particularly interested in your thoughts on FB and SQ. I also welcome feedback from anyone in the community.

NOTE: Synthetic spreads are ADVANCED option strategies. If you are a newbie, I don't recommend them. Better to go for cheaper OTM calls or put spreads that meet your risk tolerance.

Hope all is well

-Cad

 

 

Edited August 11, 2019 by ecadaret
deleted extra chart.

[Aiman 86]

A lot of effort you put making this post) And quiet interesting though I'm not swinging! I wish I could help, but as said.. not swinging, but great to know your ideas on how to trade those!

[ecadaret 14]

Update:

CRWD - Closed CRWD at an average of $9.67/share

FB - Considering the market choppiness in it's range, i'm waiting to see what happens before making the play on FB.

NFLX - I missed the opportunity to get short with Puts, it was a fast move and It would have been profitable. That's alright. More opportunities always out there.

SQ - I got stopped out at $64.10. The stock is looking pretty dead to me now and I don't know if there is a bounce left in it in the short term. I am moving on from watching it until it makes a strong move up to >= $65.