Vikramaditya Trading Journal - Live 08Apr2019

[IamKarthi 342]

Additional Analysis on Risk:Reward Ratio:

I felt my partials were too early in Apr, I created a Heatmap to capture the R:R ratio for all the trades in April. Without no doubt, most of the partials were at 1:1.

The 1:1 partials don't work in the long term. Trading is a matter of probabilities, and with RR of 1:1 every $ you gain, you may lose another $ and you may never grow your portfolio. There is no EDGE.

Based on this analysis I decided to improve my partials in May, unfortunately, there weren't too many trades that were successful in May. Nevertheless, there is improvement and more Profit on the right side of the Heatmap in May. As a matter of fact, couple of my trades were losing trades, because I didn't want to partial early. I know that this will work in long term. 

Apr-19:

Mai-19:

 

 

Also, did an analysis on how to meet the Yearly $ target sooner with better RR trade setup and captured the same below. 

Edited June 2, 2019 by IamKarthi

[IamKarthi 342]

On 6/2/2019 at 4:04 PM, Marek said:

Great trading plan (in terms of risk management)....what I love about it is you limit the account and the number of trades per week and then slowly back off those restrictions. It could take more time to increase risk but but you will have spent less money learning the mechanics, price action and trading your favorite  setups.

A couple of comments:

- you noted "style drift"...I think this is quite normal...observe yourself and make some conclusions about what fits your personality and maybe adjust your trading plan. This is one reason I kept a "mental" trading plan and gave myself some flexibility to morph. Structure is helpful but being overly rigid can be an impediment to progress too. It comes down to how much discretionary decision making each trader can handle w/o incurring significant draw downs that damage you emotionally. Psychology needs to remain intact to trade well.

- Time frames: watching several time frames has helped me a lot recently...at the open probably 1, 2 or 5min and daily for determining support and resistance levels. Later alternating to 15, 30 or even the hourly chart helps too...had I paid more attention to the larger time frames rather than trading off 1min or even 5min (after the open) earlier on in my career that would have kept me out of many trades and saved me losses.

The limitation in the no of trades gives me time to reflect about my trades and revisit it again. I often enter additional comments on my journal, after my reflection. 

I would like to keep my Risk small at the learning phase, like if I am learning to drive a car, I wouldn't do it on a TESLA (''pun''), Toyota will do . I am planning to keep it this way, atleast for the next 3-4 months. It appears, everyone must go thru atleast 6 months of Live trading at the bare minimum before being consistent and I would like to do it with minimum loss.

- I noted the style drift as I used to trade a lot of VWAP pullback on ORB and MA bounces for reversals, but haven't used these setups for a while, but trying different setups. While I am shortlisting my setups, have found that lot of these setups are not much diffferent they just confirm each other in few cases. 

-Timeframes: I used to watch only 1 and 5min. Now I am trading the daily setups and I don't like to have too many technical levels in the chart. So I use 1, 2, 5, 15, 30 min and Daily chart now. And you are right, attention to the larger timeframe provides more clarity.

 

Edited June 4, 2019 by IamKarthi

[IamKarthi 342]

June-2019 - DASTrader Challenge - BT

I have enrolled into the DAStrader challenge. This lasts for a month 3-Jun till 28-Jun.

My main purpose of enrolling are

• I want to try out my actual Live Trading Strategies and Rules and identify the gaps.  I don't have too many rules at this stage and so it can also help me develop some new ones. 
• I am going full size for this challenge and see how my nerves are (though this is SIM, I will try to treat it as 'Live' as much as possible). 
• Since I am under PDT rule currently and have only 3 trades per week, I can take more trades thru this challenge.
• In short this is a pilot for my actual Live, which may happen soon. Of course, if I win this there are benefits

My Main strategies are:

•  ORB (esp 3 candle setup)
•  Harmonious charts (esp at ATL or ATH)
•  Double bottom with hammer at support.

Other strategies I use with reduced share size. 

•  RobertH the Great reversal
•  MA bounce (esp 50 and 200MA on higher timeframes)
•  Candle reversals - Hammer, Shooting Star, Inverted hammer, Hanging man

My Rules are:

• Only one trade at a time. 
• Stick to my StopLoss:  
• Don’t trade within 2 mins: 
• Max 4-5 Trades per day, but mostly 3 trades. If I hit my target then I reduce my share size to 1/10. 
• Risk per trade $250, max loss per day $1000. 
• I am taking fullsize, so I will use upto 75% of my BP (100K) for a trade, this is atleast 10 times more than my current Live trade (200 shares Real vs 2000 shares in the Challenge)

 

Edited June 15, 2019 by IamKarthi

[IamKarthi 342]

03.Jun.19 - DASTrader Challenge - BT

First day of the challenge. I had $FB, $CRON, $LK and $AMD on the watchlist. $AMD popped up premarket due to some news about Samsung mobiles using AMD chips. Was watching $AMD and $FB at the open. 

1st Trade: $AMD bounced off from VWAP and Itook Long position, I partialed quickly as the price I felt was too extended premarket and lot of buyers may be taking profits at the open.

2nd Trade: $AMD 2min offered a 3 candle setup and I went Long, one partial at HOD and got stoped out.

3rd Trade: While I was in $AMD trade I was also noticed ORB setup on $FB, I didn't take it, as I can manage only one trade at a time. After I was done with the AMD trades I took 15min ORB on $FB, no partial just exited at 1.5:1 RR.

 

Trade 4,5&6: In the afternoon, I took $FB reversal below 50MA on the 1 min, got stoped out. Went short again $FB after it bounced off 50MA on 1 min (inside), I had 1R profit, I didn't take it and got stopped out. There was support on 50MA from 2min and the price wouldn't drop though $SPY dropped. I waited for the price to drop below 50MA (2min) and took short again. This time it worked with good RR. 

Trade 6: $AMD was so bearish thru out the day, it did offer a small reversal and I took it. 15min offered a double bottom with hammer at support level, I went long and partialed at 2;1.

 

Good: I traded only setups, was able to manage the large positions in multiple trades.

Improvement:

• my reversal trades on $FB were really poor, I shouldn't have gone with full size, I almost gave 50% of profit back. I am not very good at MA cross reversals, and I haven't practised them. I need to reduce my sharesize.
• I should have stopped after my first 3 trades. No need to overtrade and lose to the market.
• Partials are just Ok. 

Edited June 15, 2019 by IamKarthi

[IamKarthi 342]

04.Jun.19 - DASTrader Challenge - BT

$BOX, $AMD, $UBER, $VTR on the watchlist, I was also looking at Lowfloats like $SOLY and $PTI. $BOX and $VTR had gapped down, while the Market gapped up. 

I Traded $BOX today. 3 candle setup on the 2 mins, Entry on the 3rd breakout candle, stop below the low of 2nd candle, Range order to get 2:1. I can trade only the first 45 mins after the market open, then I have to take care of my kid and I can trade only in the afternoon. So I always use Range order, in a way, this has helped me a lot, because I am not sitting and watching the price action nervously. Sometimes I get stopped out (I remember my $CSCO trade) but in long term, this will help. It has helped me today, I got my 2:1. It was a one and done day.

• Entry - $15.85
• Stop - 25c
• Target- $16.3
• Exit - $16.3

Good:  I didn't take another trade, learnt my lesson from yesterday.

Improvement:

• I saw the 2nd 2min candle opening above VWAP, it was an indication for Long, I just din't jumpin, but waited for a solid confirmation. 
• the only drawback with Range order is, I use moving Stoploss (like VWAP) a lot, so once price moves in my direction my original stop is not valid, but Range order can't map tech levels into it.

Edited June 15, 2019 by IamKarthi

[IamKarthi 342]

05.Jun.19 - DASTrader - BT

$ROKU, $AMD, $PVTL were on my watchlist. All 3 of them had harmonious setup (SPY had gapped up). $ROKU on ATH, $AMD on 52week High. $PVTL on ATL. I really liked my watchlist today. At the Open I was watching $ROKU and $AMD (only because I never traded $PVTL before).

Trade 1: No clear setup on the first 4 mins on $AMD on $ROKU, I noticed $AAPL, setting up to go higher, I went long after the 2nd 2min candle bounced off from VWAP. But I got stopped out. $NVDA was already dropping from the open, it was only time $AAPL also drops. And after my exit $AAPL dropped significantly. Failed trade.

Trades 2&3:

At this time Roku was setting for going up. I went long on the 5th min candle, din't get a good fill, exited the position. (TRADE 2)

Price bounced back from MA, I went long again (Trade 3). I was not sure if this ORB was valid, at that time, until the 3 candle setup appeared on 2min. So I stayed on my trade, didn't exit on the pullback, as the price moved up. I took a small early partial, as I was nervous about the first loss. I put in a range order and was watching the price action. I keep moving the my stop (VWAP) as the price went up. I made a mistake on the range order and exited most of my position. The setup was still valid, so I went in long for the same size again. exited close to $100. I didn't want to wait watching it longer and also thought at $100 price may drop due to traders booking profits. 

I was up small green. I came back in the afternoon, Market was really choppy, so decided to not trade again today. May be tomorrow will be a better day.

 

 

Good:

• While I was in $ROKU, $PVTL dropped beautifully. I couldn't resist going short, but I didn't. I obeyed my rule of staying in only one Trade. I don't think I can manage 2 trades at the same time at the open. 
• The Range order mistake kicked me out. I immediately went in again, as the setup was still valid, and it was my mistake. This is true, even if I made loss out of the trade (infact price dropped against me after my re-entry)
• I stopped trading after I felt the market was choppy and I was making mistakes. Live to fight another day. 

Improvement:

• I shouldn't have entered $AAPL trade, I should have waited for my setup from my watchlist. I am not comfortable with just ORBs. ORBs with 3 candle setup has higher success.
• couple of hotkey mistakes today. 
• Ok partials, but today was a rough day so it's ok (although my watchlist was very good)

 

 

 

Edited June 15, 2019 by IamKarthi

[IamKarthi 342]

06.Jun.19 - Live Trade

I slept only 4 hours today, so was a bit tired at the open. I had $CLDR, $AMD, $UBER & $ROKU on watchlist. $CLDR gaped down and just above ATL, I thought it would break and go down further. $ROKU was on ATH. 

At the Open, took AMD Long after the 3C setup on 1min. I closed out my position as i got my RR and had to leave. $AMD popped close to $32, very strong thru the day. 

Entry - $31.25, Stop - 15c, Profit - 1.5RR and 3RR

Good: Took small size (per my last month's observation), traded only the valid setup.

Improvement - I made a hotkey mistake by partialing twice, instead of once. I am thinking about trying out ''All or Nothing Exits'' on Live trades, I have been doing that in SIM and it is working well. 

 

Edited June 6, 2019 by IamKarthi

[IamKarthi 342]

06.Jun.19 - DASTrader - BT

I did my Live trade today. After that switched to my Best trader account. Jumped into CIEN after seeing the 5min candle breakout. ABCD pattern forming on 2 min. I saw 2 candles with lower wick (sort of bouncing off MA) and then price moving up. So I took it long. Bad spread and slippage, I was alrady down when I entered. Price turned against me. I felt nervous about the price action, but I didn't exit. The next candle pulled up and formed the 3C setup. So I remained. Took some early partial to book some profit. Final one at 2:1thru Range order.

Good: Hardly any. May be I was able to recognize the setup even under pressure of losing money and price going against me. 

Improvement: I immediately jumped into this trade. Need to wait for the setup, instead of riding on momentum.

Almost Perfect Trade.

Entry - 43.55, Stop - 75c, Exit - 1RR, MFE price - 2RR

 

 

Trade 2: i took a small trade on $AMD after noticing the 15min 3C setup. Usually it doesn't work because of huge Risk (bigger 15min candle) and Price don't move that much after Open, action moves to Reversal. $AMD was strong, so I took a micro size in it. Price moved up, but I bailed out. 

 

Edited June 22, 2019 by IamKarthi
Correction on the Entry signal on CIEN

[IamKarthi 342]

07.Jun.19 - No Live Trade Today, as I was tired and also not finding any favorable setups at the Open for 25 mins. Decided I will not trade today. 

My watchlist was $BYND, $AMD, $MSFT, on the Lowfloat Lowprice - $ZM, $LJPC, $HOME.

Edited June 7, 2019 by IamKarthi

[IamKarthi 342]

07.Jun.19 - DASTrader - Best Trader

After finding no favorable setup on my watchlist, I started checking other stocks and found $FB.

Trade 1: $FB - Green, I traded this to Long, Price popped up, pulled back but bounced off the 9MA 3 times, I went long on the 4th candle. Price dropped to VWAP and I added. Partialled at 2:1 and 3:1. Very happy with this trade, though I didn't do it Live. Due to the high priced stock, I couldn't take large position. 

Entry - 170.9, Stop - 50c, Exit - 1.5RR (171.6), 3RR (172.63), 4RR(173). Was worried about price forming Double top at $171.6 and reversing, but $FB was strong. It was a good trade.

MFE price - 174 (5RR). Almost perfect trade.

 

 

Trade 3: Red. Took another Reversal on $FB that failed. Took short below MA cross that din't work. It's not my favorite setup. 

Trade 2: Red. I had $ZM on watchlist too. It was just below $20M float, Traded like a lowfloat. I never trade LF, but took this one, because the price action was nice, HH on 15min. Big MISTAKE. After moving up, the price dumped suddenly I gave it a 1$ stop that kicked in. Got stopped out. Nice setup, Wrong stock. 

Trade 4: $AMD Green. 30min before the close $AMD had a perfect shooting star setup on 5min. Took it short and profited at 2:1 (no partials). 

 

 

Good: Focusing only on consistency and trading only setups. Didn't take LF stocks to make great gains, but trading only midcaps and focusing on being consistent. Didn't over trade, just 4 Trades. 

Improvement:

• I lost my 2R profit of FB on $ZM against 1R loss. This is bad. I gotta reduce the share size, if the stop is large.
• I don't trade near the close, but $AMD setup was perfect and it worked out.
• Gotta rethink the strategy for taking MA cross reversals.
• Need to make large gains next week. 

Edited June 23, 2019 by IamKarthi

[IamKarthi 342]

10.Jun.19 - Live

Today I had a Crazy trading day. I didn't blowup my account, but very strange trading day, close to a Hulk day. 2 Trades. Red. My watchlist was $AMD and $MSFT and Lowfloat/Lowprice $PRVB, $MNKD

Trade 1. $AMD - I traded premarket today. I have been watching $AMD and the 52 week high of $34 mark. Today the price touched $34 at the premarket finally. I was sure that the price will go back again to $34 and cross it too. I waited for the pullback to VWAP and went long, I added to my position too. Price went up only slightly, then I got stopped out before the open. For the first time, my Range order stop didn't work and I had to manually get out of my position. I think it is because of the lowvolume and volatility in the premarket. This is my first time ever that my Range order didn't work. At the open price dumped and then pulled back to $34. I was right about the setup, but  traded very badly. I felt like an idiot after these 2 trades. I wanted to get these 2 trades out, and then move to SIM quickly. 

 

Trade 2:

At the premarket, I noticed $MNKD, it was positive clinical studies. Gapped up, Good volume. At the premarket, price touched $2 and dumped back to $1.3. I was very interested to go long due to the above reasons. So I went Long just before the open. Price slightly went up, then dumped thru the rest of the session. Got stopped out. Another bad trade. This was not Stock in Play, there were many other stocks which were good. I felt like I was doing my own thing in a corner.  

Good: 

• I had 2R as my Risk for $AMD trade. I had only 1R for $MNKD. I added to my position on $MNKD because the Risk has to be the same in any no of trades to get the Probabilities working. 
• I didn't panic about the situation, I just moved on. 

Improvement: 

• First time, I traded premarket Live today, not one but two trades. Need to try this out in SIM a lot first. 
• First time, I added to my position, I never do that even in SIM. I did it Live. I wanted a better position, and at premarket adding to position seems to be the option for better entry. Try in SIM first. 
• First time, I didn't get stopped out on my Range order. Luckily my sharesize was not so big and I was still watching so was able to manually get out. This is due to the volatility and low volume premarket. 

Edited June 15, 2019 by IamKarthi

[IamKarthi 342]

10.Jun.19 - DASTrader - Best Trader

I had a plan to improve my share size this week and try to find ways to improve gains. My watchlist was $AMD, $BYND, $MSFT and Lowfloat/Lowprice $PRVB, $MNKD. At the end of the day, I was green, but I didn't like the way I traded today. I was very nervous and was hoping for price to go my way looking for a setup.

Trade 1&2: I took $MNKD and $AMD Premarket. I took them both Long hoping for the price to reach Premarket High. Both didn't work out. I was in $MNKD for long time hoping for it to give me the fallen angel setup to target $2. Finally I got out after almost 2 hours from the Open taking a loss. As my BP was locked in $MNKD, I could trade very limited and also didn't have time to check out on other stocks for e.g $PRVB (which traded very well today).

Trades 3 & 4: Took $AMD long after bounce off from 200MA 1min. Stop 6c. Entry $33.62. Price moved quickly to $33.89 (25c @ 4:1 RR) I partialed once, then added on the pullback, but got stopped out. Instead of 4RR exit I got BE exit, because of the way I managed the trade. I should have taken more partial or get out after the 4RR. The setup always offers another Entry. I added, I never add to my position, it never works. Took another Long $AMD above 200MA on 1 min again (as the candles had long lower wicks indicating buyers in control), but got stopped out again. I was ok with Trade 4, though i got stopped out. 

Trades 5&6:

$AMD reached $34 level (even$) and created a shooting star on 5min. There was also huge wall on Ask at the price of $34. I went short with $34.01 as Stop. Got stopped out, slippage another 5c. I fliped my position and got 2:1 RR

Shooting star setup hasn't worked for me most of the times. May be a B-setup, Take lesser shares. 

Trades 7,8 &9: $BYND, I had 3 Long Trades at the open. Watched the price bounce off of MAs and took it long, waited the pullback and exited. Trade 8 scaled. Trade 9 was ABCD pattern on 2mins towards the HOD. $BYND was crazy strong today. From my entry $155 it moved up to $185 in 10mins. On hindsight, I could have held longer, but I am happy to get out and get in again on these volatile stocks. 

Entry - $155, MFE price - $185. 15RR (with 2$Stoploss). Fallen Angel setup. I took 3 separate trades within this range. 

Trades 10,11 &12: $BYND, Also took 3 more trades (1 Loss and 2 Winner - Long on 2 hammer setup on 2min). 

 

Good:

• Despite overtrading in Live and SIM, trade management was good most of the times. When they are bad, they turn out worse. 
• Ended the day Green.

Improvement: 

• Too many trades (12) today. I would like to finish one and done, if not maxium 4-5 trades. Almost a Hulkday and felt I was going to give back all my profits till now. 
• if the setup doesn't work GETOUT, don't hope. 
• Don't add to the position, it doesn't seem to work for me
• Shooting stars are not working for me most of the times, hammer double bottom has very good success rate. 
• Too many partials are not working. All or Nothing is working quite fine .

 

Edited June 22, 2019 by IamKarthi

[IamKarthi 342]

11.Jun.19 - DASTrader - Best Trader

 Yesterday, I was pretty exhausted after Over trading and Journaling for 3 hours because of that. One of the reasons I didn't overtrade today, kept it very simple. Luckily caught the setup too. Green day. 

I had $CRON, $AMD, $INTC on watchlist along with $PRVB, $CBAY and added $ZYNE later (from Andrew's watchlist). I ended up trading $ZYNE.

Trade 1: At the open the usual suspects were very choppy, didn't offer any setup for 20 mins. I took $ZYNE finally which offered Fallen angel setup. It was Lowfloat, price went down at the open and slowly came back to VWAP around 9.50AM. Price bounced off VWAP and all the MAs. I took Long once the candle opened above the support. Bad spread and slippage. Nevertheless, exited the trade at 2:1 RR. It was harmonious setup too, so held 10% of position to go higher. Price struggled to go up and I exited. 

Trade 2: Noticed the price pulling back up to support again $ZYNE. It hit the HOD multiple times creaeting flattop for few mins, MAs are still trending up. I waited for the HOD break and went long. Now that I see it, this is also the Ascending Triangle that RobertH talks about in his video. Once again All or Nothing (AON) Exit. Stock was too strong and went 20c above my Exit. Big share size so exited a bit early, I need to get my DAS hotkey for 2:1 setup. 

Trade 3&4 :  After 2nd trade i had reached my daily target. My rule is once my daily target is done, I will trade at 10% share size and will do only if good setup exists. Since $ZYNE was still strong, I took another 2 trades for the Target of $14 (even$ - B setup) from $13.85, it didn't work out. and I stopped out. 

Trade 5: $MSFT. I took a reversal on $MSFT after noticing double bottom on 2min. The price was not able to push down and struggled for 30mins. I went long after the indecision doji on 5min. Price moved 1R and I didn't take partial, got stopped out. $MSFT when in play is too strong on Long and Short. I have traded Hanging man on $MSFT before and it failed me few times too. 

Good:

• I didn't overtrade only 5 trades after yesterday's lesson. 
• Met my daily goal.
• Although I had 3 losers I gave only 10% of my profit back. Stick to my Rules.
• $BYND was in action today, I didn't trade it after yesterday.

Improvement:

I keep burning my fingers on $MSFT and reversals. They are just not working out. 

Edited June 11, 2019 by IamKarthi

[IamKarthi 342]

12.Jun.19 - DASTrader - BT

Today I was totally tired due to lack of sleep in the last couple of days. But I decided to do the Premarket work and see how it goes. I actually ended up trading quite a bit. 

I had $MU (Harmonious - Opened below 9MA daily) $AMD. I also had Lowfloat/Lowprice stocks like $BYND, $CBAY (for Fallen angel setup)

Trade 1: I made my biggest mistake on the first Trade in $MU. I Went short after I noticed the 3C setup on 1min. The price went against me I took one partial and stopped out. I took large size, but I saw my P&L accidentally and panicked. I should have realised the price wasn't even close to my STOP. Entry - $33.8, Stop - 15c, price moved only 12c against me and I stopped out. $MU was really bearish and moved a whole $ before afternoon. It was not about money, but the fact that I had my setup and I screwed it up. But it happens. Another day. May be my lack of sleep played a role here.

Entry - $33.88, Stop - 15c. MFE price - $32.73 (7RR)

 

Trade 2,3&4: $BYND. Trade 2 - I moved on from $MU and watched $BYND. I noticed 3C setup on $BYND. It was also a bullflag and Flattop breakout. Took it Long and after a doji appeard on 2min, I exited All. It was All-or-Nothing (AON) trade. Trade 3 - Slippage and Spread is really bad on these LF stocks, so I had to keep that in check. I also took another long to HOD and exited AON for small profit. Trade 4- Took another long close to VWAP and got stopped out - bad trade. 

 

Trade 5: $ZYNE,  This was trading well yesterday, today was a followup day. I noticed the Fallen Angel setup. My Entry was late, I chased it a bit, and the price droped and stopped me out. Already the spread and slippage is bad, the volume is bad, there are resistence above, i shouldn't have taken this trade.

 

Good: 

• on Trades 4 & 5, I gave 75% of my profit back. I switched off my machine and went out. i decided not to trade today. Not even to watch stocks or be part of the Chatroom.. Watching stocks will make one to trade more and lose more. Atleast a small green at the end of the day. 

Improvement:

• I achieved my goal after my Trade 2. I should have stopped here, I traded 3 more times and got burnt.
• As my share sizes were small on losing trades, I didn't stop at my Stoploss, expecting the price to come backup. This is new bad habit. I MUST respect my stoploss in all cases.
• When I am really tired, trade very small size or skip the day totally.

Edited June 22, 2019 by IamKarthi

[IamKarthi 342]

13.Jun.19 - DASTrader - BT

On my watchlist today, I had $ROKU (ATH), $LULU (Earnings) and $TWTR and from the Lowfloat $BYND, $PRVB & $RH. Today it was One and Done Trading day.

Trade 1: I called out $TWTR, because the daily was just below 9MA, and it had the potential to go down $2 further. Volume was high (compared to other days) and increasing. I decided to take $TWTR at the open. $ROKU was ATH, but started bearish. $TWTR didn't have any volume for the first 5 mins, then Volume came in and I took Short close to VWAP. It was Harmonious setup. Price consolidated for long time, I took 90% out at 2:1 and kept 10% for 4:1. I know Harmonious setup offers atleast 3:1 RR. I can trade only the first 45 mins from the Open so closed my position. I can trade from Mid afternoon, but I am not good at reversals, and I prefer to trade at the open. 

Setup: Entry: $36.6, Stop : 15c, Target : $36.04, Exit - $36.25 /$36.15/ $35.87 (2R, 3R and 5R)

Good: Planned the Trade well. I didn't like other setups so Stopped Trading. 

Improvement: Could have partialed at atleast 3:1, but I had to be away. Atleast, Harmonious setup proved to offer 3:1 RR again.

Edited June 14, 2019 by IamKarthi