Hey traders!
You know me as Matt R, blowing up the chat with Pivot alerts. I never traded with pivots before about a month ago, but turned them on one day by accident and man, was I glad I did. I did some research on them and it's changed the way I'm trading. I'm calling out stronger supports, taking better less risky trades, and getting out much safer than I was before.
For those who don't know what pivots are, here is a great article to start on:
https://thesecretmindset.com/pivot-points/
Tells a little about them, how they're calculated, and taking some basic pivot trades. In my opinion, they're just strong reversal trades, but instead of you going on your own and trying to see a W, or head and shoulders, or ABCD, or any other things that are subjective, this is a level that every single trader with a computer has access to, and is staring them in the face. They are numbers that DO NOT CHANGE!! ALL DAY! Everyone on the planet has the exact same numbers. And you know what else that means? Computers have them too. Which, in this case (and not usually the case in day trading) is great.
So have I figured it out and gotten 100% success? No. There are some times that I get faked out, just like any reversal. But my stop losses are shallow and my $10 and $20 losses are manageable when the rewards are so great. And now, I've started noticing even more trends with these. Here are the two main trends that I see on these trades:
1) NEVER take a pivot trade that is going against the stock (short a stock going up, long one going down) unless it CROSSES A MOVING AVERAGE! Just because the stock hits a pivot doesn't mean it will reverse. A lot of times a strong stock will just blast right through. I have examples of this in all three charts below.
2) If you do take a trade that bounces off a pivot and then crosses a MA, beware of normal resistances, like VWAP, other resistance, HOD, Open, etc. I have found that three (3) 5-min candles in a row or a MA cross of any kind mean the trend is possibly over and the pivot reversal could be done. COULD BE. Just keep your finger on the trigger. These things are not bullet proof, and are subject to the same issues other trend trades are. People can always change their mind, or news can come out, or whatever. We will not always bounce happily from one pivot point to another.
That's it so far. I attached some photos of some charts of trades I did. I took a few false pivots and tried to figure out what happened. Each time, it was because I broke one of these two rules. The other thing you need to know is that you could be buying or selling on a bounce. That is ok. Pivots bounce 2, 3, 4, or even 5 time before breaking, especially over slow periods like lunch. See the SQ example 1. You need a lot of patience with this strategy. If you took the trade at the first bounce, you would have been at break even for some time. Stop losses are your friend here.
Which leads me to rule #3.
3) Set your stop at a pivot trade above the highest candle wick above the pivot, which really shouldn't be more than $0.10-0.20 or so.
See, so your risk on these trades is very small, so you can price/buy shares accordingly. As far as price targets for these, obviously the next closest pivot is the end target, unless the move is breaking one of the main rules! (It's not near a MA, no supports in sight, etc) Just pay special attention to each 'obstacle' as I call them. Once you've passed another one, it's one step closer to finishing the Pivot journey.
The final thing that's exciting about these is holding a position long or short that's approaching them. In the last photo, NVDA was a trade I had long from open from another strategy. I held that puppy until $144.50 because of these rules (no breaking MA at pivot, etc).
I hope this article helps! Again, this is what I've seen, practiced, and read. Typical disclosures, don't listen to me, I'm a nobody, do your own research, etc etc. However, these PPs are very exciting and I hope it will help all of us be more confident and able traders. Anything to give us a leg up over those other people, right? See you guys in the chat and let me know if you start seeing additional trends for us all to become aware of!
Thanks guys!
Matt R
