Jump to content


Lifetime Members
  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

3 Neutral

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Crude oil setup. In my opinion, oil likely to make a move as production cuts agreement to go through. Tight stop loss. Edit 2: Locked in profits as uncertainty arises about the amount of BPD cuts.
  2. Following up on last week's post we had some big numbers and moves happen. Non-farm payrolls were -700k vs -100k expected. Analysts were off by 700%! If that is not scary by itself, then is the fact that those numbers were pre-COVID-19 lockdown! April, which is the month we will be getting data more up to date is going to be scary to say the least. My predictions on 15% unemployment mid-year might even not be enough! In my opinion, we can safely say unemployment rate will end up more than 10% if it already is not. Those numbers will keep increasing. The stimulus bill has given incentive to be unemployed. The benefits of being paid your full salary for a year, while getting extra weekly benefits until July 31st, has raised the question of why an individual should even risk to work or look for a job under these conditions or afterwards? Switching to Europe, no progress has been made as Germany still refuses to grant liquidity and relief through bond purchasing, with Spain and Italy hurting the most, France starting to get irritated, we can expect those tensions to keep rising. As I will attach below is the total exposure on credit obligations France has on Italian banks, we want to pay close attention to how things develop. Nonetheless, the combination of those events and dollar strength has weighed on the EUR, and as mentioned last week, has fallen. It closed on Friday at 1.08 dropping from 1.11 at the start of the week. A pull back could be expected but I see it reaching the mentioned target of 1.05-1.06 eventually. The pound also took a beating dropping as well but still far off my target. As risk-off sentiment keeps growing, more and more investors will be pulling out their money off the stock market. This is important for GBPUSD as of late is closely correlated with the performance of the SPX. My prediction for the SPX still stands and I believe the sooner the market realizes the economic downside the better. In my opinion, the market is currently underestimating the economic consequences we have suffered. Lastly, let’s talk about oil. After Trump’s tweet mentioning production cut agreement with the Saudis and Russia, oil made a historic surge up to 40%, with Kremlin dismissing any confirmation. However, a meeting is expected on Monday to discuss current oil prices. I say take it with a grain of salt and watch as things develop. No matter the supply cuts the problem here is aggregate demand which cannot be addressed at the moment.
  3. I agree, being a trader in these market conditions is ideal especially in the FX market. Additionally, options are very good for these times. As regarding to your point about unemployment there are plenty of estimates but their range is about the same. Goldman Sachs came out with a report just recently saying we are to expect Q1 GDP -9%, Q2 GDP -34% and Unemployment rate to reach 15% mid-year! The numbers for the EU are even worse! I am worried a lot about the debt crisis starting from Italy. I ought to keep a closer looks on some of the CDS to really get a better picture. (If anybody can fill me in on the CDS and ABS numbers for Italy, Greece and Spain I would appreciate it. ) Things can get really ugly, mostly because a large part of those countries' GDP (Italy, Greece, Spain) is the tourism industry. I am very worried... Back to the US, those are absolutely terrifying numbers. For comparison, during the housing crisis unemployment rate reached 10%. I am very skeptical to the estimates that say we will bounce after Q3 and Q4 because quite simply we cannot predict a health crisis! I am very very very pro-dollar. This is a world wide hit and I expect every central bank to be running in demand for dollar liquidity through swap lines.
  4. Hello, my name is Tasos , I am 20 years old and I originally come from Greece. I have been a member of Bear Bull Traders technically for four years, since 2016. However, I had to create a new account last year where I got a Lifetime membership. I began my journey of trading since I was 16, I dropped out of high school and was trading while working. I did DAS simulator for many years and had many conversations with Andrew. I failed. A lot. It would be incredible to calculate the amount of hours I spend these last four years looking at screens with candlesticks. I had to take drastic measures because of life events that caused me to leave trading to the side for a while, but it was always on mind and what I aspired to do for the rest of my life. I finished online high school and I am currently pursuing a BSc in Banking and Finance with a Minor in Financial Markets Trading, and yes there is such a thing (long way trading has come). I mainly participate and trade the FX market and have interests in commodities and basically all Macroeconomic subjects. I have come a long way from a kid knowing nothing about how this whole thing works and I am excited to see where I can reach. My goal eventually is to become a hedge fund trader or an IB. Nevertheless, whatever happens, trading is the reason I have goals in life. It has changed my life, it has taught me things about my life and made me the best version of myself. I decided to be more active in the Forums as of late since I do not have school obligations because of COVID-19 and plan to participate even more. Since I do not particularly trade stocks anymore I will be posting on FX market forum where I hope I can exchange ideas with people. Lastly, I know Andrew is a great guy and hope he remembers me and it feels good to be back and see how much the community has grown. It honestly is the best non-toxic community there is with actually smart individuals in this space. Safe trading!
  5. Hi, first time post here but here are my two cents. I believe the stimulus bill being passed is the current cause of SPX having a pullback, thus causing EURUSD and GBPUSD to make these moves. The sentiment currently is risk on, but the reality of the situation is that the virus has not been solved and the worst is yet to come, especially in the U.S. I expect by the end of the week NYC to be in a lock-down and more states to follow. Additionally, this week is important because we are going to have post effect indicators of the economy, as of the past week we had lagging indicators i.e Weekly unemployment job claims at 3 million! A number that you would think would not cause the stock market to record its best weekly gain since 1938. Nevertheless, I expect DXY to form new highs in the weeks/months to come and I expect EURUSD under 1.05 and GBPUSD under 1.10 (My opinion and my opinion only) The spread in the credit market is also concerning and what I expect to be one of the causes our economy is going to go into a recession. Also, I foresee bad numbers coming out of the US and markets changing sentiments, causing SPX to fall even further. I believe USD will re-establish once again its safe haven status and eventually achieve parity against the EUR, which I see having major problems. A dissolvement of the EU in the long run might not be out of the question IMO. Lastly, I believe we will see WTI under $20.
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.