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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/13/2020 in Posts

  1. 6 points
    Thursday - August 13, 2020 Futures Watch /ES has been steadily building value in the upper range of recent sessions such that the 10D 30M Volume Profile has moved; currently, the recent highs are now the new VA High 3380. Due to the fact we are in the VA Range and have touched the VA High, our Main Thesis is a pullback to test the V POC 3320, around the lows of Tuesday's session. If we break above VA High, we will begin a new round of 'Alternate Thesis' where we should return to the range, but may continue higher and causing additional trending days. 10D 30M Chart /NQ has remained inside the new VA Range 10875 to 11180, consolidating around V POC 11100 and currently testing VA High. A break above the range will target recent highs around 11280, or conservatively 11250 with a higher volume node as a target. Otherwise, we'll look to return to V POC on a pullback. 10D 30M Chart /RTY has a wide VA Range with numerous volume 'pockets' below; ideally staying near V POC 1585 can lead to moves higher to recent highs and VA High 1605; however, we're currently below and have some risk to reject V POC for moves lower to different volume nodes (1560, 1540, and VA Low 1500). 10D 30M Chart Premarket Review at 9:00 ET Interesting Futures: Silver up 2.5% after a large selloff Tuesday and bounce around 23.50, target 27.50 on bounce as it provided support during the rally. Watching Gold, but currently tight consolidation and trying to hold 1920 area after a similar bounce as silver. Watching Natural Gas, Gas Report out at 10:30 ET Premarket Sectors at 9:15 ET Strong Sectors: Technology and BioTech up after strong days yesterday, continuation may occur and hold up QQQ Weak Sectors: Financials down again after starting strong yesterday and selling off most of the day. Other sectors starting slightly lower. Things to Watch: SECTOR ROTATION - Keeps occurring where usually One/Two sectors are strong while One/Two are weak. Usually a back and forth between Technology, Financials/Energy, and Health Care With Financials earlier this week, Technology and Health Care yesterday, and now we'll see which one matters or if they all are range-bound, leading to a choppy market. Watching: $AAPL, $RVLV, $SRNE, $FAT (Low Float) Secondary: $SLV, Natural Gas after Gas Report at 10:30 ET
  2. 2 points
    Wednesday +0.41R 4/5 2:1? 3/4 4:1? 3/4 BOXL, SIM pre-market trade +0.88R MSFT 1MinOrbUp +0.15R I second guessed myself after entering because of that crazy wick on the 2nd candle. So I took a quick partial, then got stopped at B/E 2:1? YES 4:1? YES WFC 1MinOrbUp +0.23R I had a bias long because of sector rotation into banks yesterday, this is not my 1MinOrb setup, so again I realized this after entering and took a quick partial and stopped at B/E 2:1? NO 4:1? NO MGM 5MinOrbDown +0.16R My uncertainty from the first two entries stuck with me on this one. 2:1? YES 4:1? YES MRNA 5MinOrbDown +0.91R 2:1? YES 4:1? YES ROKU BOUp@Level -1.0R Not a setup I should be taking. I did do a great job not revenge trading this one. I wanted to short when it lost VWAP, then go long when it regained VWAP, then long near HOD, then short after double top. I kept telling myself, "Look at that shitty 5Min chart, there is NO TRADE HERE, MOVE ON" So I guess that is a big positive! My uncertainty continues to haunt me. 11/12 winners would have made 2:1 before hitting my stop, I don't know why this psychological hurdle is so difficult for me to conquer. Hell, 9/12 have hit 4:1 before hitting my stop. I think I'm going to put an order in at 2:1 tomorrow for 50% and see if that helps at all. I've even considered the 100% 2:1 or stop range order to help with this issue.
  3. 2 points
    DAY – 16 (8.12.2020) Trades: 2 (Red) Symbols: 1; 5 (DT: BA; Swing: IBM, WKHS, SAVE, APA, WDC) Psychology: Slept poorly, did not trade until 2 pm. Confident in BA selling off Goal for the day: Day Trades – Look to short BA on big sell off – went to bed at 3 am so DNT. Swing Trades – Manage partials/exits and average downs according to pre-set plan. Daily Market Wrap-up: SPY had good constant gains all day, tested YTD high set back in February. Gold made a move back up in AHs yesterday and sold-off today to yesterdays LOD, it should bounce back once overbought RSI is balanced out. All sectors green although MRNA, INO, VXRT and most COVID vaccine 'players' were red for the day. WL: DAY TRADES: BA Overall grade = C, Loser, Potential 5R Catalyst: Extended, expecting it to sell off. Strategy: Daily Level Test on Weakness T1: Short bias, expecting this to sell off and sure did! FOMO – ‘Set It and Forget It’ (SIFI) trade, entry on 9 EMA rejection at daily level, targets are marked in image at two daily levels. Got stopped out. Trade Management: Overall, ok. In hindsight I see low volume test wick (yellow box), should have reversed position. However, this was a SIFI trade so could not do that – had to go to an appointment. NI – I ‘knew’ (speculation) this would sell off and could trade it, but tried at 2 pm. SIFI trade means it could go either way and today it went against me, was not at trade station to assess VPA, PA and L2. SWING TRADES: WDC No change. Entered position on this symbol after gap down due to ‘bad’ earnings, has spent that last 3 days trying to climb but being held down, has held $37 for 3 days. IBM: No change. Still holding 33% of position for the break of $130. Catalyst: 2 upgrades: Argus Research (buy from hold, $155) and Zacks Investment Research ($134 from $131, remains neutral). WKHS No change. Holding my position as institutional investors are still holding for long-term growth story. Daily volume is low but PA holding $15.15 support level. SAVE No change. Still holding with average price above $20, poor decision to buy and hold overnight on parabolic move (daily chart) back in early June. The upside is that SAVE is one of the strongest airline stocks in the current climate. Their cash burn rate is significantly lower than other airlines and their niche of catering to domestic vacation travelers should help them come out better once a COVID vaccine is announced and airlines get to flying again. I like SAVE for a hold until the end of 2020 (depending on November elections). APA No, change. Still holding for move above $20, entry below $10 (5.14.20). As a former O&G engineer I ‘know’ (speculative) that Apache is one of the best companies in their industry, with clean P/L, low debt and strong potential based on diversity of assets – onshore and offshore, domestic and international. Final Review: Goal for Day: 8/9 - PASS 1. Only trade the opening 5-mins if consistently trading symbol and confident with its move – PASS 2. Partial/average down or exit swing positions (according to pre-plan) – PASS 3. Work on better entries - PASS 4. Only trade the symbols on your WL - PASS 5. Trade without P/L on screen or in mind – PASS 6. On green symbol stop trading it for the day if lost any amount of green P/L – PASS 7. 3SYO – PASS 8. Enter trades with small position, upon confirmation of ‘move’ add to position on PB – PASS 9. Keep track of each trade on Daily Trade Log (action, entry $ or P-%, chart, notes) – NA #5 and #8 are game changers for my confidence and trade management Things I did well: Stick with stocks I prepared on ahead of time, I was expecting BA to sell off and it did, was down as much as -6% at one point, finished -2.60%. Things I did poorly: Revenge trades after deciding on BA trade that failed, 2 revenge trades that also failed. Major observations to work on: Bottom Reversal o I want my entry below the daily level o When I thin kits time to enter, it’s still too early – wait.
  4. 1 point
    Up to you sir! You can always just go in with small size, worst case scenario you have a few bad days, lose a small amount of cheddar, then jump back in SIM. I'm thinking i'll do the same here pretty soon
  5. 1 point
    2020-8-13 <SIM> One and Done ! Was planning on trading the first 90 minutes, put decided to call it a day after one trade TRADE 1 $AMD 2 Minute ORB +2.72R A little proud of this one as it did not make a breakout at the one minute mark, but it did move a little later and I caught it. I was a little off of the rest of my watchlist as the other stocks went on SSR. I have to admit I was partialing heavy because my p&l was doing good and I wanted to capture the profit. I got a lot of shares with my entry and it moved fast. Since there were no levels where this stock was trading I wanted to lock in the dollars... Afterthoughts: Green day, Green week, Green month ! Good discipline today. Contemplating the thought of Live trading the early morning and then switching to SIM after the first 90 minutes. Thoughts ?
  6. 1 point
    All, Trying to 'anchor' a watch list with an auxiliary 'pop-out' chart that I use to monitor ETFs and major market indicators, such as QQQ or SPY. Can this be done with out having a montage for that chart?
  7. 1 point
    Loved the webinar. Thanks so much. Is there a file with the spreadsheet template to collect the data? Thanks!
  8. 1 point
    5-Minute Opening Range Breakout (ORB) 5_MIN_ORB.pdf High of Day Break / Low of Day Break HOD_LOD_Breaks.pdf VWAP Reversal VWAP_Reversal.pdf Mountain Pass Mountain_Pass.pdf 1-Minute Opening Range Breakout (ORB) 1_MIN_ORB.pdf Rising Devil Rising_Devil.pdf Falling Angel Falling_Angel.pdf Parabolic Reversal Parabolic_Reversal.pdf
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