Wasting my time?

[Aiman 86]

5 hours ago, wayneb said:

Just a quick update, what I've learned so far: Just finished my 5th month in sim and no improvement. In fact I feel I am getting worse over time. I know Andrew often says some people just cannot do this and I am seeing why. I have spent over 40hrs a week full time on this and have nothing to show for it. I have learned so much and could teach a course on it but cannot get it to work in the real world. Most of the time the patterns and strategies fail. It is easy to cherry pic setups after the fact but in reality I find most setups fail miserably. ORB's go the wrong way, ABC's fail, VWAP breaks are false, bull and bear flags go the wrong way. Support and resistance are non existent. For every setup that works I can find 10 that don't. The instructional videos are great but they are cherry picked stocks that the setup in question worked beautifully. Why not post a video on the 10 that failed .

My wife who knows nothing about trading just picks a stock because she likes the name, goes long or short and has a better win % than me. This tells me trading may come down to dumb luck and is just gambling. You really have a 50 / 50 chance of success on each trade and patterns / setups are meaningless. Andrews style confirms this because his accuracy is only 50% or less. He jumps in and at the first sign of failing gets out and tries again and again till he gets it right. Random! He gets it to work because he takes a big size and can make good profits on a .12 cent move. For most traders this strategy will not work. Even with 1000 share position you need a .20 cent move to make it worth your time and in this market that is very difficult. It is frustrating because I do have a passion (or maybe obsession, same thing I guess) for it and would love to con't but after 5 months I would think some improvement should be evident. I have recently started intraday trend trading and having some limited success  but still no better than 50 / 50 guessing. I tried a coin flipping experiment and my trading reflects the same outcome, about a 30% accuracy rate. 

Sorry for the long rant but I think most traders are going through the same thing and It's good to vent. Thanks everybody.

Had to read all the comments to write mine, I think I can help you, if you want it, just to make sure you're doing everything alright, can you share your journal for the last week? I want to see the trades you took, and the comments you gave yourself, I want to see what you wrote on you failing trades, why you think they failed, after that I can guide you a bit and tell me if it works

I also want to comment on the 50/50 thing you said, and I agree, day trading isn't a strategy which works 100%, it's a strategy which works at least 50 or more than 50%(50/60) and that's enough to make money if you follow your rules and always get out at 2:1, and in at 1:1

Do you trade base on share size? or $risk? for example do you always trade 50 shares or 100 shares, or you always risk only fixed amount of $

And finally, do you trade only 1 strategy? or everything

you should know that an ORB isn't just a candle which opened above the previous one and then you go long, and an abcd pattern isn't just a consolidation after a huge move to which you get and put stoploss at c anticipating a breakout, there's more to them and more feeling after you practice them

Anyway, I really hope you share your journal for the last week, or if you stopped journaling for the last time you journaled you trades, if you don't do that, do it the next week and share it

Honestly I don't believe that there are people who can day trade, and people who just can't cuz it's not in them

I believe that anyone who's doing it right, trying hard, putting the effort and work on it can do it

It's just that some people do it right, and then they succeed, and some people do it wrong thinking that they're doing it right because of which they just fail. Please share your jounral, and if there's something I can do to help I'll!!

[Daniel Thomas 23]

8 hours ago, wayneb said:

Just a quick update, what I've learned so far: Just finished my 5th month in sim and no improvement. In fact I feel I am getting worse over time. I know Andrew often says some people just cannot do this and I am seeing why. I have spent over 40hrs a week full time on this and have nothing to show for it. I have learned so much and could teach a course on it but cannot get it to work in the real world. Most of the time the patterns and strategies fail. It is easy to cherry pic setups after the fact but in reality I find most setups fail miserably. ORB's go the wrong way, ABC's fail, VWAP breaks are false, bull and bear flags go the wrong way. Support and resistance are non existent. For every setup that works I can find 10 that don't. The instructional videos are great but they are cherry picked stocks that the setup in question worked beautifully. Why not post a video on the 10 that failed .

My wife who knows nothing about trading just picks a stock because she likes the name, goes long or short and has a better win % than me. This tells me trading may come down to dumb luck and is just gambling. You really have a 50 / 50 chance of success on each trade and patterns / setups are meaningless. Andrews style confirms this because his accuracy is only 50% or less. He jumps in and at the first sign of failing gets out and tries again and again till he gets it right. Random! He gets it to work because he takes a big size and can make good profits on a .12 cent move. For most traders this strategy will not work. Even with 1000 share position you need a .20 cent move to make it worth your time and in this market that is very difficult. It is frustrating because I do have a passion (or maybe obsession, same thing I guess) for it and would love to con't but after 5 months I would think some improvement should be evident. I have recently started intraday trend trading and having some limited success  but still no better than 50 / 50 guessing. I tried a coin flipping experiment and my trading reflects the same outcome, about a 30% accuracy rate. 

Sorry for the long rant but I think most traders are going through the same thing and It's good to vent. Thanks everybody.

A few thoughts...  

-- I've voiced my opinion to MANY traders on the notion that trading is NOT, and will never be, synonymous with the typical gist of a 40 hour work week.  The more you trade, in my opinion (and based on THOUSANDS upon THOUSANDS of trades I've personally taken), the more you risk giving up profits.  I wrote this to you in an earlier response, but MANY traders lose money (often times giving profits back), because they can't fight the urge to keep trading.  They trade the "chop," when -- in fact -- they should be DONE trading by no later than 10:30am on MOST days...  It's perfectly acceptable to watch the markets, go over old trades, scroll through charts, etc. for 80 hours per week (I sure did), but to actually trade for more than a couple of hours each day.....in my humble opinion....is asking for disaster... 

I wrote --- on my actual desk --- that I am ONLY allowed to take trades based on very specific timelines (1st is a premarket trade around 08:45, next is a trade within the 1st 15 minutes of the bell, and 3rd is the 09:45 reversal/pullback).  Admittedly I often violate this "rule," but the fact that I've written this "rule," with a sharpie on the actual surface of my desk -- underneath where I place my hands when typing -- speaks to the reality that 90%+ of trading is psychology.  

-- you elude to the notion that trading is a 50/50 crap shoot.  Though I respectfully disagree, I'll run with the 50/50 thing for a second.  If a trader is ONLY 50% "accurate," and they are properly managing risk (ie, using a 2:1 reward/risk ratio) -- so long as all else remains relatively equal (price/position/etc...) -- then they are a profitable trader. 

Example:  a trader takes only three trades..., but does so with a 2:1 reward/risk ratio.  They risk $100 for the opportunity to make $200 on each trade.  

Trade 1: they're wrong, so they lose $100

Trade 2: they're wrong, so they lose another $100.

Trade 3: they're correct, so they make $200.

This trader was ONLY 33% "accurate," yet broke even.  All else equal, they literally only have to be 34% "accurate" to become profitable with a 2:1 ratio.  That is WORSE odds than flipping a coin, yet still profitable. 

What if this trader purposefully decides to be less "involved," and aims for only "perfect" set ups with "perfect" areas of support/resistance and stop/price targets at play (avoiding over-trading in the process)...?   Let's say they shoot for a 5:1 ratio instead (which I get on MANY of my trades; especially swing trades).  This trader only has to be "accurate" 20% of the time to break even.... 

I could go on for days, and give a thousand real life examples, but I don't want to beat a dead horse.  My point is that trading is easier -- statistically -- to place odds on than is flipping a coin.  So even if you're correct, and it is indeed a 50/50 gamble, my simply managing your risk -- you're a statistically profitable trader.  Risk is a psychology issue....believe me....  Ive learned this lesson MANY times...  I have more losses in the thousands of dollars than I'd like to admit.  What I do now....after paying that "tuition" to the game (as I call it), is take a few days off when it happens...  Sometimes the mind needs to reset....to rest...  And EVERY time I do this -- I come back with proper risk-management, and see consistently profitable days... 

-- I have personally grown accounts with less than $1,000 in them by over 500% MULTIPLE times.  I did a lot of this when I had a YouTube channel.  Believe me -- it looks a lot easier than it is..., but so does hitting a golf ball.  My point here is that just because it seems impossible to do, doesn't mean it is.  All of us --- ALL OF US --- get to a point with trading where we question whether, or not, we can actually do this...  I'm sure Tiger Woods questioned if he could make a come back, and he just won another major...  I just watched a documentary on Barbara Corcoran, and she too had struggles in real estate...  Ray Kroc was told his idea was moronic, Einstein was declared "retarded," and Michael Jordan couldn't make a basketball team...  All of these people, at one point in their lives, were at a crossroads similar to yours....  Maybe trading isn't for you, but that doesn't mean it's not possible for anyone..  The mind is a powerful thing man....and trading is one of the toughest tests of will-power, perseverance, discipline, and intestinal fortitude anyone could ever subject it (the mind) to... 

Trading is OVER 90% psychology.  The statistics do not lie....  This is one of the few opportunities in the world where you can be the "house," and take money from the gamblers...  the hardest part is avoiding getting caught as the gambler...  I know from experience... 

Anyways...  I gotta run..., or I would try to expand a little more on other things you wrote.  I'm not urging you to stick with its because it quite possibly isn't for you...., but believe me man --- it is possible to make money trading... 

Wish you well; stay humble; STAY GREEN!

6 hours ago, RTrader said:

Wayne, I honestly think you are right. You are realizing something that most people never seem to get. Day trading is the most stressful, and most difficult way to make money in the market. Maybe it’s all the internet marketing or something, but reality is there is almost no long term edge day trading. I know because I have been trading for years actively since about 2012. A lot of traders do well for a while, then fizzle out because the markets change. So the strategies do work, but only for a while and under certain market conditions or on the right stocks. If you back test low timeframe ORBs or most other day trade strategies people use on short timeframes, they really don’t have a measurable edge over time once you factor commission, taxes etc into it. The traders that do make money with those strategies, are using a lot of discretion in their decisions. I have noticed a lot of traders just want to jump in and starting using some of the strategies, but they don’t research and back test to see if they actually have a net profit long term.

If you are thinking of quitting, you should consider looking at swing trading first. A lot of people think it is risky to hold overnight, but I think it’s less risky. You are going to get much larger moves out of your trades, which means you can have smaller position sizes/larger stops etc. It’s much less stressful and honestly, more rewarding then scalping intraday. What I have found is the move everyone hopes to get day trading, many times doesn’t happen until the following day. The market rewards patient traders who stick to their plan. Sorry if this is all controversial; many people might not like it… but that has just been my experience. Remember the group is BearBullTraders, not BearBullDayTraders 😊

Example swing I took, and am still in: UBER breakout on 6/27. I waited until the late day pullback to enter around VWAP. I only use 60m charts and daily. I was planning to hold this overnight and longer if it works. Next day it launches on Friday and I was up over 4% in less than a day. Who knows maybe it will run huge. These IPOs can do some crazy stuff, but now I have a position I could potentially ride for very big move. We will see what happens.

 

[wayneb 7]

Thanks for all the awesome feedback guys, very helpful. Many of you reacted to my 50/50 comment so I would like to clear that up. I did not mean to imply my accuracy is 50% because that would be terrific. I am trying to say you have two outcomes in a trade, right or wrong. You could potentially be wrong or right 100% of the time. If I flipped a coin and it came up heads 8 times in a row would you increase your bet now thinking it's due for a tails? How many times would you have to flip it to get a true win / loss ratio? Impossible to know. To be 50% accurate consistently for at least a year would be amazing. Would it improve after several years? No one knows. I have had many days with 100% accuracy and many days with 0% accuracy and everything in between. As far as the 2:1 principle goes it only works if you are 40 or 50% accurate over your trading career. If you have a week or two of less than 40% you are now down and cannot make it back unless your accuracy improves to over 50%. As far as journaling goes unfortunately I do not journal on paper. I typically review my trades every night and write down some notes on index cards for reference. For a while I was trading the looser's again in trading sim a week or two later but started remembering the trades so the second time around went very different. Right now I think I'll take this short week off and see How I feel the following week. Thanks again guys.

[Aiman 86]

5 hours ago, wayneb said:

Thanks for all the awesome feedback guys, very helpful. Many of you reacted to my 50/50 comment so I would like to clear that up. I did not mean to imply my accuracy is 50% because that would be terrific. I am trying to say you have two outcomes in a trade, right or wrong. You could potentially be wrong or right 100% of the time. If I flipped a coin and it came up heads 8 times in a row would you increase your bet now thinking it's due for a tails? How many times would you have to flip it to get a true win / loss ratio? Impossible to know. To be 50% accurate consistently for at least a year would be amazing. Would it improve after several years? No one knows. I have had many days with 100% accuracy and many days with 0% accuracy and everything in between. As far as the 2:1 principle goes it only works if you are 40 or 50% accurate over your trading career. If you have a week or two of less than 40% you are now down and cannot make it back unless your accuracy improves to over 50%. As far as journaling goes unfortunately I do not journal on paper. I typically review my trades every night and write down some notes on index cards for reference. For a while I was trading the looser's again in trading sim a week or two later but started remembering the trades so the second time around went very different. Right now I think I'll take this short week off and see How I feel the following week. Thanks again guys.

My first 2 months I did the same, going through my trades after and do some notes, third month I started journaling and you can’t believe how much I improved after 

I recommend you put to charts on your screen and divide your screen in 2, the top part is 1 min chart from 9:25 to 13:00, and lower part 5 min chart 8:30-16:00, screenshot the screen, then scroll the one min chart from 13:00 to 16:00, after that screenshot the 15 min chart from 7:00 to 16:00 

do some comments on your trades or trades you could’ve taken, do it for every stock on your watch list, at the end of the week check what’s similar in your failing trades and what’s similar in your winners, were your trades making since? And much better if you post them here so we can help you with what you’re doing right and what’s wrong

[wayneb 7]

22 hours ago, peterB said:

i recomend  you to google for "the position sizing game" and try it yourself. it is a mind changer if you think like you write

Tried playing the game and it pretty much confirmed my trading. Not sure why it would change my mind? I would be broke in a month!

[BBT Member 001 27]

Are you reading the tape when you trade. I look at setups to know direction of stock but the other thing i use to determine if it will go up or down is the tape. 

 

Tape reading i think is the most important technical analysis required and not many cover it. 

[wayneb 7]

On 6/30/2019 at 7:43 AM, Aiman Almansoori said:

My first 2 months I did the same, going through my trades after and do some notes, third month I started journaling and you can’t believe how much I improved after 

I recommend you put to charts on your screen and divide your screen in 2, the top part is 1 min chart from 9:25 to 13:00, and lower part 5 min chart 8:30-16:00, screenshot the screen, then scroll the one min chart from 13:00 to 16:00, after that screenshot the 15 min chart from 7:00 to 16:00 

do some comments on your trades or trades you could’ve taken, do it for every stock on your watch list, at the end of the week check what’s similar in your failing trades and what’s similar in your winners, were your trades making since? And much better if you post them here so we can help you with what you’re doing right and what’s wrong

Actually I do that with a 1, 2, 5, and 15 min charts. One thing I noticed is trading in the lower time frames is my biggest problem. I get cut up in the chop and get stopped out. When I look at the stock on the bigger time frames I can't believe it's the same stock. Lately I have been looking at sectors and trading the big gappers on the higher time frames and look for all day runners not following the market. Not a perfect strategy because like most it fails 1/2 the time but I don't hit max loss in 10 min like the lower time frames. If it does work it is usually a 3 to 5R trade. Just have to watch out for reversals but if you going with the flow of the sector you have a better chance of it continuing all day.

[wayneb 7]

On 6/30/2019 at 3:45 AM, peterB said:

i recomend  you to google for "the position sizing game" and try it yourself. it is a mind changer if you think like you write

So after digesting this a little and reading trading in the zone it's starting to make some sense. I am basically right in saying trading is completely random and you have a 50 / 50 chance in every trade. Accepting this fact the only way to be successful is to follow strict risk to reward principles. I will risk 1% of my account on each trade and get out at a 2:1 profit. I have been beating myself up trying to make trades go in my favor and not accepting they will not work 50% or 60% of the time. I am also taking significantly bigger share size so my 2:1 winners outweigh the losers. If I miss the 2:1 by .10 or less and the stock pulls back I get out at my break even and not my original stop. This really helps a lot because if the stock could not give me .30 the first time it's not a pullback, it's a reversal. The other thing I do is if the stock blows past my 2:1 I'll move my stop to the 2:1 point basically locking in profit and let it all go until it looses momentum then get all out. When I was partialling out I rarely made 2:1's. For the first time in 5 mo's I am having more losers than winners and still profitable. The other thing I did was subscribe to TI premium with the Holly AI. Turns out she is a worse trader than me and still makes money! Her accuracy is only about 30% but she cuts her losers, let's her winners run and takes 15 trades a day. Her three or four winners out weigh the 12 losers. (Psst.. Don't waste your money, she's not worth it) Thanks Guys, time will tell.