Philosophical Question: How do you learn to lose/be wrong?

[Mike B 625]

After listening to Carlos’s Wednesday webinar, and the lifetime webinar this week, a couple of statements by Andrew and Carlos resonated with me as one of the triggers for my emotions getting out of control in making a mistake or being wrong.  

Carlos said, “My trading really turned around when I learned to lose,” and while talking about the air traffic controller’s background (50:00), Andrew said: “Some people have difficulty accepting a loss because they have to be right.”

My question for the group is how do you learn to lose or be wrong? There has to be another way besides blowing up your account or slowly bleeding your account dry.

[KurtLoeblich 101]

Mike,

It all comes down to position sizing.  You need to find that level that you can brush off the losses.  It doesn't matter if it's 5, 10, 20, or 100 (or more) dollars.  Find that HONEST level.  Next, you need to make sure that your max loss is an honest amount as well.  So, allow yourself 3 losses in a row all getting stopped out and add it up.  If that means that 30 dollars is your max loss of the day, so be it!  Once you start following your rules, you can slowly start to increase your share size.

I lost a LOT of money when I first started trading (over 30,000).  Once I got serious about educating myself and becoming a better trader (and no longer worrying about making money), I started to actually consistently make money.  After completing my 3 months or so in SIM (or whatever it takes to where you are green at the end of the month), I switched back to real.

I started trading with 25, 50, and 100 shares depending on the stock.  I allowed myself only to lose 10 dollars per trade.  If I hit 30 dollars loss on the day, I was done.  Slowly but surely, I stopped having max loss days.  Then, I started having green weeks.  Every week I finished green, I increased my share size by 25 percent.  After 4 months of this, I found my level I felt comfortable trading (my max share size is 2000 shares w/200 dollars max risk per trade.  I don't often take trades with this many shares, but I will allow myself to do it if I get a really good setup and entry).

I haven't had a red week in 5 months.  I haven't had a red day in 24 days.  But, whats more important than the consistent green is HONORING your rules regarding loss.  I could have 100 days green in a row and it wouldn't matter if I were to allow myself to lose 10,000 dollars because I let something run against me indefinitely.  

So, find your comfortable loss.  Stick with it.  Be a robot.  Stop thinking things will turn around.  You will never be right 100 percent of the time.  It's statistically impossible.  
 

[TommyK667 10]

Mike B, sounds like psychology is your biggest hindrance. I would suggest reading Brett Steenbarger's "The Daily Trading Coach". Andrew mentioned about it in chat last week, I've since bought it and read a few chapters and I'm really loving it. It's written really clearly and has 101 psychological lessons, that can be transcended beyond trading into everyday life. The instructions and descriptions are really clear, in my opinion it's like treating the mind like a muscle and he details the ways you can "train" it. Right off the bat the opening lessons already address the concerns you have in your weekly recaps, which I enjoy reading and learning from. Good luck! 

 

[Robert H 455]

You are the casino. Each trade you pay the price of admission equal to your max risk. You hope to return an amount greater than that. The objective is to focus on high probability setups and believe in their long term positive expectancy. Even the best setups can't achieve anywhere near 90% accuracy. 

Casinos don't care about the result of each hand or business day. They keep the doors open and patrons flowing in. As day traders we need to operate in this manner. Keep our accounts intact and take each setup independent of the last. Believe in the probabilities and you will learn to accept the losses as the cost of doing business.

Welcome to Mike B's Grand Resort. We hope you enjoy your stay!

[KurtLoeblich 101]

15 minutes ago, Robert H said:

You are the casino. Each trade you pay the price of admission equal to your max risk. You hope to return an amount greater than that. The objective is to focus on high probability setups and believe in their long term positive expectancy. Even the best setups can't achieve anywhere near 90% accuracy. 

Casinos don't care about the result of each hand or business day. They keep the doors open and patrons flowing in. As day traders we need to operate in this manner. Keep our accounts intact and take each setup independent of the last. Believe in the probabilities and you will learn to accept the losses as the cost of doing business.

Welcome to Mike B's Grand Resort. We hope you enjoy your stay!

And that's why I go back to it being all about making sure your initial risk while honing your strategies is a number you can consistently swallow.  We are assuming that someone has left the SIM with proper strategies and psychology in play but we also all know that trading with a real account is completely different than trading in SIM.  All of your learned psychology goes out the door once you have a P&L that actually matters.  It's necessary to start small and slowly work your way up.  Even now, if I have a 50 dollar or 100 dollar loss in a trade, I don't get upset.  That loss is the equivalent of a 10 dollar loss back when I first started in real. 

[Mike B 625]

5 hours ago, KurtLoeblich said:

Mike,

It all comes down to position sizing.  You need to find that level that you can brush off the losses.  It doesn't matter if it's 5, 10, 20, or 100 (or more) dollars.  Find that HONEST level.  Next, you need to make sure that your max loss is an honest amount as well.  So, allow yourself 3 losses in a row all getting stopped out and add it up.  If that means that 30 dollars is your max loss of the day, so be it!  Once you start following your rules, you can slowly start to increase your share size.

I lost a LOT of money when I first started trading (over 30,000).  Once I got serious about educating myself and becoming a better trader (and no longer worrying about making money), I started to actually consistently make money.  After completing my 3 months or so in SIM (or whatever it takes to where you are green at the end of the month), I switched back to real.

I started trading with 25, 50, and 100 shares depending on the stock.  I allowed myself only to lose 10 dollars per trade.  If I hit 30 dollars loss on the day, I was done.  Slowly but surely, I stopped having max loss days.  Then, I started having green weeks.  Every week I finished green, I increased my share size by 25 percent.  After 4 months of this, I found my level I felt comfortable trading (my max share size is 2000 shares w/200 dollars max risk per trade.  I don't often take trades with this many shares, but I will allow myself to do it if I get a really good setup and entry).

I haven't had a red week in 5 months.  I haven't had a red day in 24 days.  But, whats more important than the consistent green is HONORING your rules regarding loss.  I could have 100 days green in a row and it wouldn't matter if I were to allow myself to lose 10,000 dollars because I let something run against me indefinitely.  

So, find your comfortable loss.  Stick with it.  Be a robot.  Stop thinking things will turn around.  You will never be right 100 percent of the time.  It's statistically impossible.  
 

Kurt,

Thanks for the input, my first couple of weeks it was difficult finding the right trading size. I think I am at the right level, even though I am looking at changing how I take share size from a fixed size to a fixed $ risk amount. I liked Peter D's podcast this week on share sizing in relation to risk management. Robert H's analysis of thinking in terms of "R", also intrigued me, so I am looking at using fixed $ risk amount to determine shares that way I can make "R" a constant instead of a variable. One of the things I learned from breaking my rules on Friday is that I confirmed I am comfortable with the total risk per trade I am at now. (didn't break stop loss rule)

What are your thoughts on how you go from "Understanding the concept of probabilities" to "thinking in probabilities?"

[KurtLoeblich 101]

Mike,

Do you get disappointed when you get stopped out of a trade?

[Mike B 625]

6 hours ago, TommyK667 said:

Mike B, sounds like psychology is your biggest hindrance. I would suggest reading Brett Steenbarger's "The Daily Trading Coach". Andrew mentioned about it in chat last week, I've since bought it and read a few chapters and I'm really loving it. It's written really clearly and has 101 psychological lessons, that can be transcended beyond trading into everyday life. The instructions and descriptions are really clear, in my opinion it's like treating the mind like a muscle and he details the ways you can "train" it. Right off the bat the opening lessons already address the concerns you have in your weekly recaps, which I enjoy reading and learning from. Good luck! 

 

Tommy,

You are definitely right that psychology is my biggest hindrance right now. I am on the last few chapters of Andrew's second book, but I am going to take your advice on selecting "The Daily Trading Coach," as my next book. I am struggling with transitioning from understanding what to do, to actually doing what I know I should be doing.

[Mike B 625]

1 minute ago, KurtLoeblich said:

Mike,

Do you get disappointed when you get stopped out of a trade?

I was not disappointed when I got stopped out of the trade, I was disappointed that after I got stopped out that I let my focus go from my trading skills to focusing on a winning trade. My focus this month has been exclusively on trading a specific set of variables, and on Friday I did not do that. I actually rated that trade as a good trade overall, just entered too early. It was the two trades that followed that violated almost every trading rule I have. 

After analyzing the trade on the way home, I think because of my background I have a subconscious belief that I have to be "right", and that is what triggered me to go "Hulk". The trade was good and monetary loss was minimal, so to me it had to be something else.

[Mike B 625]

4 hours ago, Robert H said:

You are the casino. Each trade you pay the price of admission equal to your max risk. You hope to return an amount greater than that. The objective is to focus on high probability setups and believe in their long term positive expectancy. Even the best setups can't achieve anywhere near 90% accuracy. 

Casinos don't care about the result of each hand or business day. They keep the doors open and patrons flowing in. As day traders we need to operate in this manner. Keep our accounts intact and take each setup independent of the last. Believe in the probabilities and you will learn to accept the losses as the cost of doing business.

Welcome to Mike B's Grand Resort. We hope you enjoy your stay!

Robert,

Thanks, I could not agree more with you. I was watching Mark Douglas's "How to think like a Professional Trader (3 of 4)" on YouTube today, and his statement, " You may understand the concept of probabilities, but it does not mean that you think that way" really caught my attention today.

I know I understand the concept of probabilities; however, I also know I am not thinking in probabilities. 

What are your thoughts on how you go from "Understanding the concept of probabilities" to "thinking in probabilities?"

My thoughts are it starts with the desire to think in probabilities, and to reinforce that belief with energy. While simultaneously taking away energy from the belief that contradicts the new belief you want to have. The theory sounds great, I am just not sure how you put that in action. 

[Robert H 455]

No disrespect to Douglas (R.I.P.), but that whole energy into beliefs/attitudes was pseudoscience lol.

Dr. Brett Steenbarger's book is a practical self-help guide on how to develop good habits and break bad ones. It can be used to help instill the "functioning in probabilities" mindset.

Going back to what Kurt said: bring your share size down to a level which you are comfortable with the loss. For some people that may be 1 share.

Conduct Douglas' 20 trade exercise as many times as required to convince yourself that the math checks out. When you witness the probabilities working in your favor with 1 share, do it with 10. Then 20, then 50, 100, etc. You have to experience the powerful results for yourself in order to truly believe and function in probabilities.

I've had 10 trade win streaks. 12 trade losing streaks. None of this matters when we're in it for the long run. Last week I was green with less than 50% accuracy. Why? Because probabilities and risk management!

If I offered to play a game where you guess the outcome of a coin toss. Each time you're right, you get $2. Each time you're wrong, you pay me $1. Would you get upset each time you're wrong? No! You would tell me to hurry the heck up and flip the damn coin.

Take your setups and patterns with this mindset. Avoid everything else that doesn't meet your trade criteria. Let the beauty of mathematics play themselves out.

[Carlos M. 232]

Great advice from everyone. 

The best traders are those that know how to lose. Learn how to lose and accept it without affecting your next trade, your next day, next week or month. Is a marathon, no one single trade is that serious or important. Therefore, no one trade should be such a big loser in your series of trades.