Ray's Swing Trading Journal

[Ray 4]

My Swing trading has improved after reading Brain's book (several times) and learning from BBT community. Sharing my swing trades for feedback / ideas for next week:

Lesson from this week: 

• Too many ideas at play; focus only on a few ideas
• Increase size for main ideas

 

Thematic Swing ideas for next week - 7/20

1.       Space related industrial. All started weeks leading up to Space X launch.

2.       Cannabis – Technically looks like these stocks are forming a rounded bottom

 

Swing trade ideas for next week - 7/20

1.       CW: Curtiss – Wright (Aerospace / Defense) – Entry $92(below), Stop $88, Exit 1: $98, Exit 2: $100

2.       MAXR (Aerospace / Defense) – Entry $16(below), Stop $14.5, Exit: $19+

3.       H: Hyatt Hotels – Entry $50(below), Stop $45, Exit: $60+

4.       BA – Boeing - Entry $160’s (looking to enter in the low $160’s)

5.       MS – Morgan Stanley below $50

Swing trade in Green – Open trades (may trim next week):                   

Stocks:

1.       KHC (target $40+) – Kraft Heniz – best swing trade for this week

2.       SPCE (target $30+)

3.       MAR (target $100)

4.       PEP – Pepsi

5.       CRON – Cronos (Cannabis play)

6.       CGC – Canopy Growth Corp

7.       FCX – Freeport – Mcmoran

8.       WORK – Slack Technologies

9.       NDAQ – Nasdaq – with record number of trading; it should help the bottom line for exchanges.

Index:

1.       IBB – Nasdaq Biotech index; probability of trend to continue higher – 2 main reasons:

a.       Covid 19 Vaccine news

b.       Breakout above $125 (+/-). 10-year chart – consolidated from 2015 through 2020.

2.       IWM – (target $150+)

3.       XLB – materials index

4.       GLD – Gold index

5.       GDX – Gold miners index

6.       SLV (target $20+)

7.       XHB – Home builders index

Swing trade in Green - closed positions (booked profit):

Stocks:

1.       ALK – Alaska Air

2.       H – Hyatt

3.       HLT – Hilton Hotels

Index: SPXL

Swing trade – closed positions at breakeven:

1.       DIS - Disney

2.       SRNE – Sorrento Therapeutics

3.       SBUX – Starbucks

4.       INTC – Intel (closed position before earnings - booked little profit)

 

Swing trade – closed positions at a loss:

• BAC

 

Swing trade – in red (holding for now):

• FOUR – recent IPO; digital payments play. Took some of my profits from SQ (Square) and started a small position.

 

 

 

[OTC 27]

Ray,

Like your analysis on swing trading, I am new to DT but have been swing trading for 8+ years, we have some similar position (CGC, IWM, SPCE) and I have been swing trading BA with primary objective to get a feel for its daily activity and how it behaves over time, I had an estimated $168-$170 entry for....I would like to know why you have a target entry of low $160's, whats your thesis?

[Ray 4]

Opulent Trading Co, 

Thank you for reaching out. 

Regarding $BA: 

03/31 -- 06/02 --> Consolidation range $120(+/-) - $160(+/-)

06/03 --> Broke out on above avg volume and traded +$200 in the next few days

06/17 -- current --> Consolidation range $167(+/-) -- $190's - volume has steadily declined 

A retest of the lower $160's it broke out from would reignite interest and bring buyers (big money) back into the stock. I want to commit $ during the break out phase (either up or down) and not during consolidation. Many other names for consolidation i.e., chop, yoyo, up/down. 

Still learning from the lessons market is teaching me every day / week!

 

[OTC 27]

Ray,

You make a valid point, however BA is not likely to fall below the $169.72 support line unless COVID strikes hard again. If you can catch it during a sell off day whenever it makes a new low (wick) below the level I mentioned you will probably be in good shape for a move up the daily trading range. I think this because there is too much institutional money in this symbol and the MMs will defend their position at all cost. The topside seems limited to a $185 max in the near term. Money is moving sectors and airlines have once again lost bookings due to recent increases in COVID cases, furthermore I think money usually invested in airlines and BA is currently in the space travel sector (look at BAs declining volume in the chart below).  I do not say this antagonistically as I am long in $SAVE and a currently red -25% on that swing trade - poor decision on my part to keep it so soon in the COVID concern. That being said I am confident that $SAVE will be better off than some of the other airlines when this is all said and done as their daily burn rate is significantly lower and they have not taken much PPP money.

I like $BA and have been DT it for 10 days in a row, I think there is upside but I would be cautious with any airline related symbols. Notice the volume declining in BA. A few days ago I thought BA would break out to the upside from the asymmetrical triangle and it did, but it was a false BO and now is on the downtrend line. Today it made a nice reversal move to green and then closed in red (below the same trend line - red line image 2). I like BA for a swing on 7.15.20 (yellow box) but currently I am skeptical. Maybe it will hit your target price given its current weakness.

 

[Ray 4]

Opulent Trading Co, 

Like your chart analysis. Looks like your $169.72 support line is based on solid analysis. I will add it to my charts and look at $BA again. Thank you!

[OTC 27]

Ray,

Glad I could help, it helps me share info - quality or not. If not quality I ALWAYS accept constructive criticism and argument (aka discussion). Keep in touch and GL!

[Ray 4]

Mid Week Update - Week of July 20th 2020 

$SLV - Break out (I was long $SLV before the break out as posted starting of this week). My strategy explained in the chart below. 

[OTC 27]

Ray,

Nice analysis, I may look into this symbol if I can get out of my large share $IBM swing I entered yesterday. I would consider partialling at the gap fill (black line) but I like your aggressive target above $30. If you want to see my IBM trade or others go to "OTC's Day Trading Journal" forum post, I post my swing trades in there too - I should probably make two different posts.

[Ray 4]

Thank you Opulent Trading Co. So many ideas and strategies that are working on. My focus is on the idea/strategy that will give me the best R <> R. 

[Ray 4]

$GLD - Mid Week update. Adding $GLD on pullbacks. Analysis below. Trying to focus on simple analysis -- less indicators <> more info. Hopefully, this will keep me focused towards better R <> R. 

[Ray 4]

$IBB - Mid Week update. 7/20/2020 - $IBB up trend still in tact 

[OTC 27]

Ray,

Use etf.com (https://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fund-flows-tool) to look at how BIG money shifts between ETFs, this may help you select your shorter term winners on swings. i.e. Last week ~$8B shifted to $SPY and $IWM, at the same time ~$2B left QQQ.

[Ray 4]

Awesome resource! Thank you!! On my charts I see $QQQ levitating above 9MA on the weekly. Weekly candles like to hug 9MA and move with it. I didn't start a long position in $QQQ because of that reason. It's amazing how my analysis, your analysis and etf funds flow all come together - even tough we are looking at different stats. 

[Ray 4]

Mid Week update. 7/20/2020 $KHC -- Kraft Heniz. 

[OTC 27]

I tried a swing on CPB Campbell Soup and it was like watching the grass grow, I think this symbol is similar (gut but baseless speculation). Also look at how the volume typically comes in on downward moves, I do not like this one at all - call it bad juju but my intuition has served me well over the years. Take a look at VXRT and tell me your thoughts. I had it for a long at $8 dollars and did not take it and now its at $14-$16.  Also take a look at WKHS as the next EV giant in the small, short distance delivery trucking. I had NKLA at $15 and sold at $30, one month later it went to $90 ( from $1 to $30 it traded as VTIQ --SPAC symbol.