Zack Zarr

Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Here is a snapshot of the weekly analysis based on October 2nd, 2018 COT (Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures) reports.  More trade updates will come in the following post. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there.  If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Here are some possible trades based on the COT reports of September 25th, 2018. The trades are based on some lower timeframes for short term profits. The big picture trades are setting up in the bigger timeframes and what I explained in the COT analysis posted here. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Here are some possible trades based on the COT reports of September 18th, 2018. The trades are based on some lower timeframes for short term profits. The big picture trades are setting up in the bigger timeframes and what I explained in the COT analysis posted here. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Here is a snapshot of the weekly analysis based on September 11th, 2018 COT (Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures) reports. Trade ideas based on these analysis are posted here. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here AUDUSD Long idea: not triggered Short idea: short running at +15pips EURUSD Long idea: 3 partial longs running at +226, +97 & +69 pips Short idea: partial short closed at BE; partial short running at +96 pips GBPUSD Long idea: 2 partial longs running at +328 & +279 pips Short idea: short running at +61 pips Gold Long idea: 2 partial longs running at +390 & +616 pips Short idea: Partial running at +1747 pips with SL BE USDCHF Long idea: long running at +10 pips Short idea: partial short running at +78 pips For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

More EURO shorts were closed this week increasing the net longs. Similar happened to GBP, short profit taking in the past week. NZD long exposure increased by 4% this week. Lots of activity in AUD but the net remained unchanged. USDCHF longs are being closed for the second week. Lots of Oil longs were closed this week. Gold has seen some short closing activity this past week too that takes it off the record exposures we have seen over the past 10 years. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Here are some possible trades based on the COT reports of September 4th, 2018. The trades are based on some lower timeframes for short term profits. The big picture trades are setting up in the bigger timeframes and what I explained in the COT analysis posted here. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here AUDUSD Long idea: exited long at BE; Stopped (2nd long) at -47 pips Short idea: not triggered EURUSD Long idea: Partial exit at + 94 pips; 3 partial longs running with BE SL Short idea: Partial exit at +176 and +118 pips; partial running with BE SL GBPUSD Long idea: Long partially running with + 176 pips; Long with + 130 pips running; Long stopped at -45 pips Short idea: Stopped out -35 pips Gold Long idea: Partial running at +1152 pips; long running +663 with BE SL Short idea: Partial exit at +2150 pips; Partial running at +1545 pips with SL BE USDCHF Long idea: Not triggered Short idea: partial exit at +89 pips; partial running at +45 pips with BE SL For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

EUR Large Specs shorts and longs decreased significantly but kept the long exposure to 49%. GBP short added so the long exposure dropped again back to 30%. AUD and NZD both seeing second week of long exposure increase. USDCAD longs saw another drop to 63% after 65% last week. USDJPY saw a small incrase in long exposure after big shift from 69% to 65% long exposure last week. USDCHF does not show the results of the big drop that happened after Tuesday. Oil shows a big jump in longs. Gold shows some sign of short profit taking after record high levels seen last week. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here COT data will be released shorty at 12:30 EST so stay tuned for more updates. AUDUSD Long idea: exited partial at +110 pips; exited partial at BE Short idea: not triggered EURUSD Long idea: Partial exit at +270 and +320 pips; partial running with BE SL Short idea: Running with +78 and +130 pips GBPUSD Long idea: Partial exit at +180 and +280 pips; partial running with BE SL Short idea: Stopped out with +6 pips, others not triggered Gold Long idea: Partial exit at +2388 pips; partial running with BE SL Short idea: Running at +1273 pips USDCHF Long idea: Stopped out at -47 pips Short idea: Not triggered For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

EUR shorts added more over the past week and poke deeper into net short territory. More GBP shorts were added by large speculators. These are relatively large numbers but they managed to keep exposure to 33% long. AUD and NZD are seeing some stability in long exposures. Not much action going on in this week's data for NZD and NZD. Perhaps AUD data show up next week after all those political turmoil. USDCAD longs are stable at 65% exposure for the second week now. USDJP saw a big shift from 69% to 65% long exposure. Oil also has shown some serious action in the short direction. long exposure dropped 3% on oil. Gold still hitting all-time high record numbers in every metric by large speculators and commercials. Commercial traders have never been this long. Maybe that' what triggered the strong move up in Gold since yesterday. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Update on the trade ideas based on the analysis of COT reports last week which were posted here and the trade ideas posted here COT data will be released shorty at 12:30 EST so stay tuned for more updates. AUDUSD Long idea: +160 pips Short idea: not triggered EURUSD Long idea: +260 pips Short idea: either stopped at BE or run with ~40 pips SL GBPUSD Long idea: +178 pips Short idea: + 80 pips , SL can be moved to BE Gold Long idea: +$20 or 2,000 pips Short idea: not triggered For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Here is a snapshot of the weekly analysis based on August 14th, 2018 COT (Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures) reports. More trade updates will come in the following post. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

EUR shorts are their highest level over the past year and Large Speculators are now Net Short for the first time since May 2017. NZD traders don't show significant changes but AUD longs increased so that the long exposure jumped 3%. CAD keeps showing the strength in continuation of last week. Again, Gold saw the most important change,. This is the first time in history of COT reports (at least as far as I my data goes, that is since 2007) that Large Speculators are Net short and long exposure is just below 50%. Another important factor is the Commercials long exposure which has been capped to 49% for as far as the data goes. Note that the data comes from the end of Tuesday and the reversal might have already started judging by the price action since Thursday. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Aug 07 2018 COT Data Analysis Data analysis of the COT reports (Legacy, Disaggregated) shows Gold is hitting many extreme levels. Here is the charts with COT data overlays. Summary: Data from COT-Legacy reports shows Gold is hitting historical level on multiple metrics. Long exposure % is now at the lowest ever Relative long and short exposure numbers are also at 100% Total short contracts is at the all-time-high level Data from COT- Disaggregated reports shows Gold is hitting historical level Money Managers long exposure % at the lowest ever, below the past historical low Money Managers total short contracts is at the all-time-high level Net positions for large speculators (non-commercials) vs. commercials Large Specs are at their lowest net long Commercials are near their lowest net short Net positions of Money Managers/Other Reportables and Producers Money Managers at lowest net long ever Producers and Other Rep near highest net long Conclusion: there will be a reversal coming very soon. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Another week of EUR and GBP selling. EUR shorts are their highest level over the past year. AUD and NZD don't show significant changes but wait until the next week data, because the real change happened after Tuesday! CAD shows some strength and now USDCAD shorts are starting to build up. Biggest change is in the GOLD. Now we reached a historical long exposure % almost never seen before. And that is due to the largest short position EVER, by non-commercial traders. And these extreme levels do not sustain for very long. Reversal is coming. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

Here is a snapshot of the weekly analysis based on July 24th, 2018 COT (Legacy, Traders in Financial Futures) reports. More trade updates will come in the following post. For more information on this type of analysis check out the previous posts in the education section of the forum here, here, and there. Create a FREE account to get access to all previous weekly analysis and educational materials using the registration form found in this page. If you want to discuss further and clarify things, please send me a message to [email protected]  Zack

A Deep Dive into Commitment of Traders Data Analysis- Part 1 It has been while since the last post because I have been putting some of my data analysis techniques together in a format presentable here. As we saw in the previous post, the COT report is the ONLY source of data directly coming from the institutional traders. Beside the charts, COT is the major source of information I use on a weekly basis. Remember, news and hyped prices are only opportunities for the big players to fill their orders and nothing more. It is very rare that a news release changes the direction of institutions’ mindset. Rare, but not impossible. In this game of probability, I always go with the high probability trades not a single rare occasion. How do I organize the data? Short answer, in Excel. At the end of each week on Friday afternoon, I compile the data released on CFTC website in my excel template because it is the easiest way for me to see the long term directions and decision making points in time. Below is snapshot of what I started with about 6-7 years ago. In short, I simply copied and pasted the data from the CFTC website for each currency and performed some basic analysis on them. In particular, I was tracking what the non-commercial traders were doing each week. One of the factors I was interested in was the percentage of short and long positions, the exposure %. Its simple calculation is as follows: Long% = Long / (Long+Short) x 100 Short% = 100 – Long% I was looking for extreme points where these traders had the maximum or minimum exposure for over a period of time like the past year, or 2 years. I will discuss more about what time period to look at in later posts. Later on, I found easier ways to display my data using built-in excel features. I had to take such steps because looking at multiple data series for different pairs and two different formats (legacy vs. TFF format) was tiring. The current format I have on my excel is not that different from the old one except there are more coloring based on the historical values of the positions and extreme points in position sizing. Figure below is the most recent format that I have been using for few years now. I have not implemented more sophisticated excel features because I simply don’t need to. Besides, I have put my efforts on some time series coding on the charts directly. That will come in the coming posts. It looks nicer, in my opinion. Now, instead of looking for extreme exposure and position data, the color coding allows me to see them much faster. The legend shows how I applied my color coding. The smallest number in a range gets the green and the highest values gets the red. Numbers in between the two take a gradient color with white being right at the middle. Being too green or too red is extreme! Net positions! The net position number is the one you see in most websites that report the COT data in a graphical right below their charts. See this one for example https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/E6*0 https://cotbase.com/ My personal experience with the net positions has not been satisfactory. For some reason, I want to see the actual long and short contracts rather than the net. I can get a better vision of what the traders did over the week using their actual long and short position changes. For that reason, you see me often not paying too much attention to the net positions. I thought I should clarify this here. Example of Analysis Figure below shows a snapshot of the EURUSD chart and the tabulated COT data during the year 2015. I have highlighted few datapoints on the chart and their corresponding number of short positions held by the institutional traders. Just tracking the short positions, we can see that during each swing low, the number of shorts has consistently decreased. The shading of the absolute short positions and the exposure % suggests that these traders where at extremely high short exposure prior to March 17th. Over the next few months, they have been taking profit off their short positions which is why the number was decreasing. Seeing this, looking for a long trade is not a bad idea. And as you can see, after the Jul 21st, the previous high was broken. The long trade after the May 26th or Jul 21st data would have been a really good trade. Another insight: since the Dec 2014, they have been adding to their shorts as the price was going down. Now, they are not adding shorts during each period that the price goes down. The is a change in behavior. And a SIGNAL. Please note that this is only an example of using one parameter to see into the mindset of the big players. The more we analyze the numbers including the % exposures and long positions, the better we understand their trades. Eventually, we want to trade with them. The data is delayed (and you hear everyone saying that about the COT reports), but these traders are also SLOW! It took them 5 months to get rid of 72,000 short contracts each worth EUR 125,000. How to survive the turmoil The process of decision making after you figure out some pattern in the data is still complex. Here, I provide some key notes that helps you get better entry points and also test out your analysis in real time. These are my experience over the years and of course, every situation demands its own decision making steps which depends on the market dynamics at the time. Once you see a pattern in the data, benefiting from it is a matter of how you place your orders. There will be ups and downs before the giants make their final decisions so:ALWAYS split your orders into smaller portions.Test out the idea with smaller orders and try to think as If you are working with the big players.Use the time of news to your advantage.There will be times when all your orders are in negative, but you need to learn to trust the data. You will build a sense of how to spread out your orders to get the best price for yourself.Mark up your supply and demand zones. Make sure you do that using at least three timeframes.These big players report their positions on weekly basis so allow yourself at least a week to test the idea and observe what they have done in the past week.Also remember, you are only seeing the data up until Tuesday so what they did in the three days after that day is not in your report. But you can always go back to the charts and observe the price action. Depending on the nature of each institutional trader’s behavior, you will learn if they will be adding shorts on the way up or down. Similar for the long positions. Overall, this is a quick review of your journey into the realm of data analysis and why you need to understand the positioning of the big players in the market. As I have been using these data series for a long time, I feel my analysis will be incomplete without them. More of this sort of data analysis will come. If you need further information or want to clarify something, please do not hesitate to drop me a message at [email protected] Fore access to more advanced materials and Forex Topics, please sign up below the Forex Trading page: https://www.bearbulltraders.com/forex-trading/ Zack

Best Times to Trade Forex Forex market is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. So, does that mean you can trade forex throughout the day, wherever in the world you are? The answer is “it depends”! It all depends on your style of trading. For a long term trader, the time od the day is irrelevant. Long term forex trades, who are looking for days and weeks of building their positions, the time of the day is not important. However, the times of high volatility serves them the benefit of being able to fill their orders at the price they want, and not at the price market forces them. In contrast, short term traders are heavily relying on the time of the day. Why? For this type of trading, high volatility in the market is a must. Another important factor in short term forex trading is the spread. During the times of low volatility, the spread become wider because brokers always have to make money from your trades! So, when the market is volatile? This image demonstrates a snapshot of major forex markets around the word with their open and close times in both GMT and EST time zones. As one can imagine, the times of overlap are best for ensuring high volatility and low spreads. However, depending on the time of the day, some pairs might be preferred over others. This is the case during the Asian session when the JPY, AUD and NZD pairs are most active. During the London session, all the pairs are tradable. This is due to the big portion of the London market in the entire forex market (about 37% of the entire market). To put in perspective, New York and Tokyo are responsible for 17% and 6% of the overall market share. So, essentially sticking to the London session can be a good choice for starters. The most volatile session is the overlap of the two biggest markets, London and New York. This the most volatile with lowest spread during the day. So, if you are planning to start short term trading in the forex market, pay attention to these times of overlaps to take advantage of the low spreads. Another important factor impacting the volatility is the economic news. These are large central banks decisions on the rates, inflation reports, job reports, etc. While the volatility is extremely high during the news release, it does not mean they are tradable in terms of short term trading. The spike in the volatility comes with the large spreads in all the pairs involved and affected. This is also to ensure the brokers make their share of profit during these times. This is more explained in the structure of forex market in our education page as well as our book. You can find the information regarding the exact time of these news release, the expected numbers and previous release number in many forex news outlets. Common outlets that I use on my PC and mobile are listed below: https://www.forexfactory.com/ https://www.myfxbook.com/en/forex-economic-calendar https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar Zack

Institution Footprints Supply and Demand is the only force in the market, everything else is the noise. We buy “stuff” on a regular basis in our daily lives. Things we need and things we think we need. (George Carlin’s description of “stuff” is much better, so I stop here). The price of anything we purchase, from our grocery to our iPhone or house, is determined by the fundamentals of supply and demand. A bottle of coke is $2.50 because we are willing to pay $2.50. If 70% of population decides not to pay that much for the coke, then the supplier must decrease the price until the customers come back and buy it. An iPhoneX is $1,000 because we are willing to pay that much for it. If more people want to buy it and Apple cannot increase their production capacity, then the price would have to go up. Because there is demand for it. Anyhow, our lives are affected by this single rule of economics so why shouldn’t it be the single rule in trading? Trading sits at the extremity of the world we live in where everything has a price. There are no human morality principles in this part of the world. You cannot ask a favor from your broker, imagine this conversation: You to your broker: Could you do me a favor, close my order at breakeven, I got stuck cleaning the bath tub and forgot to move my stoploss there. I owe you one buddy! In the case of an institutional trader, supply and demand is THE ONLY game in town. They must buy or sell at the best price or else they lose money. And they NEVER lose! If an institution was willing to pay for an instrument, a stock or currency pair, at a certain price level, what makes them stop doing it again next time? As I mentioned in previous posts, the only signal you get from institutions is their big orders flooding the market. And you see it on the chart as big body candles similar to what you see here: This is different way of looking at a chart, there is not green/red or white/black coloring of the normal candlestick charts. I programmed the chart so that it only shows the giant body candles (it’s a code, so there are always flaws). What if you always see the chart this way. What if you have never ever seen the conventional type of chart and this is the first candlestick chart you see in your life. I can assure you that you would think different than 99% of traders in the forex market. Does that mean you would think as an institutional trader? No! But, you are one level closer to their game than the rest of retail traders. In my opinion, these large body candles are the RESULTS of big players deciding to move the market in a particular direction. Whether it is a direction of their interest or not, is something for future posts. My point here is that you and I, and every single trader in our community all together would not be able to create such a move in the forex market. The key concept here is PROBABILITY! It is more probable that the giant candles have been create by the institutions rather than retail traders. So, if you know where an institutional decision has been made, you know where they might make similar decision again. That is the basics of finding the institutional footprints but, there is more to it. My book covers these concepts in more detail and I plan to provide more insights here on our community platform. So, stay tuned and communicate your questions here. I’m more than happy to help in any way I can. Fore access to more advanced materials and Forex Topics, please sign up below the Forex Trading page: https://www.bearbulltraders.com/forex-trading/ Zack

Short vs. Long Term Forex Trading There are two general styles of forex trading, which are distinguished by their time periods: short term trading (similar to day trading and scalping) and long term trading (similar to swing trading or position trading). For someone new to trading who has only heard about the wall street in the movies or news, the idea of trading most likely is something close to the long term trading style. This style of trading includes buying or selling a security, stock, or a currency pair over a relatively extended period of time. What is a relatively extended period? It depends. For a stock, a swing trade could take a few hours, days and even months. The goal is to benefit from the long-term swings in the price without worrying too much about the noises in the minute charts. A swing trader would open a trade with a defined stop loss appropriate to the trade timeframe. They would perhaps check on the status of the trade once a day and analyze the market sentiment. In the case of a good opportunity, they could add to their position to maximize profit. They would eventually exit the trade once they have made their target profit. In the forex, swing or long term trading could expand from 30 minutes to hours and few days. There is also another category of traders with this style who are “position traders”. They add to their position along the way and watch the market carefully to extend their profit for months or even as long as a year. In contrast to the first style, day trading or short term trading has different implications. A big portion of BearBullTraders community are focused on day trading in stocks and many useful materials could be found in our community online platform. In forex, short term trading has a similar definition. Based on the time of the day, such as London market, New York market or Tokyo market, forex traders choose to trade only in these volatile sessions. They often open and close trades within few minutes (usually less than an hour). A subcategory of the day trading style is “scalping”. Scalpers are those who benefit from any small movement in the price action. They enter and exit a trade within seconds and at most a few minutes. This style of trading requires a large amount of capital or leverage, besides uninterrupted presence in front of the trading station. Both styles of trading have their own pros and cons. I trade both styles and try to post my ideas in the forex trade ideas section of our forum. My personal preference is long term trading because it matches my life style and requires less intense and spread out attention. Fore access to more advanced materials and Forex Topics, please sign up below the Forex Trading page: https://www.bearbulltraders.com/forex-trading/ Zack