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  1. 2 points
    Please use this thread to post your questions before and after the Success Webinar! Pierce And Fail: Why Lack Of Conviction Leads To Reversals Ever notice how strong reversals tend to happen in a similar pattern? Have you ever wanted to be first in line for a big move off the lows and highs? Some of the best reversals tend to happen in a predictable way: a break of a level that fails and returns back to the starting price. These form our criteria for the most aggressive setups: The Pierce and Fail. I’ll explain how to find these setups, how to enter a position, and how to manage once you’re in the trade for maximizing the potential. Date : Tues, Oct 27, 2020 Time : 8:00 PM ET Location : Webinar Room (Lifetime Members only)
  2. 1 point
    Hi Dellen, you an follow this post too
  3. 1 point
    Updated: 8/8/2019 @ 12:44pm (PST) Finally out of the alpha stage and releasing this to the community, I've been using it with success. Because I had to do some musical chairs with memory I made a configuration utility as the script itself is very ugly. This is more of a BETA release for this, so if anyone wants to try this out in SIM and let me know if you have any issues with the configuration sheet or the hotkeys themselves. It's based on the work started by @fjmocke here: https://forums.bearbulltraders.com/topic/469-das-calculate-shares-based-on-account-risk/ . What it is: It's a hotkey command script that can be used to dynamically alter the share total based on: Available Buying Power (capital) Stop Location (Risk) % Account Risk OR Fixed Dollar Amount The script includes purchase power protection and won't send an order that you can not afford, it does this by calculating two factors: A - Shares You Can Afford B - Shares at Risk Parameter (e.g. $25,000 account equity, 1% risk = $250 risk, $250 * a stop distance of .10 = 2500 shares) min{A,B} = 0.5(A + B - | A - B | ) But, why male models? I just told you. /Zoolander reference You'd use this to calculate your share total based on what you're willing to risk. So instead of blindly throwing 500 shares at every setup, you can dynamically alter risked amount based on the per-trade setup. I use it on my StreamDeck (will also release the icon packs soon) with modifiers of 100%, 75%, 50%, and 25%. 100% is the A-Plus setups I see, those I have HIGH confidence in. Alternatively, if a stock has a large spread or is low-float, I may only use the 25% modifier key for those. Instructions for Configuration: Go to this link: V2.1: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1TJy7jRHhdMYGyyfKbbYd3M7j6bqxgeoy ^^ Recommend latest DAS version of 5.4.3.0. Requires DAS version 5.2.0.34 or above (current BETA branch as of 11/19/2018) for the physical stop portion to work. If you don't use the physical stop, you don't have to worry about it. NOTE: Thoroughly test in SIM to make sure it's doing what you expect it to do. Choose: Download the ZIP file and unzip to where you want. On "Setup & Instructions" configure your settings. Account Leverage (default for DAS is 4), this is the margin your broker gives you. Some off-shores give 6. It needs to match what is configured in DAS for proper calculations. Max Account Risk %. This is the maximum percent of equity you're willing to risk on every trade (default is 1%). You can always risk lower (more on that later). % of Total Buying Power. If you don't want to calculate based on the total buying power of 100%, you can set this to a lower percentage (example: 100,000 buying power with 60% here equals $60,000 maximum position size) Route. LIMIT, MARKET, SMRTL. Default is LIMIT. Order Bid/Ask Offset. This is the offset you use when you send the price for order, e.g. "Ask + 0.05" (meaning fill me up to 5 cents above ask) Time in Force. Default: Day+ Default Shares. This is the amount of shares you want to set as the DEFAULT SHARES for all trades (e.g. when you click a Symbol and it loads, this is the share total). You can see why this is here in the technical breakdown section below. Minimum Stop Buffer. This is an offset to the stop distance. If you set this to 0.05, it'll add 5 cents to the stop distance calculation (so if your stop distance is 0.05, it'll be calculated on 0.10). Switch to the "Hotkeys" tab. Choose your preferred style. % Risk of Equity (Dynamic) or Fixed Price (e.g. $150 risk). %Equity Risk: Use the drop down to select what you want the value to be % equity. NOTE: This is a modifier AFTER your account risk maximum %. So if you have 1% account risk, and set this to 50%, your effective account risk is 0.005 --> 0.5%. $ Fixed: Use the drop down to select what you want the value to be for dollar risk. Select "long" or "short" to flip the script's direction. Click the cell that contains the start of the command (E column) and Ctrl + C (copy). Paste it into DAS. It should look like a sample command below. Instructions for Usage: First, you must have "Double Click to Trade" turned on in Chart, Right-Click --> Configure --> Settings --> Double-click to trade. Double click the chart where you want to set a mental stop (it does not place a stop order, you can always put one in after). Hit your configured hotkey. Sample Scripts: LONG: DefShare=BP*0.98; Share=DefShare*0.25* Price * 0.01; Price = Ask - Price + 0.02;SShare = Share / Price; Share = DefShare - SShare; DefShare = DefShare + SShare; SShare = Share; SShare = DefShare - SShare; Share = 0.5 * SShare; TogSShare; ROUTE =LIMIT; Price = Ask + 0.05; TIF=DAY+; BUY=Send; DefShare = 500; SHORT: DefShare=BP*0.98; Share=DefShare*0.25* Price * 0.01; Price = Price - Bid + 0.02;SShare = Share / Price; Share = DefShare - SShare; DefShare = DefShare + SShare; SShare = Share; SShare = DefShare - SShare; Share = 0.5 * SShare; TogSShare; ROUTE =LIMIT; Price = Bid - 0.05; TIF=DAY+; SELL=Send; DefShare = 500; Technical Breakdown: DAS has basic scripting. Montage commands have access to very few read/write variables, basic operations, and only operators of addition, subtraction, division, and multiplication. To do this calculation we need additional operators (min function, and absolute function) and more memory for storage of variables. This command gets around these limitations by using user-writeable areas of memory in the program. Since DAS is written in the C++ language (from what I can tell), it's strict on what can be done in these existing memory locations. The hotkey uses the following items (plus the usual Price -- FLOAT): (Assumptions on Datatypes) DefShare -- INT (Used as a temporary variable for storage) SShare -- Unsigned INT (Behaves like an Unsigned INT in certain situations. Used as a temporary variable for storage) Share -- INT (Used as a temporary variable for storage) With the 3 INT variables, objects are moved around in memory so that we can calculate and compare with our variable limitation (be much easier if we could assign our own). To facilitate the ABS() function, we use a trick --> When a negative value is placed into an Unsigned INT it loses it's sign (thus, it becomes a POSITIVE value in memory). A more detailed technical breakdown (step by step) is located in the Configuration spreadsheet up above. Future Enhancements: If need be, I can make a step-by-step video of this entire process. I have a version that uses an AutoHotKey macro to drop a line at the stop location, I can upload that as well if people want it. ^^ Update, I discontinued this as it was too cumbersome. You had to have two sets of hotkeys for each command. I may someday revisit it if I can build out a configuration tool for it. TLDR: It does the math for you so you can risk a known amount (% or $) based on your per-trade risk position (stop distance). And yes, I'm a bit of a tech nerd. Also, longest post .. ever. Would not read again, 0/5 stars. --- KNOWN ISSUES: %Account Risk gets smaller and smaller when subsequent open positions Reason: No Equity variable, we reverse calculate equity using Buying Power. On subsequent positions, the % (e.g. 1%) calculation will be based on the available buying power and NOT the account equity. Workaround: Precalculate the %risk and use it for the $risk versions. So 1% of $25,000 equity equals $250. SSR rejection on LONG position when scaling out; rejection message (e.g. "Short marketable limit order disable due to SSR!") if using the automatic STOP trigger. Reason: DAS calculates that the position will drop below the open stop order position and reject as this can cause the position to "flip" if it was triggered. Workaround: Have a hotkey to clear the open orders (CXL ALLSYMB), clear it, scale the position (e.g. 25%). Either replace the stop or switch to a mental stop. Alternatively, you can add "CXL ALLSYMB;" to the front of the scale-out hotkeys. You just have to be cognizant to replace the stop order. Equated position size if very small (e.g. 4 or 5 shares when expected is hundreds). Reason: Wrong side was used for the order. E.g. a long hotkey is used when trying to go short. -or- Stop Distance was calculated to be a negative value (clicked too close to current price). Workaround: Be cognizant of the hotkeys used and the stop distance clicked. Clicking too close (a really tight stop) can be very dangerous if you do it inadvertently. TriggerOrder for automatic STOP placement not being sent (no stop order placed). Reason: Montage is not set to a style that doesn't allow TriggerOrder input. Styles not compatible are: Default [DAS's, if you changed it], Basic, OCO, Option, Full Fix: Use a style that is compatible, they are: Stop Order, Detail, Trigger -- I recommended using the "Stop Order" montage style. To change this, right click the montage area around where you'd enter a price and select Style --> Your Choice. --- UPDATES: 10/17/2018 - Added v.1.1 link, you'd need to use the new version to change anything. - General cleanup of the script. Added instructions for the IB issue (discussed in this thread) - NEW FEATURE: Added a new section to the Hotkeys sheet, it will now create a set up for Dynamic Scale-In hotkey commands. You'd use these by setting a scale value (say you want an additional 50% of your current position size). The hotkey will calculate the maximum share you can afford (how much you can afford at the moment) and the scale value, choosing to take the least amount. So if your current position is 1500 shares (@ $50.00) and you want to scale in at 50% your current position, it'd check if you can afford an additional 750 shares, if you can't, it'll buy the maximum you can afford. For this example, you can't afford it (if Buying Power is 100k), so it'd buy roughly $25k worth (500 shares). - CLEANUP: Cleaned up the $Dollar Risk version and removed unnecessary steps. Don't really need to replace yours if they exist, but worth noting. 10/30/2018 - Added @Michael P's suggested fixes for Excel. Configuration tool should now work in both Sheets and Excel. - NOTICE: This was a configuration tool change, no changes were made to the hotkey scripts, so no need to change any existing hotkeys. 11/19/2018 - Shortened some of the commands so we don't hit any hotkey character limit, makes them less readable, but shorter. Couldn't get them low enough to fit the montage buttons though (although removing the portions for the buying power rejection protection would likely do it). - Added a section for SELL/COVER buttons for people who just need to create those. E.g. "Sell 25% position" or "Sell 33% position". - Added @Robert H's stop suggestion. New fields on the setup page for enabling physical stops. If enabled, it'll place a MARKET or LIMIT (settings included) trigger order to go into the market once the initial order is fulfilled, these are placed at the location you double-clicked on the chart. 11/20/2018 - Added a stop-order setting to set an additional buffer for the stop price (for those that want to include or exclude the double-clicked price). - Added conditional formatting to subdue the stop settings that aren't required if you disable sending a physical stop into the market. 12/10/2018 - Added a known issues section to this post and the spreadsheet (for when a new version goes up). 12/12/2018 - Updated known issues section to include the "Montage Style" issue for TriggerOrders. 12/13/2018 - Updated to new version 1.46. Fixed a bug in the Trigger Order script which could cause it to not be interpreted by DAS's command parser on certain user settings. - Added "modifier" extra hotkeys. See instructions next to these on how to use them. - - - Set Stop to Breakeven - Long or Short - Stop Limit or Stop Market (cancels any pending orders for SYMB) - - - Set Stop to Breakeven - Bidirectional - Stop Market (cancels any pending orders for SYMB) - - - Stop - Update Price - Long or Short - Stop Limit or Stop Market (cancels pending orders, double click chart where you want stop before firing hotkey) - - - Stop - Update Price - Bidirectional - Stop Market (cancels pending orders, double click chart where you want stop before firing hotkey) - - - Stop - Update Position - Long or Short - Stop Limit or Stop Market - Replace (requires you double-click the original stop in the Orders window) - - - Stop - Update Position - Bidirectional - Stop Market Orders Only - Replace (requires you double-click the original stop in the Orders window). 8/8/2019 - New version 2.0, download the .zip file and unzip it. - Fixed an issue with some hotkey configurations that may have caused them to be inaccurate in vary rare situations. Recommend recreating your hotkeys in this new version, just to be sure. - Added Profit Target hotkeys. - Added % Scale-In Hotkeys - Added $ Risk Scale-In Hotkeys - Added Short-SSR to Long/Short dropdown for SSR hotkeys (DAS Simulator) - Added Range Order hotkeys - Added Y-Margin Scale Increase hotkey, Y-Margin Decrease, and Y-Margin Reset - Added new sheet "Example - Equity%" and "Example - $Risk" to give a more workflow outlook on what is happening. - Included a ScaleOut worksheet to manually simulate what different scale percentages / scenarios look like (instructions will be in the video). ALSO: Video is done and rendering, I think it comes in at 45minutes with 3.4gigs (4k), so it'll need to be optimized before I upload it to YouTube. Will try to do it today and will update this when done. 9/10/2019 - New version 2.1 released. Just general clean up (UI) and bug fixes. - FIXED: Issue with the Scale-In $Risk hotkeys. - FIXED: Issue with the Stop Update Price long and short hotkeys> ^^ If you use either of those, please regenerate them and replace in your DAS to avoid issues. UPDATES: The majority of this side project is completed and besides a few requests I have in with DAS developers to optimize a few things, out of any major bugs or improved scripting features, I'd say this is about done. I'll provide any edge-case support as need, but I want to move on to other BBT-community projects. So what do I have cookin' for you guys, gals, and cat? You'll see a glimpse in the video of an early prototype (buggy! I programmed that in a few hours, so bugs are expected) of a DAS calculator side program. The newer version (need to finish the UI) will incorporate a lot more in ways of tools for you, including automatically calculating changes without a hotkey intervention. It also allows you to mass-process trade log .csv files you may have exported and compile it into Excel or .CSV for import into other programs. Configuration is drag/drop friendly, so rearranging your columns is as easy as click and holding. I'm also going to shift my attention to finishing my ORB-strategy research. Right now, my datapool encompasses 15000 news article, gaplists for 2011-2019, and 1second data for stocks in that range. It's a data store of roughly 80 gigs. The idea is to test for hidden signals we may not see that can indicate a potential direction of an ORB strategy (if no rare outside influence occurs, like a terrorist attack) by leveraging a consortium of machine learning algorithms to give us a higher probability of success for each day. Depending how the research works out, the end product would likely be a probability predictor for each day. I'll share the research results with the community and may incorporate some other tests as well. VIDEO: Ok, so I may have gone down an editing rabbit hole and that took longer than expected. The videos are up, came in quite long so I chunked it down. Sorry it's a tad scattered and not one-linear cohesive unit, but I tried to mark it up as best as possible. Part 1 - Config / Math - https://youtu.be/YrRrydwGyRY Part 2 - Setup, Quick Examples, Tips - https://youtu.be/pXLlWF7T6hw Part 3 - Sim Trade Example - https://youtu.be/SO9UhJh4dTc Bonus 1 - Scale/Price Excel Calc - https://youtu.be/KTr_iJ2p0TU Bonus Tips - https://youtu.be/sNHXFMoia7A
  4. 1 point
    Thanks. This is really helpful.
  5. 1 point
    From CMEG: Please be advised that there were some changes to the Route name on the platform. The LAMP/SMART route has been replaced by LAMPOST/PDQ route. If you have any other questions, please call us at 833-445-9086 or send an email to [email protected]
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    *Update* Still trading, just back in SIM for a bit. I'm taking some of the pressure off, and also taking a break from the videos. I shall return.
  8. 1 point
    Hi fellow traders. I would like to share with anyone who may find this useful or perhaps provide a helpful ‘head start’ into the world of Hot Keys. When I began to learn day trading and the importance of using hot keys, I created an editable PDF file which I would refine and develop as my trading progressed. To this day I still refer back to this chart as a constant reminder of my complex hot-key layout. One very nice thing about the PDF I am providing here is the fact that all the comment text boxes and red square boxes are ‘live and editable’. You can use this file as a head start to customize your preferred hotkeys vs. creating one from scratch. (Bit of a time saver) You will find that as you evolve your hotkeys, you will revise your PDF on the fly continuously making it more detailed and accurate for your desired use. Just a note; All I did here was take a photo of my actual keyboard and added some black space around it. I then saved a .jpg file and converted it to a PDF file. A few things I would like to point out here in hopes to answer some possible questions. This layout I am providing here is simply how I ‘personally’ have found to work for ‘my’ for my trading style. Yours can of course differ. - The text boxes Highlighted in ‘yellow’ represent the very active hotkeys I use most commonly - The colored stickers on the keyboard (purchased from a dollar store) are something I did to help me learn with clarity/confidence under pressure. Once you have used them for a while you will most likely find that you do not need colored stickers. Your hotkeys become natural to you. That day will come. - The hotkey scripts I am providing are based on using DAS trader version 5.3.0.5 (and in particular IB as my broker). Please note to ensure that you test out all your hotkeys in simulation mode before you go live. Make changes as necessary. - From my understanding and experience using hotkeys in DAS Trader Pro 5.3.0.5. Hotkeys associated with ‘stop order’ like actions DO NOT work in pre-market environments. (I do not know why). So use at your own discretion and ensure to test out all of them in the simulator environment. Perhaps now that I have done this, it might be nice for other fellow traders to share their hotkey layout and what works well for them. Be nice to see other trading styles. Happy trading everyone! And good luck! Uploaded; April 20 2019 Revision: 0 DAS HotKey Layout and Shortcut Scripts REV0.pdf
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    I have created a combined Playbook and Trade Planner that may be of use for some fellow members. I use it myself as a kind of cheat sheet to refer to prior to entering a trade. The idea was to store setups / strategies with picture examples in a single file that can reveal that example with the click of a button. An example of a cheat sheet is shown in the picture. In addition to the pictures of setups I have also defined some indicators / rules for each setup which refresh with the setup selection. I define the indicators on the "Strategy_definition" sheet and add pictures in the (hidden) columns on the "Plan" sheet. When a strategy is selected in cell D8 and the button is clicked, it refreshes the table of indicators and unhides a cheat sheet example picture for that setup / strategy. It is a bit slow to refresh. In addition I have added a trade planner table. I enter my intended STOP and entry price and the intended trade direction (Long / Short) and it refreshes the R:R table which provides me with the price levels that would need to be met to deliver a 2R trade and beyond. I like to compare these price levels to support / resistance levels I have marked on the stock and other technical levels and moving averages to assess the potential roadblocks at various prices. In addition I may throw in a rough trade management plan on a simplified level with Partials planned out. I include some other useful info like RVOL, the direction of the overall market etc whilst planning the trade. As a pretty new trader still in SIM I have found this has helped me to be more disciplined / patient. It also helps journal later as it gives an idea of what I was expecting before entering a trade. I just copy a new "Plan" sheet for every new trade and have one file for the trading day with several sheets. The setups I have included are my interpretation of setups mainly from the moderators success webinars. On that basis, take it as a disclaimer to check that you agree with my interpretation and test in SIM if you plan on using this. The file is an excel document and can be accessed via the Google drive link below. It needs to have macros enabled in order for the button to unhide the cheat sheet pictures to work. I have left some blank fields to allow a longer list of setups to be included. Any feedback, tips or suggestions for improvement are most welcome. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PoAgvlTZ5AwVDkcu3ciEhTafGCprnGip/view?usp=sharing
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    I have been using TradeStation for the past year and went to their Masterclasses in Plantation. I used Andrew's book to earn 45% in six weeks and then lost 75% in one month due to the market turning and revenge trading. Since that time I signed up lifetime for BBT and have learned the exact issues that I had. Now I have about twenty years of experience in the market studying Fundamentals, Modern Portfolio Theory, CFP and more, so adding AAs system was a no brainer. However the psychology aspect which is what took me the longest only had one oversight. When I traded during the six weeks I was still working, so I had strict rules. Once I retired I broke all of them. Namely: I sat in front of the console for too many hours. My position discipline wavered. I broke all of the rules and revenge traded. I started to mix styles: Options plus Day Trading without a transition strategy. I have since stopped trading and instituted strict controls around my day: Clear hours just like before. Solid exits and limitations. I now know how to read when the market turns - I have been a business cycle swing trader before so this confused me. Position and R:r risk reward ratios that match. Some examples: risk: Reward, r:R : 1:2 Win:Loss 3:2 Daily max loss: 1% of Total Account Daily risk per trade: 1% Max Security Limits (I had one issue per day during the six week period. I upped it to two near the end. Once above that I started charts and darts!) Simple ranges for quick math: $100 issues: Size: 50, 100, 250 $50 issues: Size 100, 200, 500 $25 issues: Size 200, 400, 1000 All of these limitations promise to return my previous profitability with slow consistent gains. SUMMARY: Restrict the amount of time you trade. Restrict the size of positions, the r:R. Max Daily Loss, Trade Loss NEVER revenge trade. NEVER trade when market direction is unclear.
  12. 1 point
    Hi folks, here is a copy of the playbook template I discussed in the Feb 14 recap. The file is obviously a sample meant for each individual trader to complete with their own strategies, patterns, and setups. https://drive.google.com/a/bearbulltraders.com/file/d/1bmu3XzT_KtzTfya2Fo7Uqc7DZG_N7q-B/view?usp=sharing Please download a local copy as .xlsx
  13. 1 point
    For those who subscribe to the DAS Deluxe package, here's a tip on how to boost your stock market data feed up to Premuim/Elite levels for free! All you need to do is contact DAS and ask them to swap your Options Level 2 data for ARCA book. There is no additional cost. This, of course, assumes you don't plan to trade options. After they confirm the switch has been made, close and re-open DAS. You should see additional ACB limit orders on the L2 Montage tab, as well as the complete ARCA Book. Contact DAS support through the DAS web form or via e-mail at [email protected]
  14. 1 point
    I was rereading Van Tharp's 40 principles for reinforcement and thought it would be good to post them. These are from a free book on the website: https://www.vantharp.com/home-study Most of these principles you will find in Andrew's book but stated differently. Also, Van Tharp is much heavier into position sizing strategies. I can post more about that topic if there is an interest. Here they are: Tharp Think Principles 1. Successful trading can be modeled and taught to other people. 2. Learning to trade well requires as much work/education as any other profession. 3. You need to find a trading system that fits you. 4. In order to accomplish that, you must know yourself: a. Your values b. Your strengths c. Your weaknesses d. Your parts e. Significant beliefs f. Trading edges g. Trading weaknesses 5. You can only trade your beliefs about the markets, not the markets themselves. Thus, you should know and understand your beliefs and whether or not they are useful. 6. System development is 100 percent (1) beliefs (2) mental states, and (3) mental strategies. Thus, it is 100 percent psychology. 7. You must know your personal criteria for being able to trade a system with confidence. 8. A mistake means not following your rules. If you don’t have rules, everything you do is a mistake. 9. It is much better to trade a lower-scoring SQN system that fits you than a higher-scoring SQN system that doesn’t fit you. 10. You are responsible for everything that happens to you. When you understand this, you can correct your mistakes. We call this respond-ability. 11. Repeating the same mistake over and over is self-sabotage. 12. A trader who makes one mistake in 10 trades is 90 percent efficient; that 10 percent drop in efficiency could be enough to make him/her a losing trader. 13. Fifty percent of system development is thinking through and clearly defining a set of written objectives. Those objectives should address your desired gain, your maximum acceptable draw-down, and the relative importance of each. 14. You need to design core objectives that fit you. 15. There are potentially as many objectives as there are traders. 16. You meet your objectives through position sizing strategies. 17. The overwhelming majority of your performance is due to your position sizing strategy and your efficiency as a trader. 18. You must know your mission/purpose in life and incorporate that into your trading. 19. You need to know your financial freedom number (passive income per month less monthly expenses). When it’s positive, you are financially free. 20. Never open a position without knowing the initial risk. 21. Define your profits and losses as a multiple of your initial risk (R-multiples). 22. Limit your losses to 1R or less. 23. Make sure your profits on the average are bigger than 1R. 24. Never take a trade unless the reward-to-risk ratio of that trade is at least 2:1 and perhaps even 3:1 25. Your trading system is a distribution of R multiples. 26. When you understand #6 you should be able to hear/see a description of a system and know the kind of R-multiple distribution it would generate. 27. The mean of that distribution is the expectancy, and it tells you what you’ll make on the average trade. It should be a positive number. 28. The mean, standard deviation, and the number of trades determine the SQN score for your system. 29. Your SQN score tells you how easy it will be to meet your objectives using position sizing strategies. Other than that, your system has nothing to do with meeting your objectives. 30. Systems are usually named after their setups, which are usually based on some attempt to predict future prices. Prediction has nothing to do with trading well. 31. System performance has to do with controlling risk and managing the position through your exits. 32. There are at least six different market types. You should understand how your system will perform in each of them. a. Bull volatile b. Bull quiet c. Sideways volatile d. Sideways quiet e. Bear quiet (almost doesn’t exist) f. Bear volatile 33. It’s easy to design a Holy Grail system (one with a high System Quality Number score) for any one market type listed above. 34. It’s insane to expect that trading system to work in all market types. 35. The biggest mistake people make is to try to design one system to fit all markets. 36. You should only trade your system in the market type for which it was designed. 37. Good traders understand the big picture, know how to measure it, and become aware when the situation changes. 38. Media and academia know none of this and will not teach it to you. 39. For each market type, you need a large sample size to estimate what the population is for that system. 40. You also need to Monte Carlo simulations with your system’s R-multiples to get a better idea of what to expect in the future. This will work if the sample you draw from is similar to the population.
  15. 1 point
    To be honest Debbie - I wouldn't waste any time learning Trade Ideas right away. I'm not saying that because I think it's a bad product, but the BBT trading room already gives you everything you need as a new trader. Carlos and Norm run the morning show based off the scanners from Trade Ideas. Trying to make your own scanners beyond that is pushing into advanced territory, and really not needed. Spend those two weeks just practicing in SIM and in the Replay mode.
  16. 1 point
    This is a great question. I had the same experience of doing well early and then having more problems later. I am a very curious person and I am a trier. Once I know something can be done I will never give up. This sounds great for trading right? It is, but also it means that I just keep trying things when I should give up and focus on one thing! So I tried opening range brakes, I tried reversals, I tried momentum trading, I tried trend trading, I tried scalping, I tried it all! I tried going live after 6 months in the simulator and it was a total disaster. I reacted emotionally after a big loss and tried to make all my money back on the next trade and lost twice as much. So I went back into the simulator and then I tried going live again a few months later and it was better but still not good. Then I mostly traded in the sim and sometimes when things were going well I did some live trades but I knew that I wasn't there yet. I finally got to the point where I had come full circle. I had tried all the different things I was going to try and I was starting to look back at what had worked best for me and came up with what I really wanted to stick to. For me it was a matter of keeping things very simple and doing very few trades. I decided to do one five-minute ORB. No trading in the first 5 minutes! Had to wait for that first 5-minute candle that close and then look for an entry. Then I would do one VWAP break, usually after 9:45 or so, and only enter on volume. I would not do any trading after 10 am. Working this plan really helped me in a few ways. First, if I had a down day it would be a small down day. Things can only go so badly when you just do two trades. Also, this kept the fees down. So once I could do that consistently and I was getting decent results and, most importantly, it just felt like a normal thing everyday, I went live again and have been live since then. That point of going live was after a year and a half of trading the open before my job of running my small business every day so it took a while! I track my 10 and 20 day averages, focusing on R multiples not money, increasing my risk when my 20 day average is above .5R and now sometimes do another one or two trades and sometimes trade a bit after 10am. So anyway, finally deciding on two simple trades to focus on was what did it for me. And doing just one ORB and then waiting for a volume entry on the 2 min. chart for a VWAP break kept me from making entries based on reactions instead of rules.
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    Thanks @Robert H! I finally made it further down in the Education Center playlist. Your contributions are still paying dividends. I know now that I am normal and it is fixable... https://bearbulltraders.com/lessons/robert-h-2-17-19-time-frames-and-chart-patterns/ https://bearbulltraders.com/lessons/roberts-rants-patience-and-perspective-pilot/
  18. 1 point
    Decided to make a video on this topic. Enjoy!
  19. 1 point
    Check your studies ConfigEx. It looks likes that PriceMarker level at 41.75 is included in scale.
  20. 1 point
    Hi Bart, We received your e-mail response. Please note that replies to that automated e-mail address are not monitored. It's best to use the forums (here) to communicate. My solution to your issue is to explicitly state the number of candles in the hotkey. For example: 1-minute chart: MinuteChart 1 3d; NumBar 30 5-minute chart: MinuteChart 5; NumBar 24 You can change NumBar to whatever zoom you prefer.
  21. 1 point
    No, I don't believe there's an ability to interact with alerts via the chart or hotkeys. It's also worth mentioning that the alert system is a tad buggy at the moment, at least in the latest BETA builds. I'd have to dig up my notes, but the math used for the alerts is way off depending what you choose for the equation (< and <= give completely different results). An alert for a price level will work fine (with a slight bug, see below), but anything using Unrealized, P/L, and Total P/L will give you unexpected results. Here's some of my notes to get around the bugs I've found: TTS --> Doesn't read out beyond the account line if present. Workaround: Type a message into the SYMB box, it'll read that first (e.g. "MAX LOSS HIT") PRICE ALERT --> Readout of price is incorrect. It appends the equation number (I assume it's the operators position in an array) to the price. So for example, a price alert for AMD at 19.40 will give you --> If "<" it'll read AMD 119.4. If "<=" it'll read AMD 219.4, if "=" it'll read AMD 319.4 and so fourth (> is 4, >= is 5). Maxloss does a running balance, depending on the operator used. Examples: P/L <= -150 ---> Expected Result: If actual P/L is less than or equal to -150, send alert. Actual result: Does a running balance, so if you're up $300 on the day and then take a $150 loss, it'll trigger at PnL $150. Not a bad idea for another option (a trailing P/L alert), just not the expected result. Workaround: Use "<" instead. e.g. P/L < -100 ---> This seems to work more appropriately, although I've had it sometimes trigger like the <= operator. Unrealized and TotalPL have similar issues, but are more random because of the inclusion of the unrealized variable.
  22. 1 point
    @KyleK29 I am amazed by how much effort you've put into this solution. Thank you on behalf of the entire Bear Bull Traders Team! Would it be possible to automatically send a STOP MARKET order along with the buy/sell execution? The following script only sends a STOP with some arbitrary price relative to Average Cost: Share=Pos;ROUTE=STOP;StopType=Market;StopPrice=AvgCost-0.10;TIF=DAY+;SELL=SEND How cool would it be to double-click your stop level, automatically calculate share size, send the order, and send a stop order with the press of one hotkey. Thanks!
  23. 1 point
    When you scale out at a .10c move, are you moving your stop (physical or mental) to break even? I ask because I changed scale-out strategies in August (SIM based) and took a huge hit (30% winrate, -$4000 on the month). I wanted to "let the runners run" and wait until it got near my price target. I was able to review the data at the end of August and noticed what was going on (what wasn't working). Like you, my numbers showed that my avg loser was way bigger than my avg winner, per trade expectancy was negative. I think the biggest (good) changes were the scale-out and the risk-based share sizing. Obviously, each person needs to develop their own strategy, but my current strategy is this: 1) Risk Based Share Sizing (see dynamic calculator in DAS area of forum) factored for confidence (e.g. if I'm not confident, I use smaller size than my max-risk allowable). My share size is based upon the stop distance. 2) When the stock reaches 1R (if my stop distance is $0.13 away, it'd need to move in my favor $0.13), I sell 25% and move my mental stop to break-even. I repurposed the Fibonacci tool (since I don't use it) to be a 1R, 2R, 3R levels indicator. 3) During the trade, I scale out some more where I see resistance forming or near known resistance levels (moving averages, half dollar, whole dollar), or at 2R, 3R, or the price target. Using my sell 25% hotkey. 4) My mental stop tends to float, so if a moving average that has been respected recently (bounced off of) is above my break-even point, I'll watch it as an indication for a change of direction (it can go past it a little bit to allow variance) and use that as a trailing stop. 5) Once my shares get down below 100, I usually measure the last two pullback distances, add a few cents to it (as long as it doesn't place it below the break-even point), and set it as a trailing stop order. Move on to the next trade. What really helped me refine this to my personality was a few data points that I record with every trade: - Highest Price in Trade (this is price related, not direction related, so highest price seen for either long or short) - Lowest Price in Trade Those aren't prices you executed at, but prices that the stock reached while your trade was open. From there, I can calculate the average R-movement, updraw%, and downdraw% for every trade. When I reviewed August's losses, the data told me that: 78% of my picks moved in my favor. I was simply not scaling appropriately and letting winners run against me. My position sizing and $risk was all over the place. For September, I implemented the new strategy listed above. Winrate is 76%. It has a lot of "small" wins. I'm working on releasing a few custom tools to the community to help people narrow down their strategy and refine their edge. One is a data-focused journal (does most of the work for you) and the other is a backtester (allowing you to automatically replay all of your trades with different scale out approaches you want to test).
  24. 1 point
    Hey George, This is something we all starting out struggle with, our Losers being bigger than our Winners. Here is my advice and is only based on what I personally experienced. There is no way to really tell you what you can improve on without seeing the details of your trades over a period of time. This is were a mentor or a trading partner you can be a huge help. When I first started I was not getting a good enough entry and was hesitating a lot to get into a move. Sometimes we want firm confirmation that the move is going to happen and we get in too late. Make sure you are trusting your set up and that you are getting in with no hesitation once you spot your signal. Trust your set up and get in as soon as possible. For me setting stop loss by a set amount can sometimes mess with your judgement, I set my stop loss based on a technical level, meaning the low or the high of the previous candle, daily level, LOD/HOD this puts my trading at ease. Based on how much room I need to get the stop loss I decide if i will take a full position or half position. If my stop loss is .30 away on a very active stock i am not going to take a full size. If is .20 cents then I feel more comfortable taking a full position. Once in the trade check out the price action and what is telling you if you see any indication that your is likely not going to happen get out regardless of the stop loss. I used to set a stop loss and sometimes when the price action was not looking favorable I would still stay in the trade to see if it would work out then get out at my stop loss. Instead of losing a .05 I would lose .15 . There is no reason for that, jump out and if the set up becomes active again jump back in. Andrew is great at this, we cannot be afraid to jump out if things don't look good for a small loss and jump back in when the set up is back in play. Easier to make up 5 cents than 15 cents. There are so many variables and other possible areas of improvement but again without knowing what your specific struggling with it's difficult to hit the nail on the head. Others might also have a different answer that can fit better to what you are experiencing, so look forward to seeing responses from other members as well, as we all deal with this differently. There is no wrong answer, just what will work best for your trading style.
  25. 1 point
    David, it takes a lot of practice to plan a trade in real-time (especially in the first 30 minutes of the market open). At least a month and hundreds of attempts until you develop a process that works for you. Once you get good at planning and managing the trade, you will be able to do it faster and faster each time. Like muscle memory of sorts. Here is what works for me: Prerequisites 1. Stock is in play 2. Support and resistance identified in pre-market 3. Pre-market volume and price action is tradable 4. Know the float category (low, mid, high) and how many sharesI plan to take While watching the stock 1. Spread is manageable 2. ATR/price swings accounted for (i.e, see how much the stock ticks. Is it going up/down in 0.01 to 0.05 increments, or 0.50 to $1) 3. Price action is clean and not choppy; related to above 4. Volume is good and not dying 5. Who is in control: buyers or sellers? 6. What is the strategy/pattern that is setting up here? 7. Is the price getting extended? Finding an entry 1. Is the entry favourable (new 1-min or 5-min high), or will it be a chase 2. Did the stock pullback yet? If not, to which level could it test and will I survive that? 3. What's the target? Is it realistic? 4. Finding a reasonable stop at a technical level 5. Calculating the risk-to-reward 6. Executing the order with conviction--no hesitation Managing the Trade 1. Is the live price action still clean? 2. Are we making higher-highs and higher-lows, or vice versa? 3. Are there are levels or tops/bottoms that I missed before entering that have now become a factor (i.e, a moving average on the 1-minute chart) 4. Is the market providing new information that validates or invalidates my original criteria? 5. Is the Level 2 bullish, bearish or neutral? 6. Is it a good time to add more (if I scaled in initially), or should I take some profit off the table? 7. If scaling out, how much and at what levels? 8. Is the price action conducive to my original stop/target? 9. Is control between buyers and selling shifting? 10. Given the above, does it make sense to stay in the trade or exit at break-even, before stop, or before target? I know that is a lot to process in a short amount of time, but those thoughts go through my head before and during a trade. For others, it may be much simpler or even more complex. Best of luck.
  26. 1 point
    You need to zoom out to see more. Down arrow or minus sign. Or you can change the hotkey command for F1/F2 to default to a certain number of bars. Like this: F1: MinuteChart 1 1d; NumBar 30; F2: MinuteChart 5 1d; NumBar 24
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