Rob C's Trading Journal - starting Feb 1 2019

[IamKarthi 342]

I got burnt by $AMD on the exact VWAP trade setup, funny you mention about $AMD in your post. Both $AMD and $MU daily gapped up at the open and looked strong that also biased my view. 

[Rob C 824]

Wednesday 5/22/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. My nerves a little bit negative, because AAPL looked really good in the premarket so I will probably be trading it again.

I took two live trades, both with AAPL. Yes AAPL.

The plan, based on back-testing, was not to trade AAPL but it looked really good in the premarket. After the open I actually was waiting for the entry with TSLA, but I took a glance at AAPL when TSLA went through my entry point. So I missed it. So instead I focused on AAPL which was setting up. AAPL had a mini ABCD/Bull-flag. I waited for a clean break of the 185.11 daily level and went long.

What it looked like when I took the trade:

1min                                       5min

                              

This was a very stressful trade. There were 7 near miss stop outs in the first minute. 5 times it touched my S/O and twice it blew right through my S/O on a spike. I survived the spikes and the touches but it was not easy for me. I usually have a trigger finger for my S/O level. The price finally started to move up and I got 3 partials at stall points. Then out at B/E.

 

 

50 cent move on AAPL is OK, but not really worth the stress. I actually had to take a break from the screen it was so draining. When I came back it looks like I missed some good moves on the stocks in play.

I saw AAPL again and it looked interesting. The price has been holding above VWAP for several minutes and I like there were three 1 min candles of HH and HL. Also I really liked the R/R. I am so use to low R/R in my trades (barely ~2), that it was nice to see a decent one. The conservative target of HOTD (and 50MA-15min) gives an R/R~2.5 and using 200MA-1min as the target is a R/R~4. I also liked the 15min chart, it was higher highs for the last hour from premarket. So I waited to see the color of the next candle. When it looked like it will stay white I went long at the break of the 15min candle body, with 1min VWAP as my S/O. The price moved up to create another 1min high so I was initially happy with my trade, then it immediately reversed and I got S/O. So again my 1min/2min ORB paid for my learning for other trades.

My score card for today:

  

What I did good today:  Even with the stressful first trade, in general I had fun trading today and every day this week. This is highly unusual. I think it’s because I am trading new setups/stocks each day.

How did I challenge myself today?  I took a 15 minute ORB. I can’t remember the last time I did that.

What I did bad today:  Yes the 1min and 15min chart looked good, but there was no confirmation on the 5min chart for my 15min ORB when I took the trade.

What can I do better tomorrow: Keep learning the 15min ORB.

 

 

[Rob C 824]

Thursday 5/23/2019

I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning (only 4.5 hours of sleep). My nerves were OK.

I took two live trades with AAPL and MU.

For the first time since I have been posting, I was so embarrassed by my poor trading today that I considered not posting today. After about a minute I came to my senses and realized it’s more important than ever to post today. I need this consequence showing everyone who reads tis post the stupid mistakes I made today.

When I first logged in this morning I was quite happy to FB with some premarket activity, it usually quiet in the PM. After a quick review I setup my platform for FB to be my primary focus and MU or TSLA as my secondary. I left my platform to get ready for the day and when I came back the AAPL sirens were calling. I saw that the daily and PM chart looked good and again I ignored my back test data and made AAPL my primary focus again. And yes FB made a really nice 2min ORB without me again today.

Yes, AAPL had a really nice setup with a really bullish hammer. But my back-test data says this no longer has an 1min/2min ORB edge to it for AAPL. So that is mistake number one. Mistake number two was the premarket candles were respecting the $180 as a resistance level and thus should be my breakout/entry point. I even drew a line on my chart to help with the entry. For some reason I decided to enter at the 50MA instead, though I am not sure why. If I followed my plan I would not have taken this losing trade. Mistake number 2.

What it looked like when I took the trade:

1min                                          5min

           

As usual with AAPL it reversed the instant I clicked the buy button. So much so that my order was filled well below my planned entry point. The price quickly dropped and I was stopped out. I am hoping this has finally taught me to follow my back test data. The only positive thing for this trade is at the last moment my frontal lobes took some control over my reptilian part of my brain and thought with the back test data being so bad at least take half share size. Which I did. So this was only a -0.5R S/O.   

   

So this is when things got really bad. I was looking around for another trade and I see MU was setting up, but not sure what yet. If it bounces off of VWAP it looks like a good short or breaks through and engulfs the first 1min candle it would make a strong bullish hammer. So I was watching MU to see what it would do. Now I wish I remember my thoughts during the entry because then I could analyze my reasoning and then confront the poor behavior. But I don’t remember and I am usually good about recalling my thoughts. So the price broke VWAP only slightly and I went long!!! It wasn’t a hotkey mistake, The little I remember was wanting to go long because I remember calculating my stop loss on a stop level BELOW my entry. So I must have been planning a long. But why? I have a picture, in my playbook, of an almost identical setup AS A SHORT. Why would I go long? Well within a few seconds I realized my mistake which then begins the next phase of my disgust for myself. I totally froze. I kept telling myself this looks like a really good short why am I long? A whole minute went by and then finally I heard over the chat Andrew say he was going short MU. That was finally enough to break out of my stupor and exit the trade. So at least I didn’t take the full –R.  

I have been much better lately about not taking bad setups. So it surprises me not only did I take a bad setup I took the WRONG setup on MU. I can’t remember the last time I did that.              

My score card for today:

  

What I did good today:  At least I knew to go half share size with the AAPL trade.

How did I challenge myself today?  I still posted my journal entry even though I am completely embarrassed by my trading today.

What I did bad today:  Fixated on AAPL. Took a completely the wrong setup on MU.

What can I do better tomorrow: Well, since its Friday tomorrow at least AAPL is off limits (a new rule of mine on Fridays).

 

 

[IamKarthi 342]

Guess what! I took $AAPL too at the open, the exact same trade and got stopped out in SIM. For me, the 5 min chart between 6AM till the open had UpTrend. At the open the price went down, but couldn't break down, pulled up and so I went Long, I guess that is probably what you saw too. Could happen to anyone. Glad you shared it though. 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 24, 2019 by IamKarthi

[Mark D. 435]

Nothing to be ashamed of Rob. It was probably the lack of sleep! 

[Rob C 824]

6 hours ago, IamKarthi said:

Guess what! I took $AAPL too at the open, the exact same trade and got stopped out in SIM. For me, the 5 min chart between 6AM till the open had UpTrend. At the open the price went down, but couldn't break down, pulled up and so I went Long, I guess that is probably what you saw too. Could happen to anyone. Glad you shared it though. 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the note.

Yes I had the same idea. And for 8 weeks the bullish hammer worked great on AAPL with surprisingly both gapping up or down in the premarket as long as it had a nice trend. But the last two weeks it has become a low % play (and the previous two weeks marginal). I knew it. I had the back test data telling me it, but I am having serious issues stopping myself from taking the trade when I see that setup. 

Tomorrow I will have an AAPL free trade day.

 

[Rob C 824]

Friday 5/24/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves were not good due to my poor trading yesterday.

I was unable to take any trades today due to issues with CMEG.

I first tried to take a 2min ORB with FB and saw the order rejected. A minute later I saw AMD setting up and tried an order and also rejected. Then I received a note saying CMEG had an issue on Wednesday. Essentially, I stopped trading. I tried switching to SIM but that caused a force shutdown of my platform. I tried to send a report to CMEG and that crashed my computer and needed a restart. I was done for the day.

Looking at the charts now, compared where I tried to send an order, my entries were so-so today. FB setup was not fully developed and I entered too early. I still would have made it to my first partial, but it would have been a substandard score card. AMD was a nice setup and an OK entry, though it would have only made it to my second partial before reversing.

What I did good today:  Didn’t trade.

What I did bad today:  Entered too early on FB setup was not complete.

What can I do better tomorrow/weekend: Lots to do this 3 day weekend. Write weekly recap, catchup on other BBT journals, watch everyone’s video recaps, run weekly back testing, reread my own journal entries, continue reading The Playbook (Bella from SMB’s book), general weekly chart review and create my trading plan for next week.

I hope everyone else had (or will have) a good trading day.

 

 

[Rob C 824]

 

Live trading summary for week ending 5/24/19.

It was a very unusual week of trading. From a stat standpoint it was not good. Score card of 78% and a win% of 38% and my largest weekly loss this month. From a psychological standpoint, I was all over the place this week. The first three days were actually fun, even though all three days my P/L was flat. I was really enjoying the process of learning. This is possibly the first time. As was curious to see what the market would bring and eager to figure out how to handle it. Then it came crashing down on Thursday where I traded REALLY poorly. Then there were issues with CMEG on Friday so I didn’t trade.

This week I also found how unadaptable I was. I was always worried that I would not be able to adapt to the continuous change in the market. But I thought the issue would be that I would not know what new direction I should take. So my back test data from last weekend clearly showed AAPL was no longer in play for my 1min/2min ORB setups. But FB definitely was in play. So very simply, for the first few minutes after the open don’t trade AAPL and instead make FB your primary focus. Then I would wake up in the morning and see this wonderful premarket action on AAPL and couldn’t help myself and would make it my primary focus. So all week I got chopped up on these seemingly excellent setups on AAPL, while FB were having these really nice ORBs. So I knew what to change, but was unable to make the change.

Back test data from last week shows FB still making great 1min/2min for 3 weeks now. Too bad I only traded FB once last week. AAPL data still shows I should still not be watching it. AMD worth watching. And MU, though still not great, is improving the 1min/2min ORBs.

Here is my plan for next week:

 

 

 

 

[Rob C 824]

Tuesday 5/28/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. My nerves were not good due to my poor trading on my last trading day (Thursday) and worried there would be platform issues with CMEG like there was Friday.

And yes again I was unable to take any trades today due to issues with CMEG. I am uncomfortable making manual orders close to the open and my DAS setup does not allow a quick change to the routing on the Montage.

I tried to take a 1min ORBU on FB and order was rejected. The entry point disappeared quickly so no chance for manual entry. Then I tried a 2min ORBU on AMD and as expected my order was rejected. It’s sad because both had nice runs. I haven’t got a trade to have a good run for two weeks. Plus I am slightly negative for the month and that would have brought to the positive and I had a really bad last day of trading I needed a good day to get my confidence back.

It took me about 2 hours to get over my frustration, but then I thought this is what I need to get off my rear-end and change brokers (actually I use a stand-up desk so that’s just a metaphor). I haven’t had a hulk or max loss day in 4 months I think I can trust myself now with a larger account. I was waiting for CMEG to announce their counter offer to the Alliance offer. But in reality I was being lazy. It’s time to go with a better broker. With E-trade I was almost 50/50 with long and short trades. Now I am 90% long. Yes the market has been moving upwards, but still part of it is due to the lack of shorts available on CMEG. Plus, of course the commission costs are less than desirable for me since I am still trading small.

What I did good today:  Recognized good setups, though unable to trade them.

How did I challenge myself today: Now applying for a Centerpoint account.

What I did bad today:  Got frustrated not being able to trade.

What can I do better tomorrow/weekend: It’s been 5 days without trading. It feels like when I can’t go for a workout in a week. I need to figure out at least how to use SIM tomorrow.

 

 

[Rob C 824]

Wednesday 5/29/2019

I had a well-being score of unknown value this morning. My Garmin watch essentially said I never slept. My daughter had really bad nightmares last night and I stayed up with her until she fell back a sleep (but that was 5am - already passed my wake up time). So I thought it wise never to get near my computer this morning. Wow its now six days without taking a trade. The good news is my daughter doesn't seem too drained and looked normal by the time I dropped her off at school. Maybe she was getting a few cat naps in during the night. 

I hope everyone's trading has gone well this week. Too bad I couldn't join in on a few trades.

[Tommy 55]

On 5/21/2019 at 12:07 AM, Rob C said:

 

take care and there is always another day, i hope you can trade the next session

[Rob C 824]

Thursday 5/30/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning. My nerves were not good due to 6 days of not trading, my last day trading was one of the worst I had live and the huge FOMO I had with the nice moves I missed the past few days. I felt that it was inevitable that I will have a double stop out today. Since that was a powerful self-fulfilling prophecy, I traded half share sizes today.

I took two live trades with FB. First trade I traded OK, the second trade I traded poorly.

FB bounced off the 50MA and made a nice hammer as it broke VWAP. It had the minimum volume needed of 125K in 20 seconds. 300K in the first minute is the minimum to call it in play. I went long at the breakoff VWAP. It quickly made it to my first target ($183.50) and then quickly reversed. I tried to exit at B/E but there was some slippage and the trade was a slight loss.

What it looked like when I took the trade:

1min                          

   

   

The second FB trade was a disaster. FB was dropping fast and heading to an unusually strong tech level of 200MA+Daily Level+PDC. So I was going to go long the moment it touched it expecting a bounce. First mistake, I didn’t check the volume. After the first 20 seconds of the market open the volume dried up and FB was not in play, so no trades should have been considered. I did place the order when it touched the 3X tech level. It sure bounced. So much I lost 25 cents on the entry. The R/R is now bad, but it never crossed my mind to get out of the trade, though that is a rule and my second big mistake on the trade. I actually had a good 5 seconds that I could have exited with a small profit, but I held. When the price retraced to the tech level again I stopped out. It had a large slippage again so I had a 50 cent stop out, well larger than the planned one.

What it looked like when I took the trade:

1min  

 

Both trades:

My score card for today:

What I did good today:  My first trade was fine and at least I knew to go half share size today.

How did I challenge myself today?  Traded after a forced 6 days off.

What I did bad today:  Didn’t check for volume or quickly get out of a bad entry trade. I am hoping these errors are due to not trading for awhile.

What can I do better tomorrow: Relearn my rules. Apparently, I forgot them.

 

 

[Travis Vayssie 13]

I hear ya!  I had three trades today that didn’t go my way initially and I had multiple chances to exit at b/e, but held on to them hoping they would magically go my way.  Although I was confident in the setups to begin with after another 5 minutes of holding the position the setup was much different and I would have never entered at that point but I refused to be wrong.  And it cost me.

What I learned today was that b/e is sometimes a W!

[Mike B 623]

2 hours ago, Travis Vayssie said:

What I learned today was that b/e is sometimes a W!

Break even is always a W! You can always get back in if the setup is still valid.

[Rob C 824]

Friday 5/31/2019

I had a well-being score of 5.5/10 this morning (only 4.5 hours a sleep). My nerves were OK. Since it was Friday I traded half share sizes today.

I took two live trades with AMD then FB.

I was actually looking at FB at the open. Lots of volume and a nice hammer. I was waiting to pull the trigger long when it broke the 50MA. It didn’t so I moved my attention to AMD. AMD bounced hard off the 200MA-1min and made a nice candle. There were 4 levels all bunched together around 27.6 so I waited for a clean break of all the levels and went long. The price did reach my first target for a partial, but never reached my second partial even though the volume stayed strong. Then I exited at B/E.

  

 

My next trade was with FB. I was looking for a 5min ORB and I saw FB 1min candles bouncing between VWAP and the 50MA-1min. The candles were hammers, but when FB has a fight with VWAP and the 50MA, lately the 50MA has been winning. So I really didn’t know which way it would break. It did finally break down through VWAP, but I waited for the price to break the $180 level, since there was a false VWAP break 2min earlier and FB respected the $180 level in premarket. I shorted at the break of $180. I was so focused on FB I didn’t look at any other chart for the last 2 minutes. As soon as I entered the trade I noticed all my other stocks on my watch list have now gone bullish. Uh oh. Not enough of a signal for me to get out of the trade, but I definitely had my finger on cover-all. I exited at planned S/O.

What it looked like when I took the trade:

1min  

5min

 

 

My score card for today:

What I did good today:  Took two OK trades.

How did I challenge myself today?  Waited for level breaks, did not enter too early.

What I did bad today:  Trading the 5min ORB like a 2min ORB out of reflex. But the setups and entries are different.

What can I do better tomorrow: Lots of data crunching this weekend. This month did not go very well. I need to determine my training plan for next month.