Rob C's Trading Journal - starting Feb 1 2019

[Rob C 824]

Thursday 10/24/2019

I had a well-being score of 5/10 this morning. Only 4 hours of sleep again.

I took 1 live trade this morning was with AMAT.

Lots of gappers this morning. My watchlist today was: AAPL, BABA, MU, PYPL, TWTR and AMAT. TSLA was too crazy for me, so it didn’t make the watchlist.

I really liked the daily chart for AMAT. Just before the open the price popped up and found resistance at the last daily level before a lot of open space. Then about 30sec after the open it popped up again and found resistance at the same level. Volume was good but it sat at the level for a few seconds. Then a mild signal appeared in L2. It was only 11k shares, which for a $50 stock is not big, but it was the final signal I needed to go long.

But there is an issue, Since we have broken out of a range in the daily I don’t have any target. Also, the only possible stop was 50 cents away at the 52.69 level. So I went small share size so I had the correct risk for a 50c stop. But, I was hoping I may be able to add some more shares later. After 2 minutes the price formed a good level at 52.40, so I can add shares with VWAP as my stop. As soon as I did the price dropped and almost stopped me out. Then a minute later finally broke out a bit and I took a 25% early partial mostly due to nerves and seeing SPY really dropping. But, I should have been more patient because the price continued up and I took another 25% at 1.5R shortly after (which should have been my first partial). Then 3 minutes later I took another 25% at 2.5R. Then the price dropped fast and I thought SPY is finally acting on the price and I exited the trade.

I took 3 SIM trades which I am flat.

 

Score card (live trade).

AMAT

92%

 

What I did good today:  I like the setup on AMAT

What I am grateful from today?  I am grateful to get +1.4R today, especially since I was long when SPY was plummeting.

What do I need to improve on:  Add shares on the pull back!!

 

[Rob C 824]

Friday 10/25/2019

I had a well-being score of 6.5/10 this morning.

I took 1 live trade this morning was with AAPL.

My watchlist today was: AAPL, BABA, MU, NVDA, INTC and YNDX. INTC was on my primary screen at the open.

I was watching and waiting for INTC to settle down and I saw AAPL setting up. AAPL quickly created a nice hammer and I went long when it broke the 50MA which it was respected in the premarket. My target was $244 with my stop at the LOPM. The price moved up reasonably quick as SPY started moving up as well. I took 25% partial at PDC and another 25% at the HOPM. Both partials were planned and were fine. Then I took a poor partial at the 1.5R level. I think just because I am use to taking one there. But had no reason to. Then the 1min chart started forming a really nice wedge with the top at 243.97. I really thought if it breaks that level it was really going to move and I will end the week with a nice 2R trade. It did break the wedge, but quickly fizzled and I exited the trade, shortly there after, when things started looking gloomy.

The wedge that formed:

Once the trade finished, all the other stocks on my watchlist, either already moved or did not have a setup. After a few minutes I called it quits for the week. I didn’t even take a SIM trade.

 

Score card (live trade).

AAPL

94%

 

What I did good today:  I like the AAPL trade. I liked I caught the top with a partial profit.

What I am grateful from today?  I am grateful to get +1.2R today, since the trade fizzled after less than a 2R move.

What do I need to improve on:  For the most part I liked my trading today.

 

[IamKarthi 342]

On 10/12/2019 at 11:13 PM, Rob C said:

 

I am almost at my 1 year trading live anniversary. Time to evaluate if it is worth continuing this journey. I was in SIM for 6 months, so I have been trying to learn day trading for 18 months. I always planned to access my progress and evaluate if I should continue at my 1 year live anniversary. It has been quite costly in time, so it is a serious consideration. Though I feel like progress has been made in my trading I don’t see any change in profitability, so it is not an easy decision. But with some reflection, this week, I realized it is better to look at this more holistically.

The change in my personality (for the better) has been dramatic. I would even say transforming. Especially, the last few months. I see improvements constantly and I would not want that to stop. Waking up at 5am and forcing yourself to face your fears, endure stress and muster the strength to make changes in yourself to improve creates dramatic results.

Congratulations Rob on your Trading Anniversary! What matters most is if one survives thru the learning curve of initial 1 year trading in the Live market. You have held it together and you have done it successfully. (I am so looking forward to mine). 

Very well written summary, especially on the piece about how trading changed your personality for better. I sometimes feel the same way. Trading is making me a bit more disciplined (I am not very disciplined, I don't stick to my routines always as I find them boring).  Also, learning the way we accept losses to the market, there are things that are not in our control in life. Just accept them and move on.  I think as the personality improves, the trading gets better and when the trading gets better the personality improves too. I feel, they just feed on each other and grow. 

[Brendon 138]

Trading is not natural, this is mentioned in many many books. If I were to draw a primal analogy it would be like hunting buffalo, most of the time you fail, but you don't keep chasing the buffalo when you lost the initiative. I would assume a lot of young hunters did and either got killed like in the movie 'Alpha' or let other potential catches get away.

Point is, plan your attack and even the best planned hunts fail most of the time. But the important thing is you survive to hunt another day and learn from your mistakes. When you make a catch it more than makes up for you failures. Food for weeks.

Commissions are cheap as Andrew says. Sometimes you need to break a bone aka blow up your acct to learn this lesson. 

[Rob C 824]

 

Plan for week starting 10/28/19.

Well PG&E (stock ticker PCG) has cut off our power again starting yesterday. So I will not be trading Monday and possibly Tuesday.

Interestingly Friday was the end of 4 weeks of trading this month. Though October is a 5 week month. So at the end of my months I tend to be finished at B/E. I guess my subconscious thought it was on the end of month so I am at 0.2R so far in October. But I was -8R down this month and slowly worked my way back. It should be interesting what happens next week and what week my subconscious thinks it is.

Back test data shows AAPL is back in play at the open. But for 1min or sooner ORBs.  BABA is also back in play at the open for 1/2min ORBs. MU and ROKU are no longer in play at the open.

Due to a shortened week don’t worry about the 5/15min ORBs. If you take one great, if not that is OK.

AAPL may be good right at the open, BABA after 1min.

Keep $10 risk per trade.

Try to set a limit order for 50% shares at 1.5R.

Also try and get out at B/E if the price reaches 1R and retraces.

Keep trading 5/10/15 min on SIM

Continue with the Van Tharp’s Peak Performance Course for Traders.

Remember you can take a third trade in a day.

Try and take partial profits on the way down as well if you lose faith in the trade. Instead all out at B/E or exit too early.

 

[Mike B 623]

On 10/12/2019 at 2:13 PM, Rob C said:

I am almost at my 1 year trading live anniversary. Time to evaluate if it is worth continuing this journey

November 1st is my 1 year anniversary. I plan on doing the same analysis and seeing where I am at. Great job fighting through the learning curve and sticking with it. 

[Rob C 824]

Thanks Mike. And I have been very impressed with your discipline and amazing journalling this year.

[Rob C 824]

Tuesday 10/29/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. PG&E (ticker PCG) turned our power back on yesterday afternoon.

I took 2 live trades this morning with AAPL.

My watchlist today was: AAPL, BABA, MU, ROKU, AMD and GRUB. I actually had a small game plan this morning. Don’t trade AAPL <1min since the last two days it gave false setups <1min. Make sure you wait for the volume to arrive on BABA before you determine direction. And don’t take GRUB on a trade <5min since I have no idea how it trades.

Of course I broke the first part of the plan. L  I had BABA on my main chart, but I couldn’t help to see AAPL making a perfect setup. It open higher and bounced hard off of a tech level at 249.25 and dropped and made a nice hammer finishing breaking the PCD and going green to red. I couldn’t help it and moved it to my montage but still resisted entering the trade. But, on the montage I saw that all of its >400K volume was small size trades which I really liked. Then finally the last straw, someone hit the bids with a 10K share sale and the whole T/S tape went red. So I shorted with the LOPM as my target and with the 249.25 level as my stop.

Luckily the market was good enough to teach me a lesson not to break my trading plan by instantly reversing and getting stopped out quickly for a full –R.  I am even upset that I didn’t exit the trade as soon as it went against me since that is what happens when AAPL is no longer in play. It creates a nice 1min hammer than reverses. But no, I apparently prefer trying to be right than making money and held on until my stop.

What the chart and T/S looked like when I took the trade:

As soon as I exited and thought to myself it looks like a good long now some big buys hit the ask and I went long. I actually got a good fill with $250 as my target and 200MA-1min as my stop. Soon after I entered I created a limit order for 1.5R. The price missed my order twice by 5 cents so I was feeling some anxiety. The price finally filled my order (barely, so I felt lucky). Two minutes later I was feeling shaky about the trade and sold some more shares, then all out at B/E. Thus, I made +1R and finished the day flat.

 

 

I really liked GRUB as a 5min ORB since it was making an ABCD pattern as well. Since I stopped out for a full –R and broke my trading plan today I was not allowed to take a third trade. Thus, I took the trade in SIM which turned out to be a +3R win.

 

Score cards (live trades).

AAPL	AAPL
85%	95%

 

What I did good today:  Waited for my 1.5R limit order to fill. Sold some shares when I lost faith in the trade instead of waiting for B/E to sell.

What I am grateful from today?  I am grateful for being flat today. It should have been worse since I didn’t follow my trading plan.

What do I need to improve on:  Follow my morning trading plan! Must control the FOMO.

 

[Rob C 824]

Wednesday 10/30/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. Nerves were a bit high due to running a little late in the morning so I wasn’t finished with my PM checklist until moments before the open. I was also nervous by my end of the month self-destructive behaviors were going to kick in.

I took 2 live trades this morning with MAT and AMD.

My watchlist today was: AAPL, BABA, MU, AMD, GE and MAT. My game plan was brief, no trading before 1min except for MAT and only if it breaks all through all the tech levels.

MAT gapped heavily up. And it open with a ton of daily levels below and all the MAs above it. So if it could punch through all the MAs above it I was planning to go long with hopes of the price breaking the PM high then there are no levels to hold it back.

The price action on MAT at the open was way too wild with 20-30 cent swings every few seconds which is huge for a $13 stock. The price swings started calming down and I was looking for an entry then I saw 18K shares buy hit the ask and I went long. My fill was bad, but expected. I only took a small share size because my stop was all the way down to the 200MA-1min due to the huge price swings. My target was the 13.45 daily level.

After about 90 seconds of wild price action the price calm down a bit and I moved my stop up to the 12.80 level which allowed me to increase my share size. Under one second after my fill someone dropped 19k shares at the bid and tanked the price through my stop. But I watched the price being bought up and dropped and bought up over and over. Looks like there was strong support under 12.75 so I held. Was this good discretionary thinking or was this a drop in discipline? Difficult to tell. I think it was a bit of both.

The price moved up but I was nervous so I sold 25% at HOPM. But the price moved right through it to my 1.5R target and the limit order was filled. The price was so wild again that I placed a stop order at B/E. B/E was reached soon and there was an expected slide with the fill. Once the trade was over the 5min chart looked very bearish but there were a ton of daily levels below that I was not willing to take another trade on it.

 

 

 

Now usually on my last week of the month, due to very high self sabotage behaviors I usually switch to SIM after I make any profit. So my first instinct was to switch to SIM but I held myself back because I like the setup I saw on AMD.

AMD had huge volume in PM and I really like that it open the premarket at the PDC then dropped 50 cents then for the last PM hour the price worked its way back to PDC. The first 1min cadle was a doji then it really sold off. Then 3 white 1min candles with HLs. I went long when the price broke all the MAs. My target was the 33.16 level and my stop was the bottom of the candle wick. R/R was only a little over 1 but I liked the look of it. And the T/S was really flying so I was hoping it would keep moving in the same direction.

There were huge green buys flying in but the price did not move much. I placed a 1.5R limit order and waited. The price suddenly dropped and that is when I noticed my share size was wrong by 50% (too large). I wish I realized that when I was in the profit I could have shed some shares off, now in the negative find it more difficult. But now my stop out trigger finger was twitchier knowing my incorrect share size and I stopped out at the break of the 32.7 level and not the bottom of the wick as planned.

The price instantly reversed on the penny of my stop. I had to walk away from the platform after that because I knew it was going to go back up and reach my target. And I really wish I stopped trading live after my first winning trade. When I came back to the platform I switched my platform to SIM and then took a look at AMD and yep the price had punch through my target. That is when I noticed I forgot to remove my limit order which was triggered as a short. So I had to switch the platform back to live and cover.

 

I did take a nice reversal with AAPL in SIM. I usually don’t try reversals since it always goes bad. So it was nice to have a reversal winner.

 

Score cards (live trades).

MAT	AMD
86%	76%

 

What I did good today:  I can say that both my trade ideas were correct and if properly executed it would have been a profitable day.

What I am grateful from today?  I am grateful for only being -0.7R down today. My self destructive behaviors were in full gear today so I was lucky to get out with not too much damage.

What do I need to improve on:  Watch the share size this week. Though I usually am quite solid at it, the wrong share size is my most common self sabotage weapon I use against myself.

[Rob C 824]

Friday 11/01/2019

I had a well-being score of 7/10 this morning. Due to my wife having car troubles I was unable to trade yesterday. Today was the last day of my trading month (I always end the month on a Friday).

I took 2 live trades this morning with BABA.

My watchlist today was: AAPL, BABA, MU, AMD, ANET and PINS. I didn’t take PINS that seriously because I did not have shares to short. My game plan was brief, no trading before 1min except for BABA.

BABA had a good quarter, popped in premarket than dropped and slowly moved back to the positive all in PM. Thus, the daily showed a nice hammer for the day. I had a strong bias that the price will pop at the open and if I could get in when it broke the 179.30 tech level I would go long. 15 seconds before the open I saw a L2 signal and went long. This was a bit too aggressive and not well disciplined. The 180.41 daily level was my target with 178.70 as my stop. Though in normal trading that stop would have been OK but for premarket that was a bit tight and should have at least went half shares. But I went full shares I was so confident. But, looking back that was too reckless.

I placed a limit order to sell half my shares just below the 179.80 level which was both a daily and PM level and is at ~1.5R. Luckily the price did pop at the open and my order was filled. Then the price dropped really fast and I should have exited the trade, but thought to set an order at B/E. Wow so much for the stop order, the price flew through my B/E with such a big slide I gave almost all of my profit back in the bad fill.

Then the trade looked like a short with this high volume reverse hammer and two very large sells at the bid. I hope that was the reason and not revenge for the bad exit, but I flipped the position and went short. It was a tight stop at 179.02 daily with a target of 177.94.

I did place a limit order at the 1.5R to help me be more patient, but the bad exit on the previous trade had me a little jittery. So I sold 50% at 1R. But after that I partialled better, with 25% at 2R (VWAP) and 1/8 shares at 4R (200MA-5min). Then sold the last 1/8 at a new 1min high.

 

 

I also took a trade with AAPL in SIM for +1R.

 

Score cards (live trades).

BABA	BABA
81%	87%

 

What I did good today:  I can say that both my trade ideas were correct.

What I am grateful from today?  I am grateful for ending the month on a +2R day. I know I didn’t execute well today, so the profit helps take the sting away.

What do I need to improve on:  Too aggressive on the first trade on the entry and not aggressive enough on the exit. Essentially, I need a lot of work on trade management. But, at least I feel like I am making progress this month.

 

[Rob C 824]

 

Live trading summary of the month of October.

An interesting month. I made 34 trades, which is about average. I am flat again for the month (as usual) but I think positively of this month. I was down -8R by the halfway point. I made a few adjustments and I ended up the month up +0.5R.

The adjustments I made:

First, I switched so I only have one montage. I started taking two trades at once and I was doing well, but I knew that was a bad habit and I needed to stop. Once I did I was better at reading the tape, because I could focus completely on it.

 

Second, was I moved my B/E stop outs by 4 cents (not in my favor). I missed two HUGE runs early in October by the stock dropping down and stopping me out at B/E by 1 or 2 cents and going on for 10R runs. 

 

Third, I lowered my R from $30 to $10. I always used a R that was the maximum I could handle mentally. But that is not correct. I need to place it in a sweet spot. High enough I feel I am trading live but not stressed about the money. Actually I am increasing now from $10 to $15 next week.

 

Finally, I set up buttons that automatically setup a limit order at 1.5R for a 50% selling of shares. I take partial profits way to early. With that limit order in and on my screen I have more patience waiting for it. A lot of members of my chatroom set a limit order at 2R, but my data shows that very few of my trades make it to 2R. But 1.5R is common enough to make it worth while.

 

Though I create a score card for each trade, I don’t track it any more on a monthly level. I am glad to say I did not hit the max daily loss on any day this month (and the last 9 months).

 

Goals for November:

1)    Don’t go hulk.

2)    Learn to control your emotions after a loss.

3)    Keep using the limit order on 1.5R

4)    Increase risk per trade $15.

5)    Keep improving health.

6)    Keep making SIM trades on 5/10/15 min ORBs

7)    Start taking small live 5/10/15 min ORBs. At least once a week.

8]    Take a break with the Van Tharp course for traders. There was one recent chapter actually took a month, working almost every day, to finish. It burned me out for the course and I need a break from it. At least a week, but I am OK restarting in December.

9)    Work on being able to manage a trade with a bad entry. Either exit or take shares off the trade to renormalize the risk.

10) Allow a third trade if a previous trade was exited well early for a tactical trade management purpose.

11) Stop out at B/E if price reached 1R and retraced.

12) I can look at P/L window again once the trading session is over.

13) The goal is to make money. Stop caring if you are right or wrong about a trade. If it was a good setup and well managed, you will always be right.

 

Plan for next week.

BABA is in play at the open (1min ORBs) but not showing much for the 2/5/15min ORBs. AAPL is only in play for the 5min ORB.  MU choppier than usual and only should be a focus if gapping big or unusually high volume.

 

Edited November 4, 2019 by Rob C

[Rob C 824]

Worse day in 9 months. A bit ironic I wrote in my monthly summary last night that I hadn’t hit max loss in 9 months.

I am not trying to place a blame, though it will sound like it. I had an incident on Friday morning, after the trading session, which completely threw me mentally. I couldn’t focus on Friday and Saturday. But on Sunday I thought I recovered and then traded live this morning.

Wow, I wasn’t myself from the moment the opening bell rang. I was breaking rules without any second thought. Finally, when I was down 1.5Xmax loss I was just waiting for the platform to auto liquidate my position as I requested through my broker. But it didn’t happen. I finally hit the panic point and exited my position at 2.5XMax Loss. Of course the stock instantly reversed the moment after I exited my position and went for a big run where I would have made a killing. I then immediately turned off my platform and walked away.

Looking back on it now the reversal was a good thing. I shouldn’t be rewarded for breaking my rules. Maximum pain is what should happen.

I checked my emails with my broker and I see the request for the liquidation of my position and no new trades when I reached unrealized+realized loss of 1.5Xmax loss. Then I saw the broker saying they can’t do that. Not sure why I missed that I thought I had that risk control for months. I requested it again today and hopefully they are able to comply.

I have a reasonably sophisticated way of determining if I am physically able to trade. If what is preventing you is completely in your head it is a bit vague to set limits. I guess if you are not sure if you are ready, you are not.

I will be on SIM only until I know I am ready to go back. Hopefully, everyone else fared better today.

 

 

[Mike B 623]

22 hours ago, Rob C said:

An interesting month. I made 34 trades, which is about average. I am flat again for the month (as usual) but I think positively of this month. I was down -8R by the halfway point. I made a few adjustments and I ended up the month up +0.5R.

That is progress when you compare it to where you started. Slow grind and climb to constantly being profitable, but in the end it will be worth it.

[Rob C 824]

1 hour ago, Mike B said:

That is progress when you compare it to where you started. Slow grind and climb to constantly being profitable, but in the end it will be worth it.

Thanks Mike

[Rob C 824]

Tuesday 11/05/2019

I had a well-being score of 7.5/10 this morning. Due to my rule breaking day yesterday I am on SIM until further notice. And I quit drinking soda as a punitive action (ah, dying for a soda).

Undisciplined trading today. Took 6 trades, 3 winners and 3 losers and I am red for the day. That really shows lack of discipline. When the discipline kicks in on SIM I will know it is time to return live. 

Did a lot of tape watching today and learned a bit. I even rewatched my trading video twice to watch the tape again.