Live Journal Exercise – Learning to Trade an Edge like a Casino

[Mike B 623]

April 29, 2019 - $AMD (Partial x 2)

I took a trade for a 15 minute ORBD, but it was a little outside my edge with regards to the risk to reward. This was mostly due to getting a bad entry, which also contributed to having to exit at the break even after taking a partial. 2nd sample set is complete, which fell on a good week since I will be traveling a lot this week and won't be able to trade Thursday or Friday.

Sample Set Results

      P G S P E S P P P S G 12 13 14 S P S S P 20

[Mike B 623]

April 30, 2019 - No trades

I had $WDC, $GE, and $GM on the watchlist today and did not see 5 min Orb or 15 min Orb that met my trading edge. I currently developing my next sample set for next week. I do not believe, I will be able to trade the rest of the week due to work; however, I might be able to get 30 minutes in tomorrow, but we will see.

[Mike B 623]

May 6, 2019 - 3 Trades on $AMD (1 partial and 2 stops)

Well after having 5 long days away from the market, I was ready to get back at it. Unfortunately, I failed miserably at ensuring I got back into the market correctly. I got 4 hours of sleep, woke up and traveled 2 1/2 hours to work getting in around 4:45am to start my pre-market routine. I was behind from the beginning in my entire routine and it reflected in the way I traded today. I got all I deserved. The best part, although I can't say I like it, is that the market did not reward me for my extremely bad behavior on entries. 

I will say that my discipline on stopping out saved the day.

[Mike B 623]

May 7 through 10 

I observed a valuable lesson this week. Just like in life, to do something well you must be focused on it and can not just do it to do it. In trading this can have some serious consequences. For the past four days, I have been forcing trading. By this I mean, I had time to conduct my pre-market routine and trade the open, but my post market routine and reviews I could not get done, because of the enormous amounts of other things in my life going. The overwhelming feeling of being over tasked definitely slipped into my trading this week and I am just glad I was able to maintain my discipline with risk management which help persevere my capital. 

In all I took 6 trades this week 3 on Monday and 3 on Thursday, all of which were outside my edge. My results were 4 stop outs, 1 partial, 1 hit profit target (although my execution was terrible, so I gave most of it back to my broker).

Now for the good news, next week is a new week. 

[Mike B 623]

May 14, 2019 - $AMD (1 Stop, 1 Target)

Well it has been a while since I posted within a sample set. I took longer than normal to design this sample set as I wanted to focus on a couple of key items I been having issues with. This sample set I working on executing my trade plan properly without adjusting it in the middle. I post the parameters later tonight as I am running short on time before I need to head back to work.

Below are my first two trades of the new sample set.

1st Trade - I entered too early and could not remember if I had inputted my stop loss correctly for my hotkey, so I exited and reset my stop to the technical level and looked for the proper entry.

2nd Trade -  I entered at what I think is a good spot. I took the first partial when the momentum stopped, my second partial (which was actually an all-out) was near the PCL. I could have sworn that I hit my partial cover button, but I guess not. Also the trade log shows almost a 8 sec delay in the last two fills. I am going to have to check the account after the close today to see if it was just a delayed fill or if I hit the cover all button later.

Sample Set Results

S P 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

[Mark D. 435]

Happy to see you posting again Mike 

[Mike B 623]

4 hours ago, Mark D. said:

Happy to see you posting again Mike 

Thanks Mark,

Yeah the last few weeks have been chaos for me outside of trading. Finally got the side items in check and can focus back on trading again.

[Mike B 623]

May 15, 2019 - $TEVA (1 Target)

Since going live the middle Wednesday of the month, has traditionally been my biggest losing day. For whatever reason, I would always have extended losses on this day. So for today, I was more than happy to only take one trade and let it be a winner. I was not pressing my luck.

1st Cover - Was a quick pop down which from the time I pressed the hotkey would have been a great move.

2nd Cover - That was at the profit target.

All Out - I exited when the stock pop quickly back to my 1st out and stuck with my profit taking plan of letting the last bit go further or stop it out at my 1st out..

Sample Set Results

S P P  4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

[Rob C 824]

5 hours ago, Mark D. said:

Happy to see you posting again Mike 

Agreed. Your posts are always appreciated Mike. Your journal entries are what I hope mine will look like one day.

Edited May 15, 2019 by Rob C

[Mike B 623]

May 16, 2019 - $CSCO, $MU, $AMD (Fought with FOMO all day and did not take a trade)

I didn't get much rest last night, so it felt like I was behind every move today, which added more and more FOMO after each missed entry. Today's journal I pointed out where I looked at possibility entering but didn't because I couldn't analyze the data quick enough to determine if I had a good risk to reward ratio. Overall a good day, as out of the 4 entries only 1 truly met my trade criteria. 

Sample Set Results

S P P  4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

[Mike B 623]

May 17, 2019 - $AMAT (2 Partials)

Adding the post a little late this weekend, as I was this weekend picking my son up from his 1st year of college.

1st Trade - I saw a good setup on $AMAT, so I entered. I was a little emotional for some reason and took a quick profit. I stopped out early because of the early out, otherwise I would have been able to hold the stock through the second pullback.

2nd Trade - I got back into the trade when I realized that I did not handle my emotions with profit taking and that my original trade plan was good. I executed a much better profit taking plan in this trade. My emotions were more in check on the second trade. I added a range order to this trade once I took my second out. I am going to continue to do this if the price action allows me to input the range order.

Sample Set Results

S P P P P 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Edited May 21, 2019 by Mike B

[Mike B 623]

May 20, 2019 - $MU (Stopped Out) $INTC (Partial)

Today was a sloppy day of trading. I was so focused on my entries that I failed to look at the larger time frame and realize that I was trading outside of my edge. Both trades today were terrible execution of my designed trade plan. Thankfully, I had good risk management which allowed me to walk away with minimal losses. I did get rewarded for bad behavior today. 

The trade I should have taken was a 15 ORBD on $AMD. A perfect setup with a perfect entry near VWAP. I just missed it as I looked away at $INTC. The move already happened so if I entered later the Risk to Reward was no longer there. In the end it was a growing day. Stopping out on the first trade is becoming easier and easier. 

Sample Set Results

S P P P P S P 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

[Mike B 623]

May 21, 2019 - $AMD (Partial)

I took 1 live trade on $AMD a couple minutes before the 15 minute candle closed, but I saw the pullback towards VWAP, rejection of VWAP, and a break of the previous 1 minute. Along with this the moving averages were above on both the 1 and 5 minute charts, so I entered. I got a partial and was looking for it to go to the 200 moving average on the 15 minute for a second partial and let it run to the profit target, but it pullback and I got stopped out at the breakeven.

Unfortunately, I could not trade longer than the first 30 minutes due to work, but looking at the price action this evening, that is probably a good thing.

Sample Set Results

S P P P P S P P 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

[Mike B 623]

May 22, 2019 - $S (Stopped)

I entered too quickly and should not have taken the entry were I did. I entered at the low of the day instead of a pullback towards VWAP and break. My entry should have been 4 minutes later (Maybe) it didn't break the previous candle, so I should not have entered there either but this would have been a better entry than the one I took.

This is what happens when  you trade a stock that is not in play (Rule 7)

Sample Set Results

S P P P P S P P S 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

[Tommy 55]

How many tickets are you watching at the same time? I watch 3 at the moment. I wish I could watch more  but the truth is I am hardly capable (read not yet) of keeping an eye on all of them. But still, with just 1 you need to be a bit lucky I think and picky on what you are watching. I travel a lot for work, spend about 100 nights or more per year  in a hotel and those days the past months I could always see just 1. I find it not enough to be safe.