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NickAbrams

Longer Time Frame MA's Chop me up

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Here are some trades I took Today.  I took an ORB on MU then a couple of Vwap reversals.  Here is the 5 Minute Chart.  Today I decided to use my Toolbar that changes Time Frames very quickly for when I review trades.  I had never checked the longer time frames like the 30 minute and 60 minute.  I found something very interesting and wanted to share. The first trade was an acceptable Opening Range breakdown. Good consolidation to vwap before the break.  But it went against me.  I have have a much better understand for why.

I am curious, do institutions use 30 and 60 minute time frames to trade off of?  Today was a choppy day.   Now I'm thinking, how many failed trades have I had going short into strong supports like these.

What do you guys think?  I think I really need to keep an eye on this.  But What I would hate is if I get too much information in my head that I never find a trade after all.  Do you guys Have any trades that chopped you up similar to this and then it turned out to be a 30 or 60 minute ma?

Thanks for reading. Let me know if the pictures came through well.

MU 5 minute Dec 28.png

MU 60 minute Dec 28.png

Recap for the Day Dec 28 

 

Edited by NickAbrams

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Here it is again.  This is great information.  See that Christmas tree looking thing? I call that Persistence not over trading.

JD Chopped  Dec 28 30 min.png

Edited by NickAbrams

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Great Recap and great questions you are asking yourself and all of us. Asking those type of questions, even if you dont find the answers to them yet, will make you a better trader.

I want to focus on one of those questions. . . Who uses the longer time frames?

Lets think about who doesn't use the longer time frames. Many people in our chat stick to the 1 minute, 5 minute and level 2 price action. This is neither bad or good. Just a style preference.

Traders who want to be in and out of trades very quickly dont use the longer time frames. Traders who only trade the open will most likely use smaller time frames. Traders who tend to revenge trade wont use the longer time frames. . . 

I researched this same exact question you are posing a while back, and I found as a general rule that the bigger the fish, the longer the time frames used. Lets take one specific example from one of the biggest fish . . .

"Warren Buffett is taking a big bite of Apple. Very big. The CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) told CNBC on Friday that his company bought about 75 million shares of Apple stock during the first three months of the year. That adds to 165 million shares that Berkshire had at the end of last year.May 4, 2018"

Do you think Warren Buffet entered his position of 75 million shares over three months based off the 1 minute charts? 5 minute? 15 minute? Or do you think he wanted to see the bigger picture. The overall trend, using the Hourly, Daily, Weekly, and Quarterly Charts and using longer time frame MA's. How long is Warren Buffet planning to hold those shares for? Months if not years! Imagine if someone took a short on AAPL for a 5 minute new low the moment Warren Buffet was filling his shares on a daily support level knowing that almost no amount of shorts would eat up his longs. (I understand Warren Buffet would never execute the trades himself, but just using this as an example).

Now think about all the traders, institutions, algos, hedge funds. etc . . . that are in between the 1 minute micro traders, and the Long Term Investors. Each will use different time frames, with different strategies, different risk tolerances, different holding lengths. Someone like Andrew, focuses primarily on the 1 and 5 minute charts and he makes a killing nearly every day. So each of us, including you Nick, need to find our trading style that fits us and utilize the proper information for that style and then ignore everything else and not get bombarded with paralysis by analysis and execute our plan day in and day out.

 

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Wow.  That is really interesting.  That makes perfect sense. This is another piece of the puzzle.  I think I know what I need to do.   I have been circling around trying to find that one thing I am missing when I have been neglecting the fundamentals of every trade.   That is what I should focus on everyday.  There is work to be done.   Thank you for sharing.  

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