J3Lda 7 Posted March 22, 2021 (edited) Fellow Bear Bull Traders, I would like to share with you the Equity Simulator. Another possible name for it could be Expectations Manager. What the tool does: The tool calculates the likely Equity curve and distribution of daily R given the probability of R outcomes in every trade. It also compares the Equity curve when using a Fixed amount R vs using R as a % of Equity. Motivation: As part of my Trading plan, I've set rules for increasing and decreasing position size based on my trading results, as well as moving from Live to Sim and vice versa. But I was feeling that these rules were quite arbitrary - I was wondering how many Red/Green days a week/month I should reasonably expect in the long run, and what kind of profitability I would actually need to meet my goals. Learning how to execute each trade properly is paramount but I felt this would add some perspective and peace ("do I really have to have red days, given my win rate?":) Alternatives: EdgeWonk analyzes individual trades and seeks for potential improvement in entries, exits, and trade management in general. (thanks @KyleK29 for the suggestion) In contrast, this Simulator can't be used for tweaking individual strategies - it focuses more on the bigger picture and your average trading results. It could be however used to compare your results using two styles of trade management - e.g. Style 1 : 60% chance of -1R, 40% chance of 2R vs Style 2: 80% chance of -1R, 20% chance of 4R Further comments can be found in individual cells and on the second sheet. Please let me know any suggestions or questions. Link to the Excel file: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SUEfrZskJOWpwASR7sUvB2LnOrkxgF2d/view?usp=sharing Have a nice day and don't forget to hold the line! JanJ Edited March 22, 2021 by J3Lda 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gerard 0 Posted November 11, 2022 great tool, thanks! does anyone know what the random no are? do i need to reset them or just leave it? thnx Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
J3Lda 7 Posted November 11, 2022 Thanks Gerard, the random numbers from 0 to 1 are generated by an Excel function. They recalculate every time anything in the file changes, which is how it's supposed to be. They provide the random character of all the results in the file. So the chart never looks the same. If you have any further questions, feel free to ask. Jan Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
