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Christopher

Chris's daily trade talk!

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Always like the video recaps ! 

Awesome trades on AMD and CCL !  Well done !

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Posted (edited)

@tntp45 Thanks! 🙂

Fun day today .. interesting price action, really nice play on $PLUG though didn't manage it that great, i give myself a B- xd 

 

2 different ascending triangle plays on $PLUG today, notice how in one price action runs, and in the other it comes back to test the level it broke

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entry

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Edited by Christopher Patterson
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Love the $PLUG trade - picture perfect. Looks like 3+ touches to the penny, right at VWAP with volume validation. Beauty.

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1 hour ago, Valentin said:

Love the $PLUG trade - picture perfect. Looks like 3+ touches to the penny, right at VWAP with volume validation. Beauty.

Thanks!

This was a trade where I should have just entered and then left my house for like an hour haha, with no moving averages above, such a great entry, and a bullish daily, there was a really good chance it'd run, I didn't internalize that until after the trade.

Enter trade -> partial 20% and 2:1 - > move stop to break even -> take my dog for a hike 

that was the play : P 

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Posted (edited)

 

I think the volume tells an interesting story here

image.thumb.png.c287e8ed3ae4914a72f506e1f0675aba.png

1. Lack of bull sentiment, we broke out of a resistance and the increase in volume wasn't all that significant

2. Bears jump in to push the price back bellow the resistance to re-test bull sentiment

3. Bears pushed price down which would give the bulls a better buying opportunity, however, the lack of volume is an obvious tell that the bulls aren't interested.

4. Having confidence there is little to no upward force on price, bears re-enter to push price lower again

Also, a bear flag entry i noticed with similar volume confirmation, an obvious tell that the bulls aren't around 

image.thumb.png.9dbe55df4eda021729f6bb10946ee74e.png

R.I.P Reckful 

Edited by Christopher Patterson
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On 7/1/2020 at 10:41 PM, Christopher Patterson said:

@tntp45 Thanks! 🙂

Fun day today .. interesting price action, really nice play on $PLUG though didn't manage it that great, i give myself a B- xd 

 

2 different ascending triangle plays on $PLUG today, notice how in one price action runs, and in the other it comes back to test the level it broke

image.thumb.png.80fb134355136949bdf51ccca779fa0c.png

entry

image.thumb.png.b071936cd1fb013c45272b82f49acce8.png

 

Hi Chris,

May I ask you a question?  

I can understand risk management, I can understand setups. But most of the time I cannot find the right stock and the right moment to trade in real time.

I think the golden period for entry is less than 1 minute, and we have to attend to it at least 5 minutes before and stare closely at it.

Very often, I pay too much attention on a stock that finally fail. Then I start to browse other stocks for trade and sadly find that I have missed many opportunities. Even worse, I browse around 10 stocks and still cannot find a setup I recognise, then I dont know what to do during the day.

So the question is how can you search for the proper stock like $PLUG, and execute at the right moment? And how do you spend your time to prepare for a trade during the session?

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Posted (edited)

@Kendrick C. What Up Ken! First, I want to say that I'm still learning too and there's a lot to say on this topic, so the following is my opinion...

To start, I spent around 30 minutes just watching the market before I took that triangle play on $PLUG, and in that time a lot of plays went without me, you just have to accept this, even plays that I am 95% sure are about to happen I'm okay going without me if I can't limit my risk, there are a lot of times that I need a stock to pull back to a resistance/support, retest, then I can enter with a tight stop, if it just goes, it goes, it's not worth chasing, even if you did enter and it did work, you're just reinforcing a bad habit that'll bleed you out as time goes on. You don't need to hit every trade you see, if you can trade the first 1 hour the market is open and take 1-3 A+ setups, and you get very good at managing your trades, you can make excellent R's per week, I'm talking 15+ R's per week which is actually amazing if you extrapolate it out for even just a year. 

So, with that out of the way, I believe that a first principle of price action is that VOLUME moves PRICE, i.e if  nobody is interested in buying and selling shares, the price is not going to move, notice $SPY during the covid breakout

image.thumb.png.df02c17061c4aaa39500e3955ccf6a4f.png

Larger volume => large price moves 

When a stock has a catalyst day traders get excited because the volume for that particular day should be significantly higher than previous days (this is called RVOL) and.. increase in volume => more significant price movement.

7 hours ago, Kendrick C. said:

So the question is how can you search for the proper stock like $PLUG, and execute at the right moment? And how do you spend your time to prepare for a trade during the session?

So, all that being said, i look for stocks that have a significant catalyst (downgrade/upgrade, some novel news, maybe earnings, anything i feel is significant) OR are trading with high volume in the pre-market (more on that later) 

Typically stocks that have a strong catalyst are trading much more than usual in the pre-market, but it's not always the case. I pull my stocks from 3 different sources, the first is a list I keep on hand of around 20 stocks that typically have moves intra day, have a pretty good spread, and decent float. Here is that list... 

image.png.6718ccc970bea88a718915598ddb820a.png

Second, I look at the BBT pre-market show on youtube and go through EVERY single stock myself, I look each stock up on finviz.com, I look for a catalyst, I look at float, I generally look at ATR (I just want to see it .50+ really), I look at the level 2, and I look for daily levels / pre-market levels myself ( this is so important imo, in the beginning you can rely on carlos / norm, but you should really be finding your own levels and making your own game plan) 

Third, and one that I'm really surprised more people don't do...I have a volume scanner that I run right when I open up DAS, here's what the settings are ... 

image.png.96ba684c6c544df816f0be08a3d3cce7.png

Typically I get about 5-15 stocks to pop up and I sift through those, the ones that have good, tradeable levels, or just insane volume, or just anything that I think is interesting I'll look up on finviz and add them to my list of potential stocks for the day. 

After adding the BBT stocks I like and the ones from the volume scanner I have a list of maybe 10-15 stocks, and I go through all those more carefully to see which ones i'm interested playing intra day, and which ones I think are good for an opening play. For an opening play I'm looking for a level in the premarket that's trading near where price is that has acted as both a significant support / resistance, and I want to trade off this level in the first 5 minutes, for example $GE yesterday gave such a sick 2 min orb off a really obvious level .. 

image.thumb.png.711dbcba6f89aea1639b445d09bcb847.png

So I get hopefully 3 stocks to watch at the open, looking specifically for a 1 / 2 / 5 min orb, and after about 5 minutes, I start going through all the stocks I have, which is quite a bit, and looking for anything setting up. I want to add here that not everyone, and probably even most people don't trade like this, they like to just watch 3-5 stocks throughout the day, you gotta find what works for you

I wake up at 4:30, get a workout in, get some food in me, take a shower/shave, I'm at my computer right around 6am, and I spend 30 minutes doing all the things I just mentioned, and try to maybe take a few minutes sometime prior to the open to take a few deep breaths, maybe step outside and just get away from the screen in preparation for a solid hyper focused hour of trading. 

In terms of "executing" you just gotta trade a lot man! No way around that one, I feel like I have a pretty high hit rate for opening plays in the first 5 minutes, and that's because I'm very meticulous about finding levels in the pre market, if I can't find a stock with nice tradeable premarket levels, I probably wont touch it the first 5 minutes. As for the ABCDs / Triangles / range plays / parabolic reversals, just trade! Cut yourself some slack, don't worry about P&L, worry about identifying trades, entering trades, and managing trades! Learning is always priority number 1, always. 

2 things to conclude...

After writing all this, i would image it seems like a lot, and it definitely is, but you get better at finding what you like and don't like, and you'll see a lot of the same stocks pop up day in and day out and have a sense for whether you're interested in them or not. 

Lastly, Make sure you have an idea of what spread is and what's a nice looking level 2, for example...

image.thumb.png.28702070579cf43f165a38d60c35b126.png

There is a ton of liquidity and a 1 cent spread, if the price has a very deliberate move in one direction, the spread still isn't going to change much, so if you get a stop out there wont be much slippage, and if you enter, you should get a good fill. 

Good luck man! You don't have to figure out everything in one day, just everyday try and give a really good 1-3 hours of solid learning, then go live your life! (the only one you're probably gonna get :P) 

-Chris

 

Edited by Christopher Patterson
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Posted (edited)

Weekly Review/Optimization!

Not too proud of R count this month, but I learned a ton and feel like a way better trader going in to July, these videos have been so helpful! 

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Edited by Christopher Patterson

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@Christopher Patterson Thanks for long reply, your comments are always inspiring. To enlarge the search space, I have created a custom formula, ATR%, in trade-ideas and screened around 50 top rated stocks that look familar.

Theme Symbol Name Price ATR % Float (M)
Aerospace SPR Spirit Aerosystems Holdings, Inc 24.02 11 104
Aerospace BA Boeing 186.4 7.8 564
Aerospace SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. 16.12 7.4 175
Aerospace RTX Raytheon Technologies Corporation 62.46 4.7 863
Airlines and Cruiseline NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings 17.72 12.1 213
Airlines and Cruiseline AAL American Airlines Group, Inc 13.82 10.9 419
Airlines and Cruiseline CCL Carnival Corp 17.19 10.8 401
Airlines and Cruiseline UAL United Continental, Inc 36.97 9.9 246
Banks WFC Wells Fargo 25.86 5.4 4,087
Banks BAC Bank of America Corp 24.02 5 8,666
Banks JPM JP Morgan Chase & Co. 95.48 4.3 3,024
China GSX GSX Techedu Inc. 55.12 8.1 83
China IQ Iqiyi, Inc ADS 23.36 7.6 315
China PDD Pinduoduo, Inc ADS 84.51 6.3 588
China BILI Bilibili, Inc ADS 46.87 5.2 240
Energy OXY Occidental Petroleum Corp 18.48 8.6 899
Energy OKE ONEOK, Inc 33.62 8.4 412
Enterainment PLAY Dave & Busters Entertainment, Inc 14.01 12.9 30
Enterainment DKNG DraftKings Inc. - Class A 34.81 10.1 240
Enterainment PENN Penn National Gaming, Inc 32.95 9.5 116
Enterainment MGM MGM Resorts Intl 17.34 7.8 469
COVID-19 VXRT Vaxart, Inc 8.01 17.5 46
COVID-19 INO Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc 21.7 16.6 142
COVID-19 NVAX Novavax, Inc 77.77 9.6 58
COVID-19 MRNA Moderna, Inc. - Common Stock 59.68 6.9 272
COVID-19 DVAX Dynavax Technologies Corp 8.5 9.1 77
COVID-19 SRNE Sorrento Therapeutics, Inc 6.11 8 177
Others ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc 47.13 9.2 118
Others ACB Aurora Cannabis, Inc 12.7 7.1 109
Others BYND Beyond Meat, Inc. 148.72 7.1 57
Pandemic VIAC ViacomCBS, Inc 23.81 7.3 351
Pandemic ROKU Roku, Inc 119.5 6.2 101
Pandemic PTON Peloton Interactive, Inc. 57.97 5.7 176
Retail M Macy's, Inc 6.89 9.2 309
Retail GPS Gap, Inc 13.04 8.9 205
Social Media TWTR Twitter, Inc 30.86 4.5 767
Social Media SNAP Snap, Inc 23.76 4.3 863
Technology SQ Square, Inc 110.17 4.6 357
Technology AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc 52.28 4.4 1,164
Technology MU Micron Tech, Inc 50.62 4.3 1,106
Vehicles WKHS Workhorse Group, Inc 14.68 12.4 70
Vehicles CAR Avis Budget Group, Inc 23.65 11.3 57
Vehicles PLUG Plug Power, Inc 8.58 8 320
Vehicles NIO NIO, Inc 7.86 7.6 754
Vehicles LYFT Lyft, Inc. 33.11 6.1 238
Vehicles UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. 30.76 5.2 1,249
Work From Home FSLY Fastly, Inc. 82.88 8 71
Work From Home CLDR Cloudera, Inc 12.63 7 255
Work From Home NET Cloudflare, Inc. 35.38 6.5 150
Work From Home WORK Slack Technologies, Inc. 30.66 6.1 396
Work From Home CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. 101.53 5.5 149
Work From Home ZM Zoom Video Communications, Inc. 251.25 4.2 165
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@Kendrick C. Yep, those look like all the usual suspects lol! 

Just a final note, make sure you give much more weight to the 2-3 stocks you have deemed "in play" for the day, good luck man! 

-Chris

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Posted (edited)

Yo! Max loss day for me, some not so great trading, but not awful, and definitely learned a lot. I made 2 longish videos going in to detail on all my trades, but I didn't realize that obs wasn't picking up my audio. I don't have time to re-make.

Hope y'all had a good day! 

-Chris

*Edit..* had some downtime 

Analyze!!!!!! AHH!!!

VPA !!!!!!!!!!!!!! OP!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Edited by Christopher Patterson
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Posted (edited)

Not much to report today, watched the market super closely for an hour, was thinking about a fallen angel play on $NIO that would have worked nice, but there were too many heavy bids below and I didn't think it worth the risk. I also saw a nice ABCD on DVAX but was late to the party 

image.thumb.png.4f059d17dec14471ef6ab6f8f594b6d0.png

blah blha blhjablajsdflj;aldfj 

I also saw a nice PR on $NIO, the hammer is too long but it would have worked out well 

image.thumb.png.cd38b4bee25a0b384684f6056c57cdf7.png

Also took some PR's on SQ, technically after my trading session, I only go till 7:30 my time, I'm gonna cut myself some slack on that one and just chalk it up to throwin some trades out to practice. I had great discipline, I didn't see anything I really liked, so i just didn't take a trade. The premarket price action on almost everything has felt really sloppy the last couple days and that's messin with my early game, as for the ABCDs / pennants really nothing i saw today that was all that clean, except maybe $DVAX. 

Good luck! 

Edited by Christopher Patterson

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